I had no internet yesterday so hence no blog post, I will post the trial lays report first thing tomorrow. A nice winner for FTS yesterday and yet another system 3 winner. No FTS games today, system 3 and 15 min games are on there way to subscribers of those systems. I am out all dat today going to the Lane so will not be on email etc.

No football today but an action packed weekend coming up with a fair few bets it looks like, so hopefully boost the bank further. Today sees the big Roulette Launch, I have included this in the monthly update to the gambling systems manual which will be available to download on Monday but I will give you a very quick preci again here so you hopefully don’t get sucked in. The roulette system is lowly priced because it is not sales they are interested in, the manual recommends a casino which you sign up to and deposit money and then the manual author gets a hefty commission, if they get 100 people join the casino they get a cool $250 dollars for every sign up Affiliates are being offered 100% commission to promote it, purely to get as many out there as possible and maximise the casino bonuses. Spinning through the bonus allocation will cost you a lot of money, roulette play will not count towards any bonus and I STRESS roulette cannot be beat, that is why Vegas can spend Billions building casinos, it is a license for them to print money. Please do not get sucked in, these guys have already used this formula for Blackjack, Roulette previously and even Bingo sites, all to earn huge casino/bingo site commission, makes me sick, particularly when they purport to be gamblers, they have not got a good bet in them just make money off other people losing.

Regarding the odds article yesterday a good point was made by a reader regarding football, quite often you can find “bookmaker” mistakes in the lower leagues as not so much information is available formwise and often there is an over reaction to teams in form. You have to do a bit of study but if you do spot a team at bigger odds than you feel it should be keep it to yourself and back it quick as the odds are never around long and it will be difficult to get a decent sum on anywhere. The article seemed to go down well so I hope to share more similar info with you over the coming weeks.

Roulette – unsubscribe. That is your thought for the day.

I will be posting an update for the trial lays on here later today.

Two lovely FTS wins last night, plenty of money in the kicker and Spurs through to the Cup quarter finals should have seen me go to bed contented last night but a late email from Compiler Systems offering me a VIP Roulette System soon wiped that feeling away. Hot on the heels from the Blackjack system launched a while back my heart sank as I know more people will fall for it. Having mentioned mathematics yesterday in my review of Betfair conspiracy I received a fair amount of mail asking me to explain what I meant in more detail and with this Roulette launch I feel it is apt to talk about more about maths and odds today. It is not a rant or lecture but hopefully will help those who do not understand betting fully and dive in and buy these systems why they do not work. All gambling revolves not around opinion but Mathematics and understanding how the maths and the odds work.

Starting with roulette, it is and always will be a mathematically perfect game. Every spin of the wheel has exactly the same odds before the outset and they never change and can never be beat. There is simply no such thing as a winning roulette system and no bet you can place that will turn the fortunes in your favour, the wheel owner be it a live real casino or online casino will always have a significant edge. The true odds of hitting your number on a roulette wheel with two green sections – zero and double zero – are 37/1, the casino will only ever pay you 35/1. That is their edge and whether you do split bets, colour bets, odds or evens the odds paid are never equal to the outcome so the house will always win.

The only way you can win is if you walk on a roulette wheel, hit your number take your money and run. I have played roulette in Vegas, not with any aspirations of winning but knowing I will probably lose my money. I have played it purely recreationally, I can sit and have a few sociable beers and it is a slow moving game so for me it is just a chill out and bit of fun. I have won £3000 in one session getting LUCKY, I have also sat and had too many beers and done my brains. The point is I was playing for fun not with any aspirations I could beat the wheel because I could not. No one can and any one claiming they can are simply lying.I have spoken to many croupiers and casino workers and they love people who come in thinking they have a system because they know they have them beat, they want people playing roulette regularly and keep returning because the house odds will win every time.

