Time for Change
I have not blogged since Cheltenham owing to time reasons which I will explain further here. I will have a series of blogs over the next couple of weeks which will explain some major changes coming to the FTS set up over the next few weeks and months.
The structure of FTS Ultimate will not change but the delivery of strategies, mindset articles and general tuition are all moving to modular video based set ups.
Depending on your access level you will have access to a wide range of trading videos. I have redone all the Gambling Academy articles as video presentations. I have produced over 40 videos for Footballdatadirect.com and FTS for trading strategies and these will grow in number.
I have produced some stand alone PDF guides and trading videos to help people plot their way forward. We will in essence have an FTS video academy that will grow and cover all aspects of trading.
More on all that in a moment
Let me cover Cheltenham first. It was not a profitable week for me doing small 4 figures on the meeting. What people must understand is these are just 4 days racing out of 365 and 4 I like to have a “punt” on and my profit or loss will generally be decided by a decent priced winner. This year I hit the woodwork a lot and the returns produced a loss. People start whinging, moaning and basically saying I have no clue – based on 4 days. It is like the email I had yesterday asking me what will win the Grand National. I think I have had the winner of the National about 3 times in my 47 years, the best win coming from JG some 10 years a go with Comply or Die. I have no idea what will win the National and I apologise if that makes me a bad punter!
This morning I made a Portal payment for a withdrawal and that takes the figure I have paid out in withdrawals over 300k winnings for other people so I must do something right.
We ran a league at Cheltenham through the Daily Telegraph Fantasy League and the FTS Income winner was Greg Phillips. Congratulations then to Greg and he wins a wealth of prizes – 50% discount to the new FTS racing set up which will be launched at the end of the month, £100 in Free Bets and also a free place on the FTS Race Day 2018 which again will be open next month. *Accomodation not included*. Greg email me after the weekend and I will sort out all your prizes and the details.
We have a similar league running for Aintree and I will offer further prizes for the winner.
I am having a “punt” at Aintree and they are below I will update this post further today
1.50 Brain Power £ 100 Win 4.1
2.20 Nube Negra £75 Win 13, £75 Place BSP
2.50 Tea For Two £50 Win 17.5, £30 Place BSP
3.25 Cyrus Darius £40 Win 14.5, Air Horse One £30 Win 28, £25 Place Both of Them BSP
4.05 Balnaslow £75 Win 6.0, £75 Place BSP
4.40 Sizing Platinum £40 Win 27, Tommy Silver £60 Win 9.2, £30 Place Both BSP
5.15 Meep Meep £50 Win 15, £50 Place BSP
Hopefully a few winners in there and I will post my selections for Friday tomorrow morning.
This week on Twitter I posted my golf winnings and I managed to trade the tournament nicely securing 2.2k winnings on Patrick Reed and I had the top 3 covered for similar amounts with £800 roughly my worst position on any other winner.
Whenever I post a screen shot on Twitter I get mixed reactions, the trolls come out with their abuse, the losers come out with “why do you show that it only makes people feel bad or raises expectations” and the inquisitive ask how it is done.
Tackling all 3 , the trolls can go do one and continue if they wish to troll as I now simply tell them to F off having for years tried to appease them. The people who find it puts them down, you have it so so wrong. I post it to incentivise you that these things can be done, agreed you need to know how.
The inquisitive need to realise it is a long process based on the exactly the same principles. having a method I trust to spot events that are the wrong price and then executing them. Just like Cheltenham was one event, the Masters is only one event and should not be looked at in isolation. I have moved into golf trading as it is like my views I have on Liverpool over the years, there is huge over reactions. People take it as I have a dig for Liverpool (I do) but on a betting basis the view was never personal it was one of them being over-backed week in week out for all outcomes for years.
In this Masters I started of by backing Spieth. Spieth was 16.5 on Betfair 2 weeks before the tournament. A player who starts fast historically and has the best Augusta record over the last 5 years over anyone. I could not conceive how Spieth was 16.5 and Woods was 12.0 Woods to me was the lay of the century if you wish to take those sort of prices on and I tweeted the below on March 10th which is when I started looking at The Masters book, nearly a full month before not like most punters, oh it is the Masters this week what shall I bet on.
If I am not keen on laying at 12.0, which I am not it is just not my forte laying big prices I the go another way and choose others I would prefer to back as the maths tell me if he is too short others are too big and in my OPINION it was Spieth and Rose. I was keen to back Spieth early as he was due to play in his home state of Texas the week before and I knew if he performed half decently there he would shorten, a view subsequently confirmed by the Golf Guru. Sure enough he came top 5 in Houston and come the eve of the Masters was favourite at 10.0 on Betfair so I had played it fine to that point and the value was in my bet. The week of the Masters I then look at players I thought were too big for their chance of winning, I had Reed 70, Matsuyama 38, Fowler 29, Rose 20 all better than the price on offer. I could then put a line through a few on my book, Mcilroy is one I don’t think will win a Masters, putter does not hold up there – too short, Johnson had not been playing well – too short, Garcia – repeating is difficult – too short, Casey serial non winner – he did grab a title earlier this year, but more fell into it that, than was in the heat of battle and as such was too short having halved in price since March, Thomas needs more Augusta experience, too short, Mickleson too old – too short, Woods no chance – joke of a price and whoever backed him really needs to have a word with themselves as layers were taking the proverbial piss, Rahm maybe – right price, Stenson – maybe right price, Bubba – maybe right price. So that is how I end up where I end up. Of course you then need the event to go your way and that is where people get lost. They are more interested in winners than the process of value and if you keep betting value you win.
