[am4show have=’p4;p5;’ guest_error=’FTS Only Noir Member’ user_error=’FTS Only Noir Member’ ]I have gone through all 40 weeks of the odds sheets that were produced last season and looked at many areas of placing consistent bets across the season within certain criteria to see where areas of profit lay. The fixed odds bets I cherry picked this last season did not work out and that is my fault down to cherry picking which has stood me on good stead but I do apologise as it is not a sound method going forward.
The 2012/2013 season was the first time I have mass produced my odds using them previously as my own working tool and mostly I worked the old fashioned way of pen and paper (as those who know me will verify to my tech skills) and innumerable hieroglyphics and scribblings. The discipline of recording the odds in the new way on a spreadsheet is a natural progression and has led to me updating my whole OLD database to allow me to benefit from new findings and methods.
The one thing that remains constant is that if you bet with the value and only bet with the value then you will win over time. if you bet with no regard to price then you will not. Many of us struggle to make horse racing pay for example as tips come in and we are forced if wanting to have a bet to take a lower price than quoted and over a period of time this is not sustainable.
Back to the odds sheets. Having identified areas I then went back through previous seasons going back as far as I felt reasonable which was 2008/2009 season to see if the areas I highlighted followed a profitable trend over repeated seasons. They did!
That tells me that the way I go about compiling my own odds is correct and I shall not change that process for the coming season. I believe my method to be rock solid and because of the way i do it I can start from week one with no worries on what players teams buy etc to compile my odds. Of course on any particular match day the personnel on the pitch and teams playing a weakened side for example will have an effect but the principle itself is sound.
Next season as part of the new FTS set up I will be using the odds sheets and betting every match that has qualifying criteria for one of the methods mentioned below. This will mean more bets and will mean I encounter losing streaks but I am certain, in fact I KNOW this will produce certain points profit over a season.
Of course it is down to the individual to decide what points profit deems worthwhile over a season and i revert to my constant preaching of a portfolio of bets over the season that will all add up to a decent level of profit to make the whole method worthwhile.
Fixed odds betting particularly on Betfair is very difficult to come out on top over a season as the markets are so efficient and I know of very few services who do make a profit. Even services that in previous years have not adapted and now where they won have most because they refuse to accept that the value is no longer there.
Again it all comes down to mindset, how you bet and what your expectations are. I will be covering this at the seminars in the summer.
It may be that you found your own methods with the odds sheets or it may be that it is not for you and you do not take them going forward next season. I firmly believe having completed my first season with them that they are a hugely valuable asset and the time involved is worth it.
The summary below will be where I focus week in week out and I expect a similar if not better profit level as using this criteria every season has shown great profits and a couple of the seasons were phenomenal.
The latter part of the season saw me send the completed sheet for the weekend out on a Friday for the whole weekend and this will be the modus operandi for the 2013/2014 season as it certainly helps to see how markets move between Friday and kick off times.
One area that I will also focus is on trading certain criteria for smaller marker movements particularly on over priced teams (strong blue positives on the odds sheet) as this has added roughly 40 more points across the season. This will form part of the Noir service next season with those games identified on the Friday evening where a back is placed immediately and a trade is placed after 15-20 minutes of kickoff for regular fairly risk free profits with only 1 point ever being at risk and the trading ability being able to allow a stop loss.
It is the same old adage hard work, analysis and discipline usually pays and I expect great things for 2013/2014 going forward across the season.
Lets get down to some figures.
French League
I am going to start with the French league as this is the most simple. We had many FTS trades in France particularly late on in the season and nearly all of them successful. Games involving PSG, Montpelier, Lille etc all seem to provide great LTD trades against certain levels of opposition.
However as a league for betting fixed odds I shall be discounting it completely. I have found no profitable angles at all using criteria that works across every other major league in Europe. The matches are the weakest markets on Betfair, the draw prices in 70% of games are underpriced and despite David Beckham the interest is just not the same for the French game. Now with a couple of big spending clubs getting involved it may change so I will record this seasons data and go from there in 2014/2015
I SHALL NO LONGER PRODUCE AN ODDS SHEET FOR LIGUE 1 UNLESS THERE IS OVERWHELMING DEMAND FOR ONE.