This new launch of a Roulette System from Compiler Systems is exactly the same as the Blackjack system they launched a few months ago. It will have a method that cannot work and a link promoting a casino that will pay Dan Soulsby et al commissions for signing up to that particular casino. These commissions are considerable and I feature the exact process in my Guide to buying Gambling Scams which is available above. For the Blackjack system they were offering affiliates 100% commission on sales. Why would you do that? Simply all they want are people signed up in the casino and the commissions from there. The manual will mention how you can use the money from the “recommended casino” bonus the casino will offer you when you sign up. In the Blackjack system the bonus was not even eligible for Blackjack and most casinos do not permit using bonuses on Roulette, just in case you get lucky. They want you in the casino and you can use the bonus on the slots which of course again you cannot beat. To achieve any bonus you have to play through a high volume of money, one casino I looked at late last night offer a £32 bonus for your £10 deposit. However to get that bonus you need to play £960 through the casino, the chances of getting £960 play from your initial £10 are extremely slim so you deposit more money to meet your bonus requirements and so it goes on. In a lot of cases as well as paying the casino affiliate – in this case compiler systems – a nice commission for luring you into the casino they will also pay them a commission on your losses for life. That is why this system is launched, the maths behind the roulette wheel cannot be beaten and any promise of income is simple lies, in order to con you into the casino, you lose money whilst they make a fortune from casino affiliate commissions. I implore anyone getting this mail and  know my readership is limited to unsubscribe, taking temptation away. If you are a forum user post it on there as well so others are not fooled as this will be a slick marketing operation.

There is no such method as betting Red after 6 blacks etc etc, I have seen 10-12 of the same colour many times in a casino. Casino owners love that mindset as it is a sure road to the poorhouse.

Talking about odds when it comes to sports betting or horse racing is a bit more complicated but the concept behind things are the same. Odds represent a mathematical percentage chance. If I bet  horses at 2/1 those odds represent a 33.3% chance of my horse winning. To profit I need my horse at this price to win more than 33% of the time. If I don’t achieve that percentage I cannot win ever.

The odds are set by the bookmakers and they factor in all the possibilities and form a price which will include there profit margin, if a horse has a genuine 33.3% chance of winning the bookmaker will not offer you 2/1 as he has no margin, he will offer you 15/8 or 7/4 forcing you to back at a lower price than the true reflection . The people they have doing this are called odds compilers, they are highly paid and have more resources and information to hand than most of us. Hence they do the work, set the odds in their favour and as a result you will struggle to win.

Going back to yesterdays post about which there were specific queries. The odds available on an average from the Betfair Conspiracy System will be around 1.30, that is not a mythical figure, I have access through JG to some serious horse racing databases and that will be the odds over time, you will get odds at 2.0 but you will also get many at 1.1 and 1.15 on Betfair. 1.30 roughly for arguments sake not taking commission into effect represents a 75% chance. That means if I continually back at those average odds, I need to be right 75% of the time to BREAK EVEN. To make money you need to be right 76% of the time or more, obviously to make any decent money you need to be right probably 85% of the time or higher. It is a fact and the information is widely available that these horses do not place 75% of the time, it is around 71% of the time on average over a period. That information is available to anyone and anyone who does some research will see those figures, if they did place 80% or 90% of the time we could all back them blind to place at 1.3 and know we would win. Life is never that easy. The minute the percentage of these horses placing went up simply the odds would be reduced to fall in line and we would still lose. That is the way the game works. Where a roulette wheel has fixed odds a bookmaker be it an industry bookmaker or layers on Betfair simply move their odds to try and steal an edge.

A question I was asked yesterday was if I am so negative about these things how can anyone possibly win at horse race gambling. The answer is not a difficult one. Anyform of gambling if taking it seriously and not just gambling recreationally is hard work. I know plenty of people who make money from betting on horse racing. Some do in-running and have the egde of being at the track or live pictures. The people I know who make money betting on horses work hard and look for bookmakers mistakes, which do happen and generally at the higher end of the market. JG backs decent price horses where he feels the bookmkaer may be out with the price, i.e he makes the horse a 6/1 shot and it is actually available at 8 or 9/1 in the bookmakers. Of course if these mistakes are there the price is not around for long so you need to be on the ball. You also have to have a good understanding of how to arrive at that discrepancy.JG knows by betting the value he will win over the year, if you can back genuine 6/1 shots at 8/1 you will win, but arriving there takes a lot of knowledge and understanding.

