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Anyone do any in play betting/trading watching the games live on betfair?
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gurds1991
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March 9, 2020 - 10:24 pm
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Was wondering if there are any others who do in play trading/betting on the football from watching games live.

 

This is something I have started doing regularly on the side recently as it is another good way to win money as well along with fixed odds set and forget. Is a lot of mileage in it as well but have to be consistent every week watching the games and doing the same processes in play. Even if you watch say 1 football match a day most days and practice the in play with discipline and concentration you can improve this side of it over time.

For in play trading/betting you have to compute the odds in play and then compare them to the market prices and identify where there is good value to get involved. If there is good value for a bet that you want to have then you should place the bet in play, if there is no value or negative value then don’t bet. Wait and only enter market if a good opportunity is there. I use the tables and statistics from Paulo’s site as well to further inform judgement as well as watching live pictures.

Today for example I was involved in two in play trades on the side from watching games. The first was the turkish one genclerbirligi vs antalysapor. Watching the first half I entered the market around 15 mins in laying over 2.5 goals at price of 3. At that point in time I believed the over 2.5 price should have been 5.4. It was a very quiet game. So I layed over 2.5 and also over 1.5. The score at HT was 0-0, so I then reduced liabilities. From the table on Paulo’s site (https://www.academiadasapostas.com/) , for that game, the home side genclerbirligi were shown to start the 2nd half strong and the away side concede lots early in the 2nd half. This was reason for reducing some liabilities. This is exactly what happened in 2nd half, the home team took the lead. I then had to get out of the 1.5 and 2.5 markets. The game became lot more open later in the 2nd half and I saw good value backing over 1.5 and 2.5 which is what I did, as well as laying the home side in the last 15 mins at odds of 1.32 as the table again showed that the home side concede lots in the last 15 mins. Again this is exactly what happened, the game ended 1-1 and good win.

 

Also was involved in leicester vs aston vllla, this was already a set and forget bet for me from a LTD system lay draw. Leicester started the game odds of 1.5 or so. I watched the first 20 mins and it was clear Leicester were playing very well moving the ball about really well. The tables showed as well that aston villa concede more late in 1st half and they concede loads in 2nd half away. Leicester start to get going lot more after 20 mins at home. I backed Leicester at 1.6 as I felt their price should have been around 1.4 from in play. I also backed over 1.5 at 1.55 as I felt there was a very tiny bit of value there from my valuation of the odds in play. I also backed over 2.5. It was 1-0 HT. Because I knew from the tables as well that Aston villa concede so many goals 2nd half and Leicester score the most goals at home in the 2nd half and especially late in 2nd half (61 min – 90) I backed over 2.5 at HT and over 3.5 at HT.

Vardy came on in 2nd half for Ihenacho and scored a pen, I then left free bet over 2.5, over 3.5 and good win there as well. Is another avenue to explore as well as an additional investment vehicle in play betting watching games and getting experience in valuing prices in play, discipline, etc 

 

Doesn’t have to be very time consuming, even one game a day most days and watching say 2 games a day on weekends is good practice as well to improve in play trading and can be used to complement other forms of betting .

When we merge our desire with our faith we can take action from a place of peace rather than control

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johnpetrie86
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March 10, 2020 - 11:04 am
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Which data did you use to arrive at a price of 5.4 for over 2.5 goals after 15 minutes in the Turkish game? And how do you adjust this price based on minutes played etc? The whole “creating value” inplay doesn’t really make sense to me to be honest. In my mind a price is either value or not pre-game and then as time elapses value isn’t created, it’s just that your risk v reward changes. To me it seems almost impossible to quantify how a team playing well or the game being dull in the first 10 minutes should affect prices inplay, but I guess if you have some sort of model and it seems to work for you long term then good luck and go for it. For me I think it is too difficult to price games minute by minute as the action unfolds, I’d much rather stick to fixed odds or trading based on identifying pre-match value. But I’d be genuinely interested in how you price as the game unfolds?

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gurds1991
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March 10, 2020 - 12:03 pm
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The way I came up with this price is judging what probability out of 10 I feel the game has of going over 2.5 at that period in time from the in play. I then convert the probability into odds.

 

I re-calculate prices every 4 mins of the game, if value still there hold if entering a position. If the value is significantly against me later in match I can choose to exit the position or reduce liability. If it is in the last 5 mins or so of the game and it is too late to re-adjust then let initial position run

I seem to have good ability of coming up with the prices, sometimes the market price is exactly the same as the price I make it myself from watching in play and evaluating price. I use 100pt bank for this type of in play stuff and the biggest risk at any one time in play is an absolute maximum of 6-7 units of stake. Baring in mind, this approach is trading so you are not really going to lose all those units in one go. Maximum odds I will lay at in play is 4. Is combination of backing and laying. 

 

There are other people who use same approach in play- Paulo Rebelo, psychoff, etc. Paulo has won something obscene, hundreds of millions. There is merit in this approach, but takes a lot of concentration and consistency and discipline. Main stuff of what I do is data driven set and forget but I want to improve this in play type stuff with this approach long term. I have started on the side in play stuff very small to begin with and will see how it gets on long term.