Just because the above is my opinion does not mean all my golfers will not shoot 76, 76 and miss the cut, they may well, but IF I repeat the process tournament to tournament and my model is sound then I will win over time.
The tournament played out perfectly. Spieth 66 first round and into 2.x enabling me to remove all liability so I have 3 free days to trade. Reed leading after day 2 so I could green profit. Fowler then playing well last two days meaning I could consolidate an approx 1500 -2k win over the main 3 players and £800+ the field
The point of this is to highlight it is a process over a month and after 10 years of experience full time trading and learning markets. If you follow me on Twitter you will see I have other golf winnings posted over this year and currently I have over 5k from this sport this year over 5 events, my first of trading it myself and with only relative small starting stakes each week.
The point I stress is this is one event you need to learn the whole process not just focus on one week/tournament, just like one game, week month on football is irrelevant.
We have tried numerous ways to educate over the last 10 years through the FTS site and I have to admit I have cocked it up as I have taken the view do what I do or part of what I do and you will be ok. That is coherently wrong. I need to get everyone who wishes to learn from me, back to basics and if someone came to me now and said I have never trade before what should I do I would lead them to learning one niche market inside out. That is in essence what I did, 3 years straight I layed the draw and nothing else when I started and that was the foundation for other markets. People wanting to trade, golf, every football market and make fast profit is the problem and I have not gone about it right, so hence it is time for change.
I have moved already to sharing files via Dropbox and this process will be extended through all of FTS racing and football as it allows instant access to what I do
The videos I have worked on are aimed at starting from scratch and learning a lot more about what you are doing.
I don’t ever want this to be a tipping site I want it to be one where you teach a man ( or woman) to fish (trade) and provide tools to do so. The trading days I did over the winter were a huge learning curve for me and continue to be, as those who attended have access to my files and I keep a close eye on it all. Less than 4 weeks people had given up, others were trading everything and losing and some have specialised and have grown banks over 50% in a short space of time. It just shows how the person is the problem/difference as opposed to the method
I have a video series focused on just one market and I think it will help people enormously along with mindset videos on niches and how to find an edge over time, so I am positive for the coming year.
Everything football wise I am now gearing towards the new season. 2017/18 is nearly done with we will have the World cup and we will be straight into a new season and that is what those of you who want to profit form football should be focusing on and we will have you set up perfectly for that season with the video layout and learning modules.
Over the coming weeks you will see the iste change to allow the presentation of this modular approach.
Ultimate will continue for 2018/19 seasons with two odds sheet variations and a poisson distribution model. The exact tools I use
A trading area for those who are members of Footballdatadirect, 1-2-1 and who attended trading days
There will be a free learning area covering football trading and mindset in general
A new FTS racing set up will be launched with videos and free proven methods included – max membership 50
I have to mention and deal with the external services.
We have Will Lattimore who has provided Backs for over 5 years to FTS and Lays last year. The lay service did not work and has ceased. The backing service has constantly profited and will continue and is still one of the best racing services online
The Golf Guru will continue, this is not for everyone but the guy is phenomenal but you have to understand what your betting and accept when backing at average prices of 45/1 and above that losing runs are inevitable he has profited nicely and I am sure will dig out a couple of nice winners over this summer.
Will and GG will be the only two external tipsters left on FTS and no others will be introduced going forward EXCEPT for an American sports service which has been simply phenomenal covering NHL and MLB and I am working on that now and will have details soon for you but a strict limited membership
Bankbuilder, Dave, The Syndicate, 30 Point Plan have all been abject disappointments in either results or the way they are a run. I am sorting this issue and will replace the lot. Those who have paid for these services will not lose out I will be sorting out a private members club for you of my own personal bets which will be shared via Dropbox. I am putting this together now and it will replace all the above and be far more profitable. It will only be bets I bet myself some from external sources but will be posted when I get them into dropbox so no waiting for emails and will also include my own trades such as golf etc. I just need to work on timings of info and logistics of posting every day and make sure it is flawless.
I don’t know all the numbers for the external services above as I am genuinely nothing to do with them rightly or wrongly but all I can do is credit people and move you to something I do that I know will work for you and not rely on others. Anyone who was a member of the above will get a chance to join the private members club and dropbox folder EXCEPT number smay have to be restricted slightly for prices, so the fair way will be first come first served but I hope to cover everyone who is involved and I will have details of that ready for the 1st May and I will email out over the coming weeks on this.
What I would like indication of as I need to hold these guys accountable for some of this is if anyone who is a member of the above services wishes to continue with the selections of that particular service, if you do I will ensure it happens just email me please on email@example.com
That si the starting point I will be back over next two days with Aintree picks and of course Ultimate members the football process tomorrow and next week I will have further details and a blog post on general information.