Mark Smith and those of you with him will note that in addition to his place lays, Mark finds horses of value at big odds on Betfair and then trades them at a lower price. To do this Mark works 8 or 10 hours a day and gets his rewards for doing it, it is not for me, but that is what he has to do to make money from his style of betting. I had RaceWinningTips mentioned in an email regarding short prices. Yes they do back a lot of short price horses and the winnings from these are negligible, maybe a small profit or loss either side, but they also back decent price horses and have a few winners a month which when you analyse it is where the profit mainly comes, my choice is to back them all as it is easier. I know nobody who makes money backing short price horses personally but I am sure there are people who do, they would have to work hard as they need a higher strike rate to make money, I am not saying it can be done but your judgement when backing shorter prices has to be spot on. A clear example of this is if you back favourites all the time blind you would lose slowly about 8-10% of your bank year on year. That is exactly how I see Betfair Conspiracy panning out a slow bleeding of money.

When analysing betting it is all about the maths and the odds, unfortunately most punters bet with opinion and no regard for this aspect. People think Man Utd will win at home so are prepared to back them at silly short prices. The bookmakers factor this into the prices and will win over the long run. A prime example was just yesterday, a friend of mine was at my house yesterday afternoon and I told him I thought Spurs were banker winners against Bolton last night. he asked me if I was backing them and I said no. He text me after the result that I missed a payday! My logic was sound, I did think Spurs would win and indeed they did but the odds of 2/5 or 1.38 on Betfair were not right for the bet. This is a team that lost to Stoke and Wolves at home, drew with Hull 0-0 at home and beat Birmingham who at the time were in no form with a lucky injury time goal. My reflection of the odds was more in the 1.5 or 1.6 region so I cannot place a bet at 1.38 just because of an opinion. If I did place bets like that I would lose in the long run as I am not betting the value. That is why services such as football betting tipsters will always struggle to make money they back 1.2 home teams and the price is already in the bookmakers favour. Betfair does offer the occasional advantage but with so many users it now dictates the betting market and the good days of yesteryear when you could nick a value price are rare and disappearing. Certainly in the higher end of the horse racing market you may get a bigger price for small stakes but at the short price end after commission it will be negligible unless someone makes a rick offering a price.

For my own systems, each system has a price criteria which I stick to. Because Betfair has changed so much over the years I had to about 18 months ago revisit those odds and adjust them to continue to make the money I wanted to make. Those prices were not plucked out of the sky, if I bet outside those restrictions I would struggle to make money, the inevitable losers would be bigger and therefore it becomes a struggle.

The simple answer is it is highly unlikely that you will make money from an ebook for £37 on Roulette or Place backing as the odds and maths will certainly always be against you. If you are a recreational punter then fine that is your choice, I choose to spend my money going out or on holiday or to see Spurs, if you choose to use yours having a recreational punt I have no problem with it. If however you are serious about making money gambling you need to grasp these concepts. I learned them from people I respect and trust and continue to learn all the time, I do not claim to know everything but a sure part of my success is understanding the maths and looking to steal an edge.

Should be some footy today, certainly FTS and messages will be sent later. In amongst my abundance of email I get system sellers and readers of other blogs/review sites giving me stick saying I do not review things fairly. In lught of that and the recommendaton by some “so called” honest review sites below I detail my thoughts on yesterdays launch Betfair Conspiracy. As I am a gambler not a salesman it does not take me long to see the potential of something hence my reviews are often just a line of advice telling you to avoid it.

