The league of so called leagues gets underway on Saturday as the overpaid, over hyped Premier League returns.
With the transfer window closing after the start of the season and gazillion millions being spent, I don’t like to get too carried away betting ante post in this league these days. Spurs and Liverpool, your standard low risk Top 4 lays, is where I will kick things off. At 2.46 and 2.54 I have to lay both of these. Spurs fell into the Top 4 last season by default of other teams being garbage. Less points than they achieved under Villas Boas in a season where they apparently played great football, and other teams were not so good surely should have seen more points.
Pochettino teams historically, and by that I mean every single season, where he has been a manager, no matter what club, finish the season badly and last season was no different. Spurs failed to beat Arsenal, Chelsea, United and Liverpool, only recording wins against Man City of the top sides. As of yet, just a couple of mediocre additions to the squad (Southampton’s record without Wanyama was better than their record when he did play) and the added distraction of Champions League football, 6000 seats missing from the stadium, it is the easiest 2.46 lay of my life.
Liverpool – well it is Liverpool! 9610 is a number those who attended the seminars in 2015 will identify with. I am sure they will improve but I cannot see that improvement carrying them into the top 4 with the opposition around. It may be that player’s positions are not cemented – where will Wijnaldum play? Who will play up front? Mignolet for me is not a top class keeper and well, it is Liverpool. So at 2.56 not for me.
As much as it pains me I do believe IF, and it is a big IF, Arsene opens his wallet up then Arsenal will have a great chance this season. United will take time to gel, Chelsea surely will be better than last season, Pep needs to get City playing his way so it is wide open, and Arsenal are the only “settled” team of the real contenders but need a bit more quality, up front and at centre back. If they buy they will be right in there, and at 6/1 look value.
I will re-iterate that in my opinion last season was a freak season. It seems some think otherwise and they are entitled to that opinion. If Leicester or West Ham win the league this season I will truly go and get a new job. My view is that we will see a return to the same old top 4 this season, but it really could be in any order. If City gel quickly and Aguero plays for the whole season, surely they will win it. Conte could easily get the champions of 2 seasons ago firing again, and if Hazard, Fabregas et al find form they have to be there. Jose is Jose and eventually United will buy it surely, it just remains to be seen if it is this season. Even with Leicester only 5 teams have ever won the league, it not a free for all for sure.
I cannot have a back bet at the top of the table for that reason but to get something down on paper, I will go with Conte and no European football to have the edge, whilst they seem a fair price compared to City and United there are question marks that put me off a bet, last season was woeful and the central defence has questions for me, never been a huge Cahill fan, Zouma a definite squiggle next to him and Terry is getting past his best. We then dont know if Costa is staying, is Lukaku is coming in? It could all fall into shape for them though come Sept 1st
1. Chelsea, 2. City, 3. Arsenal, 4. United. I would love it, just love it, as Kevin would say, if United missed out. Spurs, Liverpool and perhaps a resurgent Everton will then be propping them up with West Ham, Leicester etc just in behind. If you’re bold, Leicester at 7.0 for the Top 4 and 38.0 to win it still look great value lays on my book.
At the bottom I cannot see Hull staying up, but 8/13 does not appeal. I think Watford will stay up and I would have layed them for relegation around 3.3 if money was around. Two from Boro, Sunderland and Swansea I think will fill the remaining places. Not sure Moyes will recreate what he did at Everton, and Sunderland have flirted there long enough and like Wigan, eventually you go. Boro could be anything and Swansea are losing key players. Williams yesterday to Everton was a huge loss.
So, from a punting angle, I think the bookies have it all pretty much square. But I do have a sneaky relegation tickle, at only 16.5 on Betfair but 20.0 with most bookmakers, I think Southampton could struggle this season.
Koeman gone who I rated highly (still cannot forgive him for the foul against England which should have been a red and wasn’t and then he went up the other end and scored a free kick against England to prevent us going to USA 94 – but I am not bitter) and replaced with a French manager with no Premier League experience, you quote me Wenger and Houllier, I will quote you Garde, Santini and Perrin. Big players lost yet again, especially Mane, and if they get off to a poor start they could struggle to get going again so at 20/1 I think this could trade lower as we move through the season.
