Think Long Term & The Golf Guru

ian FTS Blog 2 Comments

With our recent site issues, which we are still trying to resolve fully, I have not been able to do any blog posts but I hope we will soon be able to advance the site with some more content, posts and videos. It is a real annoyance when things happen beyond your control.

Additionally, our email system is not working properly so the support email, Kav’s email and the clinic email are not functioning and my FTS Income address is spasmodic. Please bear with us, I hope to have it solved as soon as possible.

We have been working on a whole load of new elements for the site to move us further forward again next season and it is important for you as a punter to understand that betting is constantly evolving and your expectations need to be in line with what is truly achievable.

I have had a few emails recently regarding football results and away teams not performing. If we look at the main European leagues, other than RB Leipzig who are unexpectedly flying in the Bundesliga and perhaps Atletico Madrid who seem to have lost their mojo in Primera, the leagues are pretty much how you would expect them to be. Our own league sees Chelsea restore themselves from last season and out in front and the next 5 teams could finish in any order. I still think we will see the same old Top 4 of Chelsea, Arsenal and the two Manchester clubs but it is tight and once the Champions League and Europa League resume things may sort themselves out. But Top 4 places could go right to the last game of the season again. Leicester have resumed their usual modus operandi and I still wake up sweating at night as to how they won the league last year. The fact is they did and anything can happen.

We have this current media driven mentality of deciding title winners, those to be relegated and top 4 places after every round of matches and it drives me nuts. Such short term-ism is then adopted into people’s betting. Away team performance and bettor’s reaction to it this year highlights that. Whilst the leagues have returned to norm, we cover 4 leagues on the odds sheets but also keep all the data from many others so we can adapt. The key is that whilst it seems like a long time, a season on betting terms really is nothing and you just need to set yourself up for the continuum that is football betting.

Certain leagues are down on away wins, Bundesliga is about 4% down on last season, Spain Primera around 2% down, France Ligue 1 about 7% down. On one of our databases blindly laying every away team this season is over 250 points up across around 10 leagues. That return includes commission and of course Alaves stunning win at Barcelona which accounted for an 80-point loss.

Some would see this as a system and jump straight on. I prefer to look at mean averages over a 5 year period, and I can assure you that the away wins will swing back to the mean. I am not sure when but they will – football is quite predictable.

If you focus on the mean numbers over 3-5 years, look at data and not panic, it is very predictable and all you need to do is then find pockets of value around that.

For example, the mean percentage of away wins in a certain league was 33%, that would equate to a price around 3.0 for the away win. I recently had an email asking that if that is the case, then if the bettor focused on just backing away teams over 3.0 he must win. Of course, you may stumble into, indeed you almost certainly will stumble into some nice winners, you may have even been lucky enough to find Alaves, however, if a high margin of those 33% away teams that have won are the likes of Chelsea, Juventus, Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, who most of the time are going to be odds on to even money, then suddenly that maths will fall apart.

You need to analyse each game in its own entirety and spot value and if you do that the results over time will take care of themselves. Away bettors will have it tough now but next season it may be that it returns to the mean and home bettors struggle. The key notion is that in one round, month or even a season of matches anything can happen and it has little bearing on the long-term investments of betting. But people still react and we see the statements, “I have not won this month”. Betting has no calendar and the sooner you adapt your thinking to that the easier your betting will become for you.

Final Call For FTS Football Clinics

A couple of quick announcements, we have a space available for the Birmingham clinic this Sunday at Crowne Plaza NEC so if anyone wants to come along then email me for details and we can get you signed up. We also have spaces left for Glasgow. These are incredibly detailed and bespoke events and we won’t be running them again for a while. So, if you miss out this time it might be a few years before you’ll get another chance to come along as we won’t be running them regularly.

To find out more or book your place now, visit:

Golf Guru – The Best External Tipster

I have also emailed about the best external tipster on FTS – you really should all be a member of this and take the long-term view. One of our clinic attendees is over £3,500 up in 8 months and straight out of the traps this year in the first week, he had bets and The Golf Guru tipped up a 66/1 winner. Of course, every week is not like that. This guy tips up about 30 weeks of tips on average with 3-4 golfers a week sent on a Wednesday. There is nothing else to it. The golfers are backed each way and in fields of 160 his record of winners is amazing. At an average price of over 45/1 he may go a month or 2 with no returns but one winner pays for the year and the rest is profit.

The guy is truly phenomenal and when people say to me they want to win money and don’t take advantage and a long-term view of a genius it baffles me. I cannot wait for the Wednesday email and you should be signing up to get it.

Join Now by clicking

Racing Weekend

Our FTS Income 10th Birthday weekend is sold out at the end of March. I will shortly be sorting out the payments for those who are bringing partners or require additional nights but we are just awaiting the second round of payments from attendees to come in. A few second round payments have failed to go through so we will get in contact but in the meantime please can you all check your PayPal accounts and get in touch with me if your payment has failed.

If these payments are not settled or the space is not required we can/will open it up to others as we have got a number of people who wish to come along but missed out when booking opened. It will be a great weekend and details will come out to those who are coming over the next few weeks ready for the big day at the end of March.

I will keep you posted with regards to site developments and hopefully all issues will be fixed soon, apologies it is out of our hands but we have been working hard to resolve them.

Comments 2

  1. I commented to Ian, that “I think know my golfers, but even I had never heard of Hudson Swafford” I know all about him now though. This was his 93rd PGA Tour event and he had never been in the winners circle before. How on earth then does any tipster hone in on him as one of his 3 tips for the tournament. I managed to get 70.0 about him on betfair, Oh yes I know Hudson Swafford alright now. It is not an isolated event either, the Golf Guru is quite brilliant and great fun to follow each weekend.

  2. I agree with Paul above, I have never heard of Hudson before, but it was very exciting to watch the match play out. We don’t know how the Guru does it, but he does it and mighty damn fine start to the year, I too got on him at 70.0 on betfair.

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