Here are the facts and maths behind yesterdays launch from a betting perspective. The manual is quite well written and revolves around betting forecast favourites in the place market, advised staking is 2.5% of your bank and that is the figure for the days betting, it is not altered after every race.

The facts are that the average price of the selections you will back will be between 1.3 and 1.4. There will be the odd one over this but it is likely you will be betting at odds around 1.35. Indeed the first 3 example races in the manual the horse odds in the place market were 1.37, 1.42 and 1.36. Put simply and with commission taken into effect you will have to have a strike rate better than 75% to make money and then it will not be a lot, in fact at those odds less commission it will be miniscule.

I have sat and ran some data for a couple of hours on the qualifying flat races and here are the numbers, I was going to do 2008 and 2009 but 2008 told me all I need to know.

There were 1984 races that qualified of the type listed in the manual, of those the forecast favourite won 37.8%, compared to the actual favourite who won 42% of race so a significant difference unlike the manual which claims there is hardly any difference.

Of those 1984 races the forecast favourite as stated to use in the manual UNPLACED in 567 races or 29% of the time meaning that 71% placed. You would need 75% to place roughly to break even.

Relating that to betting as per the manual from a £200 starting bank

Bet 1 would be £5 at odds of 1.3 less commission it will make you £1.43 if it wins, New Bank= £201.43

Bet 2 wins you £1.43 New Bank = £202.86

Bet 3 wins you £1.43 New Bank = £204.29

Bet 4 on average will lose giving a 75% strike rate therefore losing you £5 and you are now in a negative with a bank of £199.29

Those are the facts, the average odds on Betfair of the horses in 2008 was just over 1.3. Only 71% placed and at that form of betting you cannot make money especially after commission. In 2008 there were also streaks of 8 races twice and 7 horses 4 times that did not place losing you 8 bets on the trot and 7 bets on the trot half a dozen times, tell me how you can win.

Now I add in the sales page claims and affiliate information, you can start with a bank of £50 they say, staking 2.5 % of £50 quid is £1.25 and Betfairs minimum bet is £2.00 so not sure how that works.

On the affiliate page they state “We are absolutely certain that our system will convert like wildfire and we are extremely confident of selling over 500 copies in the first day’s trading alone. Sign up now and make sure that you cash in on this great product.”

So they probably did sell 500 copies yesterday at £37 a pop a cool £18500 in the pockets of them and their affiliates, now anyone who knows anything about racing on betfair knows the Place market has a quarter of the liquidity the win market does and what will 500 people all backing the same horse in the place market do, REDUCE THE ODDS FURTHER!

Surely if I had a place backing system that I knew worked I would operate this way as I would want to back them myself to get best price. I would find the selections, sign up 100 people at £25 a month, back the horses before I send them out, send the selections to the 100 people making me £2500 in subscriptions monthly forever more as I know it makes money. The reason it is in an ebook is because it is a clever system which will bleed you slowly, by the time you realise you are losing the refund period has expired and there is no comeback. Call me cynical but that is my view, the maths cannot possibly stack up ever.

So I go back to the so called blogs and genuine reviewers and refer to my Guide to Buying Gambling Products, which you can get by leaving your details above, even when a site trashes a product and then recommends the next one it is a clever ploy, it offers the site credence if they do not recommend everything, then people jump on board when they do, that does not mean it works, what it does mean is that site serves its purpose it makes the owner affiliate cash.

I am happy for anyone who bought the system to mail me in 3 months, 6 months and then a year and tell me they have made as the site claims “life changing money from a £50 bank using this conspiracy” (I must have missed the bit in the manual that was the conspiracy, it is place backing hardly rocket science or MI5 stuff). I am off to the refund department as I feel I wasted 5 hours of my life and £37.