The Top Scorer market is always fun to have a dabble in. I can’t have Aguero at 7/2 purely on his injury rate. Kane at 6/1 too short, this may be the season he is found out (I hope not!!), so a couple of big dabbles.
Batshuayi at 20/1 for Chelsea and whilst they won’t get top 4 someone has to score their goals so Mane at 50/1 I am having a small tickle on, if we get to Aug 31st in the status quo.
I add that caveat as it may pay to wait to see if Arsenal sign anyone. if they do and they go in the market at double figures then I would ditch Mane and back whoever that is Lacazette or a similar player.
So not a great deal of betting advice as I don’t think anyone is huge value except for the Top 4 lays, less than 6/4 Spurs and 6/4 Liverpool is gold.
Spurs 3 point Lay Top 4 at 2.46
Liverpool 3 point Lay Top 4 at 2.54
Southampton 1 Point Relegation at 20/1
Aug 31st – Batshuayi 1 Pt Topscorer 20/1 and either Mane 1 Point at 50/1 or Arsenal’s record signing striker if double figures 1 point Mr X
PLEASE NOTE that these are just personal bets and not official FTS bets. They are just advice and not guaranteed to win so if you bet them you do so by your own decision and at your own peril. Remember money is tied up for the season.
5 Responses
As a Southampton supporter am the eternal optimist so have to say you have got this wrong.
As the song goes – we will survive ! Do agree with your comments on Spurs – overrated !!!
Have had a go on Chelsea but not over confident.
Lets hope its a good season punting wise
Cheers
If LEICESTER was a PREVIOUS WINNING HORSE Ian you would BACK IT! They are after all the League LAST TIME OUT WINNERS. Here’s my picks for this season and many you had yourself are very similar.
Good morning guys I did promise you all my ANTI-POST Possible League Winner bets this year so here we go 🙂
Premier League
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CHELSEA to possibly bounce back to winning ways at a very good 7.20 under an excellent manager in Conte. They have the squad and team spirit and should be well restored for this season. Big player side for me.
LEICESTER at 36.00 simply to TRADE they did very well with few injuries last year and should get another good start and all this talk of getting conjested this year with being in Europe? Well if they fail to stay IN very long they could well make another Title bid and you just cannot ignore at the price!
TOTTENHAM @ 10.50 No reason why The Lillywhites cannot have another good season and another side that should TRADE well at the very least. Expecting 3rd or 4th place once again.
Man City are far too short for me at just 3.65 if ICELAND can knock TWO goals past Joe Hart I woudn’t have very much confidence with that bet and that skinny price! Man United could easily grab 2nd Place this year but not much meat on the bone at just 4.50 while Arsenal and Liverpool are simply just not strong enough once again to make a serious challenge for me. Two ‘Dark Horses’ that could TRADE decently enough for me are WEST HAM at 100-1 and SOUTHAMPTON at a very big 230-1
TOP GOALSCORER 2016/2017
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HARRY KANE @ 8.80 Last year’s Top Scorer knocked in a whopping 25 goals and scored with a very high 60 percent of shots on target. Much better value then the injury-prone Sergio Aguero at just 5.40 for me folks.
ROMELU LUKAKU @ 15.00 Everton’s Main Man scored an extremely high 18 goals last season and with Everton under new management and now looking a bit stronger this season he could knock in a fair few more. Plus CHELSEA are looking to take him back to Stamford Bridge once again (Where they will probably loan him out again lol)
JAMIE VARDY @ 21.00 Second last season with a whopping 57 percent of on target shots hitting the back of the onion net. Very big price and especially so if Leicester leave Europe EARLY.
