World Cup Blog & Bets Day Eight

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World Cup Blog & Bets Day Eight

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19/06/2014

I guess the only question for today as an England fan is “will we or won’t we?”. Will we still be in the tournament after tonight or will we be looking like going the same way as  Australia, Cameroon and a little surprisingly Spain, and facing an early exit. Of course we cannot go out tonight but defeat will make it likely.

Yesterday Holland overcame a resilient Australia. It was never a penalty for me and may well have scuppered a couple of the CS bets. The 1-2 HT score did trade nicely. I have to say Cahill’s goal was an absolute belter, reminded me of me in my youth. Spain crashed out and we landed the unders and the Chile +1 bet. Apologies I typed the wrong odds from notes here, the bet will always be correct but I scribble prices all over the place and I backed that at 2.04 not 2.58 which was the +0.5 line.

I had a decent bet on Croatia and they saw off a poor Cameroon side who eclipse Greece as the worst team I have seen so far, Greece can still of course win that title back Kostas!  What Alex Song was doing is quite beyond me and it is moments like that when coaches need to make a stand for the game. If I was coach he would never play again.

Whenever I see Song play it reminds me of an argument I had in a pub with a gooner back when Song played for Arsenal. This guy actually tried to tell me in all seriousness that Song was better than Patrick Viera. You gotta laugh and we can be one deluded nation at times and more on that later.

So an ok day, could have been better but the big shock of course was the departure of Spain. I did tip up Chile as a dark horse and stand by it. The energy levels are superb, they have great players and I am not sure any team will be really comfortable playing them in the knock out phase. Spain though were just awful, Alonso had an absolute nightmare. Cassilas showed that Mourinho was right at Madrid to start to end his career. Costa looked a shadow of the player he was at Athletico Madrid this season and long may that continue in a blue shirt next season. Busquets had a horror miss and showed why it is 64 caps and no goals. I thought they were just awful with only Iniesta looking like doing anything. I can;t see Del Bosque keeping his job and he must take some blame as I am not sure he got selection right in either game, but whatever 11 players Spain fielded should not be going down 7-1 in a couple of games to any opposition.

So onto today and Howard Webb makes his debut in the centre for Colombia v Ivory Coast. If he lets play flow like he did in the 2010 final then we could have quite an entertaining game. These two countries look to be battling for top spot in Group C and Ivory Coast have an almost dead cert 3 points in the last game as they take on Greece. So tonight it will be all to play for. I think Ithe Ivorians have a great line up but they took their time to get going against Japan and only when the match looked like slipping away did they turn the heat up. Colombia are hard to assess as their first round game was like a walkover.

The market has Colombia as favourites by a margin and I am not sure I agree. Todays opponents will be much more of a handful for Colombia who did look to be susceptible at the back and the power of the Ivory Coast should not be underestimated, particularly if they start the game better than they did against Japan.

A draw is not bad for either side either. I make Colombia too short so I will split stakes across the Ivory Coast at 3.85, Ivory Coast Draw No Bet at 2.78 and a small dabble on Overs at 2.16.

I will have small plays on 1-2 and 1-3 at 15 and 44.

All these positions are of course open for trading.

The big one is up next as Uruguay take on England in what looks like the battle for qualification. I always like to think of myself as a fairly honest football fan, I am happy to say Spurs are crap because 95% of the time they are. This week, I will be honest, has done my head in when all I have heard is how well England played. This was a poor Italian side. A side with an ageing midfield star and a couple of other notable players.

Other than that they were a far cry from great Italian sides of the past and they beat us – comfortably in my opinion. Gerrard and Hendersons combined passes add up to about 50% of Pirlo and De Rossi. The Italians controlled the game, were happy for England to have the ball in the right areas passing it around in front of them.

Yes we do have a bit more excitement about us in the youth but as I said after the game I expect much more. We have a guy in Rooney paid 300k a week who if the media is anything to go by,if he does not play centre loses the ability to play football. Yes of course he is better as a number 10 but this is meant to be our talismanic player. I watched the Dutch last night and you could tell Robben to play centre back he would still have an effect on the game. We are average, I know Spain crashed and they left Xavi on the bench last night, I am not sure we have a player as good as Xavi in our set up, Spain have the luxury of leaving him out (even if it may have proved unwise). We don’t have a player that can truly turn a game like, Suarez, Robben, Van Persie, Ronaldo, Pirlo etc etc. We have a lot of mediocrity and seem happy to settle for it and big it up at times.

So today I want to see more, more speed, more attacking flair and getting wide and create clear cut chances not shots from 25 yards out all the time. The one time we did break with pace and width we scored and Rooney did show he can play out of centre for 30 seconds. I cannot see a change in personnel, we have had a culture the last 20 years since Hoddle didn’t pick Gascoigne of just picking people on name alone – on that note the untouchable, must not be criticised, Gerrard can shape up as well – so it will be the same players but I expect Rooney in the middle.