Germany – Bundesliga
Early last season I mentioned that taking on odds on shots in Germany was profitable. It is relative risk free method with limited liability on your bets. I had it in my head that leaving teams like Bayern out of this equation would be beneficial to increasing profit. In fact taking an opinion once again proves detrimental. I also had it in my head that applying this to away odds on favourites may work- it doesn’t
LAYING ALL ODDS ON HOME TEAMS IN BUNDESLIGA THAT HAVE A NEGATIVE VALUE (red figure with minus symbol on your odds sheets) – ODDS RANGE 1.01 – 1.99
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +11.01 Points
2008/2009 +17.63 Points
2009/2010 +14.82 Points
2010/2011 +9.64 Points
2011/2012 + 37.48 Points
The key is teams that have a negative value which shows that my odds calculations come out on top, laying all teams that are odds on irrespective of value shows a loss over 5 season of around 10 points which represents a swing of almost 100 points, a great advert for identifying false prices if ever I needed one.
Laying away odds on teams showed a slight loss even applying the negative expectancy filter and has done repeatedly so will be discarded.
LAYING HOME TEAMS 2.0 – 2.49 NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY GREATER THAN 3%
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +10.18 Points
2008/2009 +12.28 Points
2009/2010 +10.47 Points
2010/2011 +6.43 Points
2011/2012 + 21.24 Points
BACKING ALL DRAWS IN THE BUNDESLIGA WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY. (Blue figure on your odds sheets)
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +7.78 Points
2008/2009 +12.40 Points
2009/2010 +5.34 Points
2010/2011 +8.21 Points
2011/2012 + 10.36 Points
Backing the draw is an unfashionable bet and is an area I quite like in certain games as it does offer value when others want to lay the draw. I did try and cherry pick some of these games last season with mixed results.
Filtering those that showed a higher positive value did not make a difference to results, i.e over 5% value bought profit down to 4.68 points.
BACKING AWAY TEAMS WITH DOUBLE DIGIT ODDS WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +16.00 Points
2008/2009 +22.34 Points
2009/2010 +15.64 Points
2010/2011 +19.92 Points
2011/2012 + 8.71 Points
This is an area I always believe to be profitable as we know the higher the price in the bookmaker the bigger the value we will get on Betfair as the mindset of most is that these teams have no chance. Of course every season in every league we have surprise results.
The only concern with this strategy is that your profit is based on just a few bets coming in so you do have long losing runs but when a winner comes it is always value and a good pay day. Taking a long term picture and considering the value angle I have to go with this next season.
That will complete my Bundesliga Fixed Odds Portfolio
1 LAYING ALL ODDS ON HOME TEAMS IN BUNDESLIGA THAT HAVE A NEGATIVE VALUE (red figure with minus symbol on your odds sheets) – ODDS RANGE 1.01 – 1.99
2. LAYING HOME TEAMS 2.0 – 2.49 NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY GREATER THAN 3%
3 BACKING ALL DRAWS IN THE BUNDESLIGA WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY. (Blue figure on your odds sheets)
4. BACKING AWAY TEAMS WITH DOUBLE DIGIT ODDS WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY
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2012/2013 TOTAL PROFIT +44.97 Points After Comm
Five Season Profit – +277.88 Points After Comm (Average 55.58 Points per season for above 4 strategies)
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England – Premiership
As I am nice I will quickly mention a couple of methods that you can use next season for a reasonable profit in the Premiership even if you decide the odds sheets and FTS membership next season are not for you.
LAYING LIVERPOOL EVERY GAME 2012/2013 +9 Points
5 Season Profit – +47.56
You know my views, I harp on about it almost weekly but with good reason. Liverpool are the most wrongly priced team in world football and I really cannot see things changing for a fair few seasons with the way football is worldwide – the rich get better, the rest struggle to keep up. I shall continue to Lay Liverpool until things look like changing purely based on price.