WAYNE ROONEY @ 50.00,8.20 (Top FOUR) Last but not League Jose Mourinho has ALWAYS WANTED to manage Man United’s Talisman and despite only scoring a measley eight goals last season Wayne will be played in his PROPER position as a Striker under Jose and I simply cannot IGNORE at this price. For me it’s CERTAIN to at least TRADE and he might not be far away from finishing in the top FOUR this season as well. Could easily double-up this season and score 15 to 20 goals for me as long as he keeps himself fit.
THE CHAMPIONSHIP
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I simply cannot take Newcastle at skinny odds of just 3.35 for this League and I actually took a much more MEATIER price of 8.80 for these guys who are STILL very good VALUE.
NORWICH CITY @ 5.50 The ultimate YO-YO CLUB who scrapped magnificently last season only losing out by single goals to much better quality sides. Both there manager and side are very well prepared for this League and I truly expect them to be there or thereabouts once again. There 1-4 recent Away win against Blackburn (Who could be going down this season.) has already showed there statement of intent.
BRIGHTON @ 13.00/14.00 The Sea-siders have been knocking on the door the last few seasons and scored an impressive 89 points last year SIX clear of promoted Hull City only going out in the Play-Off’s I’m expecting big things from them once again. They have plenty of GOALS in them and look the next best VALUE for me in this League.
Next best for me are Derby County and Sheffield Wednesday but seeing as these sides were eleven and fifteen points adrift of Brighton last season but more or less the SAME PRICE my next team below represents very good potential TRADING VALUE.
CARDIFF CITY @ 60.00 8th Place last season on a very respectable 68 Points the Welsh bhoys were a Premier League side as recently as 2014 and at this price should TRADE at the very least. Expecting a Play-Off position from this side at the very least.
I did fancy Aston Villa for back-to-back Relegation’s this season but unless you can get a price of 12 to 18 please don’t bother. New signing Ross McCormick from Fulham should knock some goals in for them but still the Villains were the SOFTEST Premier League side for many seasons last year and I think they will struggle to make the top half of the table this season in what is a very TOUGH League to come back out from. I do feel that there are at least FIVE/SIX sides POORER in this League then BURTON however and this side is a LAY TO BE RELEGATED for me at just a price of 3.00 or lower.
LEAGUE ONE
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I will take BOLTON to bounce-back at 12.00 and next best for me here CHARLTON ATHLETIC at a very good 14.00 and COVENTRY CITY could trade well here at a massive 30.00 plus.
LEAGUE TWO
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Could be fairly-recent Prem side BLACKPOOL’S year and although only priced at 20.00 now I grabbed an earlier 32.00 for the Tower Boys. PLYMOUTH @ 19.00 and WYCOMBE are a very big price at 28.00 as well and should be there or thereabouts and are next best for me. Yes I do like Portsmouth here but not amazing value at just 5.50 in this League. One very good ‘Fav type’ here LUTON TOWN could also TOP this League at fairly good odds of 8.00
And there you have it! I’m interested if you AGREE with anything written above and do remember that these are LONG TERM BETS your money will be tied up for nine months 🙂 The best of luck if getting involved and remember you could always CASH-OUT EARLY. NORWICH for example have almost DOBBED AFTER ONE GAME!!
Wot! Liverpool to miss out on Top 4? Dream on, me old mucker. This is our year! 😉
Hi Ian
Wenger is already making excuses but at least “we play with a good spirit” as he is prone to say ad nauseam. I’m prepared to write this season off to see the back of him.
I’m still bitter about Koeman and it pisses me off that none of the press pick him up on his antics in that game. Good manager though.
On an unconnected note, it was good to watch Bolt stick it to the two time cheating scumbag Gatlin yet again in Rio in the early hours. Well done the Rio crowd on booing him.
I backed Arse to win last year; but it would not surprise me if they were finished OUT of the Top 4 and it is au revoir Wenger…
and given Jose’s record, that ManU win it… (and given that Jose has sorted out a decent spine with Ibra, Pogba, Bailly and De Gea…) Chelsea though will go close; Conte being a good fit for the club