My experience with all these things, gambling, weight loss, fitness, business ideas is that they are talked about with enthusiasm but that wanes very quickly and once any sign of hardship or hard work kicks in people bin it off and move on to the next big idea they have. I hope through this series to try and help you keep at it and take some matters into your own hands.
Betting/Trading/Gambling is a multi-faceted skill that unfortunately most go about in an arse about face fashion and as such don’t succeed because there was never a clearly defined plan or goals to work to.
If we did a random poll of bettors/traders I am certain without doubt the driving motivation would be money. I want to win money and that is the starting point. It becomes much worse if the thought process is “I must win money”. That road is a road to destruction, if we must win money our sole focus is every single result. The sum does not matter but let’s say we need to win £500 a month, every £10 lost takes us away from that figure as the days tick down. If we are not hitting our target, pressure builds, pressure is a self-inflicted emotion, no one puts pressure on you, it is self-generated. We all feel pressure at various times in our life often irrationally, making a best man speech, we put pressure upon ourselves in the buildup, worried what other people will think of it. Will I be funny? Will people judge me? The fact is most people at a wedding want you to succeed, want you to make a good speech don’t want to laugh at you and unless they are an absolute numpty would not say anything to you if they did feel it didn’t go quite right. I have made wedding speeches, attended a lot of weddings I have never ever heard, “well that was rubbish”, people want to have a good time, but we put pressure on ourselves to perform. First tee shot at golf, penalty kick in football, pressure is a self-inflicted emotion. When it then comes to money it becomes often more intense.
If you are betting to win money and under pressure to do that your chance of success is hindered and the first question if it is something that causes you a lot of angst should be, what else could I do to earn/make a few quid that would relieve that pressure but in betting some just sit there deriding their luck. Unfortunately in this game if you do it seriously you will soon find out that nothing ever falls in a nice uniform monthly way to fit in with your expectations. Expect the unexpected and plan for it.
If we set goals, plan and focus on process, we know where we can head to and we can bet/trade in a more relaxed state and that is a key to success.
Setting Goals – New Year tends to be the time people start to announce goals and changes to their life. A magical date where everything will suddenly improve and get better. My mum was always starting a diet on New Year and then every Monday through the year after that as the initial goal rarely made it past 3rd Jan.
Some statistics of a study of Americans who made New Years Goals/Resolutions, 25% dropped it in the first week, 29% by week 2, 36% after 1 month, 6 months in, 54% had packed in and after 6 months only 4% went on to say they were successful.
Another study in early 2000’s found 52% of people who set resolutions were CONFIDENT of SUCCESS, 8 months later only 12% of those people still claimed it as success, 10 years later the same study that number had dropped to 9%.
The most popular goals/resolutions are, more exercise, eat healthier, lose weight, save money, quit smoking – a further study in Sweden looked at this and broke them down, 70% of the goals/resolutions focused on physical health, 10% on self improvement and 5% on psychological health.
Reasons for failure are many but most common are unrealistic goals, not keeping track of progress, amazingly 23% of people forgot, I am not sure where you go with that, and 10% made the whole process far too complicated and made too many goals.
Whilst I can talk about goal-setting I am perhaps not the best person to have onside in this field as I am no nonsense and hate lazy people or excuse makers, with a passion and I let them know it.
If you want to lose weight, physically it is not difficult, stop eating plain and simple. Stop stuffing your face and eat better quality foods, portion sizes etc. I plan a menu every week and have done for 20+ years. I shop to that menu and then cook to that menu, and I don’t then buy food I didn’t need that may go to waste or buy food that is unnecessary and unhealthy. I accept there is psychological battles, I have never comfort ate, I don’t really get it, if being fat makes you miserable and then comfort eating cheers you up I struggle to correlate them. The comfort eating is making you fat which makes you unhappy so it isn’t working is it, is the short term fix worth the long term pain. As I say I am black and white with things like that, and I am of the opinion most use the nonsense as excuses to simply just not get the job done. I was unhappy and needed some chocolate does not really wash with me. Excuses do me in on stuff like this as does I will give up smoking, I’ll start next week, why next week, go and throw them in the bin and the lighters and stop, simple. No one ever went to rehab for smoking I assure you. Excuses, delays but it all comes under the same umbrella, lack of planning, lack of goals setting and sweeping statements that are pretty meaningless. I’ll tell my mates I want to lose weight as it sounds good and that is what they want to hear, when your still 20 stne in 6 months you actually just look like a lazy prat with no will power.