The opponents showed they are not that great and one has to assess was it just a bad night or are they not that good, and will Suarez returning have a huge impact.

I have swayed back and forth on this game, watched both the first games again of each side and changed my mind numerous times. Everything is at stake and I am going with England to finally come through one of these games and win. We are open to improvement if the attitude is right and old sulky boy Rooney stops blaming the world and finally decides to try and show he can play the game in an England shirt.

Suarez can turn any game but looking at how they played against Costa Rica, I think they genuinely will struggle, the midfield if we get at them are there for the taking and if we do that we can control the game and utilise this your generation we have. If we stand off 5 yards like we did against Italy we will struggle to win any game.

Of course it is England and no matter what they will make us squirm and agonise as it is never straight forward. England have steadily shortened and I missed the 2.5, I cannot now bet them at 2.1 (note to self to be on the ball when England play as free bets are always available through the patriotic system)

So I will have a small dabble in the CS market to give me some interest whilst removing my finger nails throughout the game. When you struggle with blood pressure two teams you don’t want to follow are Spurs and England for goodness sake!. There is nothing in the Over/Unders and I think it may well be tight.

 

I will back 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2 at 9.6, 11.5 and 10 with a view to trading and hopes the boys put in a performance and I can write a glowing review tomorrow.

As if it matters after our emotions have been beaten up but we do have the small matter and it is a small matter of Japan v Greece in the late game. Greece awful and can’t score, Japan nearly just as awful and cannot defend. Where do you go? Japan are rightly favourites but even Greece could get a goal tonight and it may or may not be enough.

The draw is a fair priced 3.55 so I will have a small dabble on that.

I will also have very small plays in the CS market on 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2 for trading purposes at 15, 11 and 20.

That is it and I will say it gain with gusto COME ON ENGLAND!

 

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5 Responses

  1. Ian,
    Enjoying the write ups mate and made a nice little profit to small stakes so thanks.

    Totally agree on England, don’t see why everyone is getting so excited after last weeks performance, few positives in Sterling but then they are counteracted by negatives like Rooney and a woeful Gerrard.

    Got to be positive tonight though as Uruguay looked weak.

    Come on England!!!!!

  2. i get a lot of emails,just as you do Ian,i been reading yours for a couple of days now,and very impressed i will read more often,i looked at your bets and they are similar to mine (yours are probably more profitable) i think England will win today and i think easily,i just wished we never brought Stevie and lamps,Allana Oxe Berkly Sterling.Sturridge and Rooney up front,with our young guns in the middle then we will have hunger,remember our next tournament Andros Townsend and walcott come back as well,for get the back four as Luke Shaw gray cahill will be definates and Joe hart of course,i also think Ashley Cole should never have been left behind not your best english player for the last 15 years,i am going for a 3-1 3-0 1-0 England,if we win just one nil we wont beat costa rica,one more point on steve gerr they say he cost Liverpool the title on his slip to Chelsea,his other mistake was he passed the ball without looking to anichebe at west brom,and that cost Liverpool as well,not that i care as i did not want liverpool to win title it just makes Chelsae’s life harder to catch 18 titles,ha ha ha ha

  3. Last nights results lead us to reassess Hollands chances, it looks like the Spain scoreline flattered them as Spain are clearly just dreadful and even though it will be meaningless as far as the competition goes I expect Australia will be fancying their chances or a memorable result for the country in the last game, all be it they will have to cope without Cahil.

    I still expect Holland to win the group and I expect them to beat who ever they face in the next round whether it be Croatia, Mexico or Brazil.

    Tonight is a must win for both Uruguay and England which should result in a great match. Defeat for either team will almost certainly eliminate them, assuming Italy beat Costa Rica, If England do win goal difference will be key as to whether they will need to beat Costa Rica or not, a draw doesn’t rule England out just yet but will almost certainly result in an extremely difficult last match as Costa Rica aren’t as bad as first thought and will probably only need a draw to qualify. I think this game will end 2-2 so England will probably have it all to do in the last game, I do believe the second place in the group is between England and Costa Rica, even if Uruguay win tonight I can’t see them beating Italy.

    The other two games tonight are only of interest as I see them as having good trading possibilities

  4. Took your advice re Chile @ 50.00. Now at 25.00 would you advise
    selling now?

    1. Not yet Keith they are through so next game is a freebie to see who they will line up against in the knockout and then take some action after. For example if they play Brazil I may lay them in that match odds market as opposed to trading the Win The Tournament market.

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