LAYING THE CHRISTMAS BOTTOM THREE AT HOME EVERY GAME FROM JAN 1st. 2012/2013 +21 Points
5 Season Profit +94.36
It is well known and reported that the Xmas bottom 3 will struggle to avoid relegation. Simply they are down there for a reason and once down there the momentum to get points is hard to come by. Home games are seen as where points must be won and the view is often that because they need to win people back them. As a result a lot of false prices, you may recall that QPR this season offered poor value on the odds sheet week in week out. Basically they are poor sides at the wrong price and it pays to take them on at Home.
I stated in the season that the Premiership has the most efficient prices on Betfair and so it has proved and defeating the fixed odds backing or laying has proved very difficult even when you think you identify value the result still needs to go your way.
BACKING ALL DRAWS IN THE PREMIERSHIP WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY. (Blue figure on your odds sheets)
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +8.86 Points
2008/2009 +11.78 Points
2009/2010 +14.35 Points
2010/2011 +7.25 Points
2011/2012 + 11.22 Points
Again I cherry picked these last season and now show go all in and back them all. There is some great value particularly in the bottom half of the table late season and rather than pick and choose I will eliminate the opinion factor
BACKING MAN UTD, MAN CITY AND CHELSEA AT HOME WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY BUT NOT AGAINST EACH OTHER, ARSENAL OR SPURS.
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +11.47 Points
2008/2009 +10.23 Points
2009/2010 +9.43 Points
2010/2011 +15.77 Points
2011/2012 + 13.61 Points
Most people put these teams in accumulators and often get let down by just one match. Backing singles where they are value is nice and consistent and fairly risk averse and will be my play going forward. It is a new mode for me as I will be backing shorter prices than I usually do but the key is it has to be a value price.
That will complete my Premiership Fixed Odds Portfolio
1. LAYING LIVERPOOL EVERY GAME
2. LAYING THE CHRISTMAS BOTTOM THREE AT HOME EVERY GAME FROM JAN 1st.
3. BACKING ALL DRAWS IN THE PREMIERSHIP WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY. (Blue figure on your odds sheets)
4. BACKING MAN UTD, MAN CITY AND CHELSEA AT HOME WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY BUT NOT AGAINST EACH OTHER, ARSENAL OR SPURS.
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2012/2013 Profit +50.33 Points
Five Season Profit +255.89 Points (Average 51.18)
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Italy – Serie A
LAYING ALL ODDS ON HOME TEAMS IN SERIE A THAT HAVE A NEGATIVE VALUE OVER 5% (red figure with minus symbol on your odds sheets) – ODDS RANGE 1.01 – 1.99
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +10.01 Points
I mentioned this strategy back in the early part of the season and I love it never lost since I have been compiling odds
2008/2009 +14.44 Points
2009/2010 +9.88 Points
2010/2011 +13.38 Points
2011/2012 + 10.29 Points
BACKING AWAY TEAMS IN SERIE A WITH DOUBLE DIGIT ODDS
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +18.94 Points
2008/2009 +22.82 Points
2009/2010 +19.57 Points
2010/2011 +28.72 Points
2011/2012 + 19.02 Points
Steady Profits but again longish losing runs to handle.
BACKING JUVENTUS, NAPOLI and AC MILAN AT HOME WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY BUT NOT AGAINST EACH OTHER
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +10.09 Points
2008/2009 +6.31 Points
2009/2010 +9.88 Points
2010/2011 +12.43 Points
2011/2012 + 11.89 Points
That will complete my Serie A Fixed Odds Portfolio
1. LAYING ALL ODDS ON HOME TEAMS IN SERIE A THAT HAVE A NEGATIVE VALUE OVER 5% (red figure with minus symbol on your odds sheets) – ODDS RANGE 1.01 – 1.99
2. BACKING AWAY TEAMS IN SERIE A WITH DOUBLE DIGIT ODDS
BACKING JUVENTUS, NAPOLI and AC MILAN AT HOME WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCY BUT NOT AGAINST EACH OTHER
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2012/2013 Profit +39.04
Five Season Profit +220.67 (Average 44.13)
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Spain – La Liga
BACKING HOME TEAMS DOUBLE DIGIT ODDS FROM -3% Negativity to Any Positive
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +20.96 Points
2008/2009 +37.64 Points
2009/2010 +18.34 Points
2010/2011 +20.42 Points
2011/2012 +33.27 Points
Not many bets and losing runs but again regular winners show steady growth including small negatives gives it a boost and it may be that my odds for this league on the big prices underestimate the value. Distortion may be down to the fact that two teams dominate the league for so long.