Betting trading is the same, I will make a success of it, I want to make a success of it, I can do it – but only if that guy posts his bets I can follow as I cannot be bothered to actually put some work in and do this for myself.
It has to be down to you and the way to go about it is to set goals and plan what you are doing, we will focus on betting/trading but it is the same for anything.
Goals need to measurable, actionable, realistic and timed. A further study of men showed they were 22% more likely to succeed in change if they accepted self-efficacy a concept by Albert Bandura which refers to an individual’s beliefs to execute behaviour necessary to produce specific performance attainments. So for example someone struggling to manage a chronic illness but feels confident they can get back on track and improve health by working hard and following the correct medical advice. A type of self belief if you will. Relying on social support conversely produced negative outcomes, i.e. relying on others or trying to hide within a group was detrimental to goal achievements – this is very apt in the betting trading world.
For my goal setting I split them into pots – Health, Wealth, Family, etc. , they can be personal to you.
I then decide which ones I can deal with now, not next week now and plan those out with an immediate start. Others are then longer term usually 3-5 years and planned out accordingly. Each one then broken into small attainable chunks that I can act in, deliver and measure. All of that takes work, we all have mental battles, don’t let them become excuses.
They must be realistic, so let’s say a goal is – I want to become a successful trader/bettor.
What does that actually mean and what is involved, what research have you done to see how that plays out. What are you going to do to make it happen. If you think it will take 12 months I can tell you, you are miles out, 3-5 years minimum, minimum if you start today to look to do it properly.
It then becomes a series of questions and this list is not exhaustive
1. What are you defining as successful – it will be unique to you?
2. What skills do you have now?
3 What experience do you have?
4 What sport are you going to focus on?
5 What time do you have available?
6. What funds do you have available?
7 What weaknesses do you have?
8 What threats are there to you achieving this goal?
9 How will it impact your family?
As I answer these questions I raise up all the issues and I can then plan them out into a timeline of tasks for my goals, learning the skills requisite, further reading/learning for my weaknesses and skills, financial planning to cover bad runs, family time, sports research – each little task takes me closer to my overall goal.
That guy has a lot more chance than the guy – “ I know a bot about football, flick the laptop on and start trading your money away” – Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.
I can tell you now, betting/trading is math’s plain and simple, people don’t fail because of the math’s they fail through complete lack of preparation in how that math’s works and plays out over time and the mental battles it will throw at you. Laziness, excuses and thinking they are better than they are or it is easy. As I talk about it I convince myself how mental it all is, that people dive into this game completely ill prepared, particularly if we roll back to money being the motivator and the fact you will almost certainly lose money it then makes that scenario worse, its like the weight loss guy eating 12 doughnut a day – it isn’t going to work.
Learn the process, test with small stakes, plan for every eventuality and then and only then step into this world gradually and then fully.
As I say I am amazed at people who throw money at this, I tell everyone small stakes etc. but they want to rush in, up their stakes, all about the money, money money and then of course a bad run comes and they curse their luck.
If we had set goals, mapped them out, asked all the questions, set a plan, do you not think you would have more chance of success.
I maintain all can do this, most don’t through n fault of anyone but themselves and a complete lack respect for the processes and approach needed, skills that can be learned – in a relaxed manner with small stakes, see the highs and lows, understand markets etc. etc.
If you value this series start today on those goals and plans, next time I will go deeper into planning solely related to betting trading and setting out a plan that makes you succeed
One Response
Sure I have never missed listening to every Pod; yes even the sweary ones!!
However, the Plan to provide a written word version is an excellent idea. For
me it gives a clarity to the message within.
It also enables the reader to pick out segments and build a Portfolio to re visit
time and time again. Which I intend to do.
Finally, a big thank you for the Summer School. IMO the most valuable piece
of work within FTS. Has changed my way of working on a daily basis and reaping
huge rewards.