On Friday 1st November about 10.30 pm I took a phone call from one of my mates asking me what my view was on the weekend football and in particular the Newcastle v Chelsea game. Usual football banter followed and I stated I could not see Newcastle getting anything and a draw was probably the best they could hope for. He then asked me what my bets were for the day and I said have a few quid on Newcastle. I think he thought I was winding him up and he duly hung up. I had in fact advised VIP members to back Newcastle for 2 points at 6.2 on the Friday.
This weekend I advised VIP to back Sunderland at home to Man City for 1 point at 9.8 and Newcastle again, this time away to Spurs, for 1 point at 7.2. Now as I was typing it, I of course have doubts as to what I am sending (Spurs not so much, awkward watching a game wanting both to win at times, one for love of the team the other for financial gain), and I am sure that those who received it think I must be slightly mental.
The point of all this is my opinion was that none of the bets were likely to win, but fortunately I don’t bet with my opinion my spreadsheets and workings said that the 3 bets qualified for the VIP portfolio and as a result over 20 points profit is banked from those 3 bets.
Not every bet wins of course and that is very important to note, the sole fact is I had a personal view on the games but I do not bet according to that personal view and it is that alone that allows me to profit over time. My mate on the phone he didn’t follow my advice he backed Chelsea as he could not see anything other than Chelsea winning. Value will always beat opinion.
It is an exciting year in the Premiership with the recent Man Utd – Arsenal result bringing the top segment all close together. There is plenty of football to be played and MY OPINION is the top 4 may well be the same as last year. I do hope Liverpool continue their run as I can then get involved and lay them lower for some more – Happy Days!!
Now back to FTS. This year has been one of massive change on every level. At times I have wanted to jack it all in as every improvement be it website, emails, forum, memberships has come with problem after problem and it has felt like an impossibility to make progress and run things as I would like to run them. Last week saw the transfer of the site to a new server which I am told will now serve all our needs and in particular visitor needs better. Of course straight after the transfer the site went down and then when people logged in they appeared on the site as someone else. I myself was signed in as two completely different people. My frustration is I cannot solve these issues myself as my tech knowledge is limited. I am told now that all is ok and we can move on into the future unimpeded by any further problems.
This means that I can finally resume blog posts with readers of these not crashing the site and I can rant and rant to ease my ever increasing blood pressure.
So what is their to rant about!! Loads of course
System sellers still continue to promote a load of crap
Gamblers still look to win a million in a week and remain clueless on value and that losses do occur
That about sums it all up and that will be the essence of the next couple of weeks.
What do we have that is good to talk about?
Education – The summer seminars (interesting how everyone is doing a seminar these days – can they just talk a good game or call up some profits to show you that would change your life?) were a success and I think all parties enjoyed them and learned from them – whether people act on that of course is another question altogether. Education is the way forward and we have the System Builder seminar this weekend and I know those attending will leave knowing how to carve out some solid profits over the coming years using the methods and concepts we discuss on Saturday. If attending I look forward to seeing you.
We will be adding a lot more content once the seminar this weekend is out of the way and I can have a bit of time at home over the next couple of months and get all the things we want started and on site.
We plan a couple of webinars to show you some new bits and pieces. Some unbelievable football software will be on site any time now and that will change the betting and research of anyone serious about profiting from football.
New videos, spreadsheets, GA newsletters it all will be on asap.
On the downside we have lost the Racing Advisory service and Football Advisory service and the site will be changed soon to reflect this. We lost them owing to lack of support. I am past worrying about such things. It was interesting I was with an FTS member last week and he showed me over £1000 profit from very infrequent use of the race card on his spreadsheet and several emails received from people winning with the football which had some nice touches. At the end of the day I will use them privately, visitors vote in effect for what they want and whilst we will turn to education if at the end of the day people give things a week and then move to the next thing I have every faith that i can successfully brand them as a a LOSER!!
International break so not much football on the week. Been a tough start to the season in many areas, EPL draws are 6% down on last year and about 4% down on the 10 year mean the slack being absorbed by away wins with home wins pretty much on the mean number and this variance is reflected elsewhere in numerous leagues. I would expect by the end of the season the differentials to reduce and we will see the variance get back to something like the mean averages
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One Response
Ian,
Thanks for the post –
I’d like to hear your thoughts and or actions on selections of football and racing when you have conflicting data.
As an example:- a advised lay on a horse from the Racing Advisory conflicts with a back on the SB or ratings – do you go with the lay or look for the higher payout on a back, or a combination of both? I don’t have an opinion on horses other than the grey ones look nicer than the brown 🙂
Is it wrong to form an ‘opinion’ from the available stats on inplay markets? I try to look at in play games that predict a[nother] goal and look at odds accordingly and use an analogy that Form and Value should equal a Profit. I’d be interested to hear you thoughts on this.
I think I already know what you are going to say but ……..
Dori