LAYING HOME TEAMS WITH NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY EXCLUDING BARCELONA, REAL MADRID AND ATLETICO MADRID ODDS RANGE 1.20- 2.49
TOTAL PROFIT AFTER COMM 2012/2013 +17.24 Points
2008/2009 +22.33 Points
2009/2010 +27.41 Points
2010/2011 +13.14 Points
2011/2012 +17.62 Points
Another good league for taking on home teams. It may be after a further analysis at Christmas that R madrid or A madrid are added back into the fold, A Madrid had a particularly good home record last season and R Madrid had a wobble which distorts figures and it remains to be seen the Falcao factor if he leaves and the Ancelotti factor should he join. At the moment I will go with the blind figures
That will complete my La Liga Fixed Odds Portfolio
1. BACKING HOME TEAMS DOUBLE DIGIT ODDS FROM -3% Negativity to Any Positive
2. LAYING HOME TEAMS WITH NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY EXCLUDING BARCELONA, REAL MADRID AND ATLETICO MADRID ODDS RANGE 1.20- 2.49
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2012/2013 Profit +38.20
Five Season Profit +228.37 (Average 45.67)
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SUMMARY AND MOVING FORWARD
All in all the above before we add anything else like the FTS bets etc shows a profit around 180 points a season on average and I have loads to add for new members next season.
The above will form part of the VIP and Noir service next season for all 4 leagues and 2 leagues for the Sapphire service. There is no Gold service next season.
Those who take up the paid FTS memberships next season will receive the above in a pdf format in your own personal members download page, (each member will have his own page). Selections will then be generated for you each week and results added week so all you will have to do is place the bets.
FTS Lay The Draw Bets will continue with the trading advice. We will have Laying In-Play, CSI Version 2.0.
15 Minute system bets and System 3 bets will cease as I have moved on from these myself, you have the manuals for your own workings if you wish.
I have a fair few new methods (new to members that is) that will be dispersed to VIP members other paid FTS memberships depending on the level people are on and these will be disclosed nearer the start of the season including DNB, Asian handicaps, Correct Scores and Laying certain other odds on teams other than those above based on weekly information calculated from my database as it updates each week. There will also be a HT/FT service which again will form part of VIP and Noir and shows great value hunting and profit.
Seminar attendees will also get a very profitable method given to them on the day
As the the database grows the profitability will grow with it, it is all about staying ahead of the curve and putting the work in rather than any personal view I have, even the Liverpool bets are born by numbers rather than what I may think of the team or manager.
All in all the futures bright, the futures FTS. I will be honest we have made some major cock ups in the past and part of that is trying to keep too many people happy. All memberships next season will be trimmed down in numbers and the focus on education, results and profit.
I hope you find the above useful, the new site is not far away, the seminars are getting booked up.
Membership for next year including my 1-to-1 service will open shortly for next season and all in we will blow everyone else and all their BS away of that I am more than certain and my P/L over the years shows it. It is about dispersing that and helping the few who want to learn and I make no apologies for saying it is just a few, most just want the instant riches or a winning day. The biggest thing I have learned in all honesty over the years is that I cannot please or help everyone and where I have tried to it has affected everything else. Rather than fight with that I am ditching it and running things in a way they work best for me and for those who want to be part of it, with that mindset I can deliver what I need to and be there for people who really want to do this and live the life I live. As Meerkat would say Seemples!
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One Response
Thank you for laying out the odds sheet perspective.
It has left me excited about the coming season.
Comitted to discipline. Will pin the PDF’s om my Study
Wall and read read read
Once again, Ian , Your hard work leaves me breathless.
B