I spoke too soon and took a pasting yesterday and it just shows that any method where you have to choose the bets from a selection of possibles will doom most of us to failure as the law of sod takes over. To pick only the winning bets is quite frankly impossible and I omitted Curvy and Space Age which of course won and the ones I went with lost. A day that would have been so different had I gone the other way and I know many of you have experienced that sort of day with many services where you have to make a choice rather than having a set list of bets.
An interesting lesson in mindset again today yesterday after winning on Tuesday I had 18 emails by 11.30 asking when I was posting bets. Today after a pasting yesterday, ZERO emails. I am obviously confined to the dustbin and they have moved on to a different source for today. I don’t mind. EDIT One request on Twitter from my new best friend @RUSTYBLACKHEART
So into Day 4 having wiped out the profits a tough day ahead as many favourites fancied and that is not my game
2.30 Been good money for Illuminate in the ante post market and into 4’s for today so no value in that anymore. I have had loads of mentions so at the prices JERSEY BREEZE is one of small interest and FRENCH at a huge price features from a couple of sources.
JERSEY BREEZE £20 EW (1/4 Odds 3 Places) -£40
FRENCH 100/1 £15 EW -£30
3.05 I have had strong words for the top 2 in the market BALIOS and STRAVAGANTE so I am having a small play both of them win only.
BALIOS £48 Win 9/2 +£216
STRAVAGANTE £66 3/1 -£66
3.40 Hootenanny is being touted as if it cannot be beat. I am sure some of it is Moore loyalty money after the week he has had. Not for me surprise, surprise. I have had good word for 2 in this race so will back both in the hope Hoot turns out to be right nanny and I hit the forecast. I should man up and back them win only but as I have been so unlucky this week I will hope to nick a couple of places if something freak happens and one of them does not win.
ADAAY 10/1 £25 EW (1/4 odds, 4 places) -£50
TIGGY WIGGY 8/1 £25 EW -£50
4.20 I am taking on the favourite again. Everyone is raving about Found but they were for Ivawood and Pleasach also earlier on the week so not for me. Need to find the one to beat it though and I have, LUCIDA wins and SPERRY finishes second a nose. There you go that is a prediction.
LUCIDA £40 Win 4/1 -£40
SPERRY £20 EW 16/1 (1/4 Odds, 3 Places) -£40
5.00 Time for some prices and when of these wins I will join the “I told you so brigade”. I will be once again taking advantage of Mr Powers extra place offer and relieving him of some hard earned around 5.10PM
CONTINUUM £20 EW 33/1 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places with Paddy) -£40
LIBRAN £20 EW 22/1 (same terms) +£90
FAMOUS KID £20 EW 28/1 (same terms) -£40
5.35 By now I will be pushing wheelbarrows of cash around and the only thing left is to add the cherry on the cake. Favourite Aloft – Not a chance, get into the double figures man. (in case you have not worked it out every time you back Aloft at 3/1 and it loses you need 2 winners in the next 3 races to make profit, my way – I have loads of races I can blank)
FUTURE EMPIRE £20 EW 16/1 (1/4 odds,3 places) +£60
GREAT GLEN £25 EW 8/1 -£50
Follow at your peril, results will be updated Saturday.
Day Total -£80
Meeting -£171.87
6 Responses
3 down 2 to go and I’m still in.
If you go over the cliff we can hold hands.
If not buy you a beer in Birmingham
Hi Ian, so as you don’t feel alone after yesterday I’ll put mine up today(kiss of death}.
2.30 Our Joy
3.05 Stravagante
3.40 Tendu & Cyclogenisis
4.20 Sperry
5.00 Arab Dawn & Continuum
5.35 Tommy Docc.
Good Luck.
Enjoying backing horses again. Specially when the bigger prices win. I just knew when you said about Space Age it’d win so I backed it….Doing them to 10%. We’ll have a Big day today, good luck…
You’re correct of course Ian regarding lists etc but I did mention to check against OTHER sources! Lists are only useful if you can factor them into to either another Service or site’s of equally useful information.
14:30 Ascot – French Encore / Rogues Gallery / Log Out Island / Shanghai Glory
15:05 Ascot – Mustadeem / Designo / Cape Clear Island / Don Camilo
15:40 Ascot – Curvy / Pamona / Gretchen / Pamona / Pandora Trend Forecast here?
16:20 Ascot – Mizzou / Bathyrhon / Simenon / Tac De Boistron
17:00 Ascot – War Envoy / Bow And Arrow / Malaf / Sacrificial / Sahaafy
17:35 Ascot – King Bolete / Simple Verse / Yorkidding / Belgrade / Neymar a decent one to Trade both Markets.
FRENCH ENCORE Traded to 7.00 from 70.00, 1.30 from 7.00 Place
MUSTADEEM Placed third at 5.90
CURVY Won at 7.00 plus
WAR ENVOY Won at 21.00,5.50
KING BOLETE Got up for a Place at 2.50
Only ONE from the top of my list let me down Mate! These were all in order of preference. SACRIFICIAL Traded very well and got up for a Place as well at a very nice 7.50
All the best, Mark.
Hi Mark, got the wrong end of the stick being too sensitive mucker, I was not talking about your horses when I mentioned lists, your selections I hadnt seen and it wasnt on my mind
Hope your well
Ian
No worries Mate I read the ‘DOOM most of to failure’ line and took it the wrong way! Ascot was TOUGH as expected but some great result on the whole. Scored today with these advices to my Group.
TELESCOPE @ 2.70 Makes all on paper but there’s value here.
HILLSTAR @ 23.00 And SNOW SKY @ 16.50 Should both be involved and can close the distance so that a Telescope isn’t needed…
SPINATRIX @ 5.00 Mainly useful for Forecast purposes.
KATAWI @ 75.00,10.50 is interesting. Decent jockey and trainer form could suggest this one goes closer then the market suspects.
IFFRANESI @ 7.20 With GOLDCREST @ 16.00 look next best.
SYRIAN PEARL @ 13.00 Could make all in this sized field.
TAROOQ @ 14.00 Up next with VINCENTTI @ 24.00 Also in with a good chance. (Ended up being the 239-1 Tri-cast behind the Fav.)
Very nice WINNERS and the good news is I have just registered to the new Forum under the more appropriate name of ‘BOOMmeister’ so could be contacting you soon enough Ian 😉