No footy today. Betfair Conspiracy launches today, I have seen the Joint Venture afiliate page and all the constructed emails which will be making there way to you and also the launch video which provides conclusive proof it works – NOT. I asked for a copy and had no reply, clearly they do not want me to review it which speaks volumes. They are aiming for 500 plus sales today bagging them a nice 15 grand so you can guess my initial thoughts, keep your money in your pocket rather than paying for someone else to go on holiday whilst you lose. Of course if I get a copy I will do review but I have a fair idea that it is more internet marketing sales rubbish. I say to people how many of these do you have to buy before you realise they do not work. The sales copy etc is all professionally done to push the right buttons, I assure you you are not missing out.

I will put a full report of the recent trial lays on Friday. Dutch and Win back to winning ways yesterday and Race Winning Tips a 9/1 winner available at 12/1 in the morning and back on course for the month showing the volatile nature of racing and why long term is the only way to think.

I will have a lot more results and reviews on here in tomorrows post.

No footy today. Not a bad weekend for the football, Inter with the two redcards was the only major blip. That was always going to be tough when it went down to 10 men let alone 9. Having checked this season and getting done by Rangers twice with red cards I have made a decision for those with FTS that pay any attention to what I do, in future if the match is drawing and there is a red card I will be out of it. It would have made a good weekend a great one but hey ho. Two more System 3 wins which I am over the moon about still just the one loss all season which is an incredible record even if i say so myself. That system is no longer for sale I am afraid as it is market sensitive and with the success this season the people who have it are using it so it is unlikely I will re-introduce it at any time. Jg back at the weekend with a 20/1 place (I got 18′s) and then the racing is decimated again by the weather. Mark Smith tipped up the 3-1 Everton- Man Utd score at 60 on Saturday. I have been snowed under with email requests and product reviews. I will be changing the way I do things and will post further details of this at the end of March. This week I will resume posting results and reviews of systems as I am aware some of you do pay heed to them so it is worthwhile. I will always aim to get you away from the scams and we do have a couple on the way yet again. I will be updating the Guide to Buying Gambling Systems weekend which if you have not got it is available above this post.

Must just mention the Spurs, recorded the game and watched it late last night. A decision that went our way at last with the Defoe goal, swings and roundabouts. I think the 4th spot is genuinely between Spurs and Liverpool but there will be twists and turns to come, must check the next Man City manager market!!!! For those in the Elite and Mentor group I hope you are paying attention to our ante post season action from August last year as it looks like I could be in for a fair few quid.

Football mails have gone out or are on the way to subscribers, a quick note you do only get messages for systems you subscribe to, you may have had other messages but that is when I am away and I just send one message for convenience.
I have appeared on a list no idea how, it is either a name change by the list user or my details have been passed on. These particular mails come from a Martin Jones promoting a Layhounds service which as the name implies is laying greyhounds. I have no particular interest in this or the results but a word of warning. He is spouting about these dogs getting beat but there is no liquidity in Greyhound markets on either Betfair or Betdaq, with most of what betting there is taking place in the last 2 or 3 minutes before the race starts. Because of the liquidity issue you will be laying these greyhounds at way over the odds, often twice the bookmaker price or more and will certainly struggle to get the £100 he quotes matched. Laying at these inflated odds will be a recipe for disaster if you are laying dogs that are 4/1 with the bookmaker at 8/1 or 9/1 on Betfair you will get stung as obviously some of these dogs will win. I have followed the markets for a couple of days and it is impossible to get any significant amount on and as an example one dog was 4/1 on the Live bookmaker show and 13.5 on Betfair to get £50 matched. I cannot see anything but problems particularly with it being mass sold, the dogs may get beat but one or two winners will severely dent you betting like this so be careful.

