Here are five words I never ever thought I would write when I started FTS some 7 years back.
“I feel sorry for Iran”.
Having taken a view against the market with the unders I was really pleased to be right and see no goals, until of course, Messi pops up with a sublime goal in the 92nd minute. It was a great strike and shows how one lapse in concentration against one moment of magic changes games. If the defender shows him the other way Iran get a well deserved draw.
On top of that I did feel it was a penalty, admittedly a tough call as Zabaleta does glance the ball first. There was spell where Iran really took it to Argentina in the second half and the save where the keeper Romero tipped the header over the bar was an absolute world class save.
If I was patting myself for getting that one right I could hardly have got the next two games wrong as the African sides bit me in the butt, once again along with some help from officials. Football betting can do that to you at times.
Ghana were transformed against Germany in a game of two halves. The first half saw Germany probing, getting in behind the Ghanaians but Muller very isolated in the box on his own and a 0-0 HT played out. I always thought that if Germany took the lead that would be game over and it would be how many they go on to get.
How wrong I was, the second half was like two heavy weight boxers just slugging punches at each other. Germany did take the lead but fair play to the Ghana team who looked woeful in the first game, two excellent finishes in a few minutes saw them 2-1 up and it was Germany on the kosh. On came record World Cup scorer Klose and scores an equaliser with his first touch and the rest of the game was very open as both sides pushed for a winner. Germany looked the most likely in my opinion but nobody could deny Ghana the point. The loss was made up for by watching a great entertaining game of football which after all is what the tournament is about.
In the last game Nigeria were improved but a goal is a goal and Dzeko was denied a clear goal which would have given Bosnia the lead. Again the assistant referee is looking straight across the line and did not see it. Nigeria then go up the other end, grab a goal themselves (in the interests of fairness I did not think it was foul on the defender just weak defending) and with that Bosnia exited the tournament. On reflection Nigeria were much improved but we will never know the effect of going 1-0 down would of had.
Belgium v Russia is the first game today. One of my pre tournament dark horses Belgium should be encouraged by the stuttering of other big teams and look to build on a hard fought win against Algeria. In that game they had to break down a very resilient 11 men behind the ball Algeria side who had taken the lead through a penalty. Today they play a team who need to go for a victory themselves in Russia who drew their opening encounter. This could well play into Belgiums hands and their talented array of players. Belgium looked much improved second half and when they got the first goal I always felt a second was on the cards. If Belgium get it going today I can see nothing but Russia struggling to stay with them. I will note that Belgium got it going after they took two Spurs players off in Dembele and Chadli (now Wilmots knows what I have had to put up with all season) and I will be surprised if they are in the starting line up today.
I like the price on Belgium at 2.18. I don’t expect it to be a goal fest and the market seems to agree with 1.64 for the Unders – No thank you!
I will back 2-0 at 10.5 and 3-0 at 25 small and hope again for trading positions
I will also have a small interest on the 1-0 HT at 4.4
Next up South Korea take on Algeria and we see a team struggling for goals against a team that sets up to prevent them. It could be dour but if Algeria go on the front foot there counter attacking could see them prevail. Both teams really need a win so some caution has to be abandoned and hopefully they go for it. The market has Korea as favourites and I don’t so that makes my mind up for me.
I will back Algeria at 3.15. I will have small interest in the overs at 2.54 for trading purposes. A couple of small bets also on the 1-2 and 0–2 at 14 and 17.5 also for trading opportunities.
The festival continues with USA v Portugal at 11 PM. I expected Portugals neighbours Spain to bounce back from a big defeat in the first game and they failed to. I don’t see the same for Portugal tonight. Ghana were woeful against the US and going down in the first minute is never ideal. Portugal have defensive issues with Pepe banned and injuries to Coentrao and Alves. That apart they are a different class to the opposition tonight. It is all in for Portugal and I expect them to prevail reasonably comfortably.
I will not back the 1.8 win odds so will play a few correct scores. 0-2 at 10, 1-2 at 9.4 and 1-3 at 17 hopefully enable a profit somewhere to be made.
