Fair or Unfair BOG

ian FTS Blog

A nice win on Sunday for the Spurs to complete a decent week. A tough run of games coming up with United away, Real Madrid, Arsenal and Dortmund all over the next few weeks. City won again, and I mentioned on Twitter I have layed them at 1.22/23 for a fair chunk. It is (in my opinion way too short). Already after Spurs win they drifted out a few ticks. I have no doubts that City will hit a sticky patch. They have Arsenal to come soon and then a tougher December. They went off like a rocket last season and finished tailed off I cannot be a backer of any team at 1.22 with 75% of the season to go so I expect a trade, if I am wrong it was very low risk effort.

Liverpool’s woes continue, and I thought Klopp would do better. To watch that defence and goalkeeper up close and personal is laughable. I have never rated Mignolet and Lovren is not a top-class defender. The rest of the defence I think have no confidence in the keeper so are always second guessing themselves. Is he coming, isn’t he coming? The OPTA stats back it up. In his time at Liverpool Mignolet has made more mistakes than any other keeper leading to goals. When you think teams like Villa and Sunderland have been through that period it highlights how shocking he is.

The fact Klopp has not addressed it is astounding really and I think he must shoulder the blame. Title winning sides are solid at the back first. The Arsenal title winning teams, Chelsea, United with Vidic and Ferdinand. You cannot free score your way to the title and not defend it is what caught City out last year. Liverpool have some great forward players, Mane, Coutinho, Salah but you cannot win football matches and titles with that back line.
I mentioned a few blogs back that an FTS member was conducting his own rampage against the scammers. We have become pen pals over the last few weeks as he shares emails he has received and stories of the latest marketing techniques. At this time, I am not going to name him as I know these people would then target him but exposing this behavior is a priority for him and I think it is good for FTS also
One such exchange led to the inclusion of BOG terms (Best Odds Guaranteed – if you back a horse at an early price and the SP returns bigger you get the bigger price) in tipster profit and loss statements. His emails then led to me asking the question of whether as punters you felt a tipster should use BOG for profit and loss figures.

If we look at what BOG actually is it is simply a bookmaker marketing tool and nothing more. Bet with us and we will give you the best odds guaranteed because we are lovely and kind and generous. However, if you hover over the green check mark on Oddschecker where it indicates the Best Odds Guaranteed is available at that bookie you will see that every bookie states “BOG can be withdrawn from accounts at (name of bookmaker) discretion.
As such now most bookmakers offer BOG, BUT as soon as you win you will find it is one of the first if not the first restriction placed on your account. I am firmly in the no camp when it comes to tipsters including BOG. I am not overly keen on them doing profit to prices advised as if the tipster is any good those prices are impossible to get. I like tipsters who would post to a widely available price.

BOG to me is a bonus that if you’re lucky enough to be able to take it and you are on a horse that drifts it is a little “Brucie Bonus” in the back pocket. When I bet in the shops 10-12 years ago for JG he would quote a price and occasionally we got a winning drifter. I always declared if I was on at BOG, but JG would never put it in his figures it was a bonus that we often split 50/50 or put in a holiday fund. The true returns were to the price he requested.
When we look at it in tipster terms this tipster I know has a huge list and is a serial marketer.

By all accounts he has had a horrendous run. His football service has not won in over 12 months and his racing service was launched with a huge fanfare, large price tag and of course tanked. The horse he tipped up was 6/1 which our FTS man was on at and went on to win at 14/1. After a poor run a 6/1 winner was welcome but nowhere near covering the losses so he was stunned when the next day the tipster claimed and waxed lyrical about the 14/1 winner.

He wrote to the tipster saying he thought it was unfair and that it was not right to claim the BOG terms as he could not take BOG and unlikely that many of this guy’s hundreds of subscribers (and it will be hundreds as it was full on marketing and still is now, the sort of firm who email after every winner) would have got on at BOG terms. He stated that if his results were to BOG then they were not a true reflection as if the tipster is claiming all BOG and the 14/1 price and he is getting 6/1 he has no chance of winning which is true.
The tipster replied that our man was wrong and that everyone was on at BOG he was the exception and he had lots of emails congratulating him on the 14/1 winner.
Our man wrote back again saying he did not agree and highlighting that punters on winning tipsters would not get BOG for very long.

Once again, he was dismissed. The intrigue for me was the news that “lots of punters” had emailed in congratulations. FTS runs Will Lattimore’s service and we don’t get a load of emails and never have done when Will gets a winner so why would this tipsters clientele be so different.
I decided to ask the question on Twitter of punters should BOG be included as an accurate reflection of a tipster’s results. Across Twitter and email I have had 96 replies. 95 agree with me and say no. 1 person was a yes, we will get to him in a moment.

The overwhelming response is it is not fair. So, I beggar the question how did the provider possibly have a clientele that is claiming they are over the moon results are to BOG.

It is about fairness. I understand a tipster wants to present himself in a good light but if your honest and decent then that objective is achieved. The fact he wants to claim BOG tells me instantly he is unfair and not right. I have had these conversations with Will – quote a price people and I mean the majority can get. If they get enhanced terms or prices that is their bonus not the tipsters.

The minute you start marketing it as 14/1 winner and this guy has mailed every day this week doing so then I must lose all regard for it.

The starting point has surely to be fairness to your customers. We have made a load of mistakes in 10 years but always been fair in my opinion.

The guy then launches a service tipping up 1.09 shots and I just put my head in my hands and that is a conversation for another day encompassing Twitter tipsters and more generic garbage.
Just returning to the one person in favour of tipsters recording BOG it was from my good mate Paul, known as @suggsy62 on twitter. I met Paul through FTS and became friends. I am meeting him in a couple of hours as I treat him to watch Bilic last game in charge of West Ham. A chorus of West ham fans are praying for me to eat my words like the scousers were on Sunday! (I never got a text Ken Moore?)

Unfortunately, Paul only has one fault and that is he is always wrong and 95 to 1 Paul on this issue proves it again. Paul, like Kav manages a football team and I don’t know what happens to them it seems to delude the old grey matter and they make ridiculous statements. I will put Paul right later.

Enjoy your week and I will be back at the weekend.

P.S. Southgate omits Messi from his picks of the top 3 players in the world, that sentence says it all!