No football today. I have lots of systems I am trialling, using and will be posting reports on them on here over the next few days and the best way to utilise them and the way I wish to utilise them going forward. Hopefully then people can see what I am doing to make them profitable and copy that if they wish, it is about long term and how you look at them. Rather than have one post that goes on forever I will look at them one at time over the next few days so you can understand it easier. I will start with www.racewinningtips.com which I have featured in previous posts for the last couple of months. The facts are the service is 90 points up to Betfair SP, commission would need to be deducted of the winners from the results on the site. I had a lot of email about the service saying it does not perform but that is something I whole heartedely disagree with as I think it purely is a long term profit objective. The full results are on the website at www.racewinningtips.com but I have copied them below. A proper study will show that the service in January lost 20 points from the 2nd January until the 15th but then recovered to end up over 40 points up. This month the same pattern seems to be following by the 13th of this month the service had lost 23 points in its recorded results but has recovered in the last few days to be just 8 points down. In fact yesterdays horse that is recorded as 8.4 Betfair SP in the recorded results I backed at 11am yesterday at 14/1 with the bookmakers and by taking early prices I am not losing on the month. This follows on from what I said on Monday, if in either of those months you jumped ship in the losing spell you have missed the opportunity to win it back and more. I believe from what I have seen and the regularity of winners that long term this will make a tidy income for an easy to use system but it is exactly that a long term project. Sean works hard and I like the way he operates, even if some of the horses are short prices. The bottom line is the service is 80 points up over 3 months and that is my focus rather than looking at a short term loss period. There is no way that service will win every month but it will in my opinion not lose over the longer period. Often when people lose they deride their own luck, “I always lose etc etc”, do consider whether you paper trade long enough or give anything enough time, all betting will have rough periods that is why it is gambling, there is nothing concrete on a daily basis.

I have copied and pasted all the results since November from the website below and the selections are the same as I have received. You can look at the website here www.racewinningtips.com. I will continue to bet these to level stakes taking better prices where possible as selections are posted early and will post regular updates on here.

November

December

January

February

No football today, all the fun for the Bayern FTS game last night. I stayed in at the 1-1 and then flicked over the TV when the market suspended to see Klose scoring from about 5 yards offside, he was miles offside, and then Betfair packed up to give a nice anxious wait but all turned out well, I know some of the mentor group shared the anxiety, all part of the mental toughening. I already have my top TV moment of 2010 which although only February I cannot see being removed. I was watching the Porto Arsenal game, (I make a point of dleiberately not watching games I trade, one so it does not hinder my decision making by thinking a team is on top so they must score etc, and two because it gets me too excited blood pressure wise) and to see that calamitous Sol Campbell back pass and the resultant free kick and then all the Wenger moaning, it was just fantastic. Yes I know I am a sick old Spurs fan but it was funny, they have the right to take a free kick as quick as they like and the fact that the Arsenal defenders were walking back is their fault. For Wenger to say, you can take it quick but not in the penalty box showed him to be the man he is. I do remember Fabregas taking a quick free kick years ago and not hearing Arsene Whinger say that was wrong. If you haven’t seen it is, it is well worth a watch in the replays or highlights. That and the Bayern goal made my night, as they say it is a funny old game.

Played golf yesterday and have woken up with a serious pain in the hip, have not played for ages so obviously I have developed a new move in my swing, that does not agree with my body. As a result will not be doing much today, it really is painful. I will be catching up on the rest of the results and posting on here over the next couple of days. I will be updating the mentor and elite pages in the next day or so and send those involved notification when done.

New casino system about to be launched, if you have not got my guide to buying gambling systems from the post above grab it now, it explains exactly how these casino cons work. A lot of info coming up over the next couple of weeks so do check the blog daily.

No football today, just lots of hype about Beckham playing Man Utd again. The latest system launched today and more email from South Africa etc, having had a window cleaner and bricklayer this time it is an ex grocery store assistant suddenly making thousands the webpage has started immediate alarm bells if you look at the claimed profit through all the test screenshots you will note that in the profit figures claimed they are also including the stake money i.e Test Day 1 stake £2500 to win £2925 and a total return of £5425 but they claim the profit as £5425, anyone who knows anything about betting knows this is an absolute rookie error so I fear once again  it is more doctored screenshots and another huge scam by people who know nothing about betting so keep the money in your pocket. I like the fact they say this package cannot be found anywhere yet I have 6 promotional emails from the usual sources already