When we merge our desire with our faith we can take action from a place of peace rather than control

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starlord
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March 10, 2020 - 3:42 pm
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I have started with small stakes recently, you should look up “world cup 2014 dairy” on the geeks toy forum, it was done by a guy called Wazowsky, I believe he was one of paulo’s students.  He works on the basis of teams controlling the game and the betting of a positive expected value (ie. a goal)

I also backed Leicester at 1.6 as I seen they where really putting on the pressure against Villa, when using a trading ladder the odds remained very stable up until the goal, from memory the most they went against me was two ticks.  If the game was reversed and Villa where pressuring then obviously Leicesters odds would have drifted.  Since this way is trading the risk v reward is very good, set a stop loss at x ticks… unless of course the other team score a goal but when watching live you should start to see the momentum changing.  If both teams are evenish and plenty of back and forth action look at the over markets, the time decay will become a factor however.  The reverse can be used for backing unders with time decay on your side.

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Lord Dio
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March 10, 2020 - 10:52 pm
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johnpetrie86 said
Which data did you use to arrive at a price of 5.4 for over 2.5 goals after 15 minutes in the Turkish game? And how do you adjust this price based on minutes played etc? The whole “creating value” inplay doesn’t really make sense to me to be honest. In my mind a price is either value or not pre-game and then as time elapses value isn’t created, it’s just that your risk v reward changes. To me it seems almost impossible to quantify how a team playing well or the game being dull in the first 10 minutes should affect prices inplay, but I guess if you have some sort of model and it seems to work for you long term then good luck and go for it. For me I think it is too difficult to price games minute by minute as the action unfolds, I’d much rather stick to fixed odds or trading based on identifying pre-match value. But I’d be genuinely interested in how you price as the game unfolds?

  

It depends I guess. You’re right value isn’t created by waiting for odds to simply change but that doesn’t mean you can’t identify a value position in play.

For example roughly 69-70% of the time, if 0-1, you get another goal from 60 mins onwards so you’d expect odds 3.33 ish (simplistic example). 

If you have a method that wins 75%+ of the time, and you can get 3.3, that would be value. 

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gurds1991
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March 11, 2020 - 1:28 am
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Lord Dio said

johnpetrie86 said

Which data did you use to arrive at a price of 5.4 for over 2.5 goals after 15 minutes in the Turkish game? And how do you adjust this price based on minutes played etc? The whole “creating value” inplay doesn’t really make sense to me to be honest. In my mind a price is either value or not pre-game and then as time elapses value isn’t created, it’s just that your risk v reward changes. To me it seems almost impossible to quantify how a team playing well or the game being dull in the first 10 minutes should affect prices inplay, but I guess if you have some sort of model and it seems to work for you long term then good luck and go for it. For me I think it is too difficult to price games minute by minute as the action unfolds, I’d much rather stick to fixed odds or trading based on identifying pre-match value. But I’d be genuinely interested in how you price as the game unfolds?

  

It depends I guess. You’re right value isn’t created by waiting for odds to simply change but that doesn’t mean you can’t identify a value position in play.

For example roughly 69-70% of the time, if 0-1, you get another goal from 60 mins onwards so you’d expect odds 3.33 ish (simplistic example). 

If you have a method that wins 75%+ of the time, and you can get 3.3, that would be value. 

  

Yh, only reason I was interested in this in play approach is because I have seen Paulo has won obscene amounts doing this sort of in play approach.  It’s taken him years of doing it but it is something to have a lot of respect for as well.

Obviously he is an extreme example and is somewhat of a celebrity in Portugal as a result of his exploits in the in play betting. But there are quite a few at psychoff’s level as well that no one hears about because they don’t make themselves known online. 

Success leaves clues as they say, you can learn a lot from all sorts of successful people in different areas- betting, real estate, etc.  I have learnt a lot from Ian myself. I think it’s great that he does what he does helping people with the resources that he provides to improve their lives. Even though this game is not easy it makes you a special person in my view and a better person. You can win money in lots of different ways – set and forget betting,  which I have experience in and why I still do it. You have to adapt as well every couple yrs a little bit. For example when Messi retires from Barcelona it will be a lot more dangerous in the future for people like me who bet big on Barcelona especially at home. Messi’s been at Barcelona for so many yrs and is superhuman and is able to come up with the goods so many times at home and again this season he has done so many times and bailed me out quite a few. Something to be aware of in the future when he does eventually retire.

We have already seen the ramifications for Real Madrid ever since Ronaldo left. The team is in a big mess, last season they were shambolic and it was lucky that they were losing so many games at home instead of drawing. This season they can’t even be trusted to win simple games at home which they would win easily if Ronaldo was still playing in this team in this setup. As evidenced for example 2017/18 real madrid beat girona 6-3 at home which is something they have no chance of doing nowadays against a similarly ranked team in the current league, with Ronaldo banging in 4 goals in that game. 

Other ways people who trade in play watching live pictures combined with their betting and football knowledge,  stats, tables, etc. There are those as well who trade pre live before the game kicks off which is something I used to do initially at one point in the past.  

Good to keep an open mind and be open to new ideas. If trying a new idea then you can start small on the side and learn more and stick with it long term and do well with it as well. 

When we merge our desire with our faith we can take action from a place of peace rather than control

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johnpetrie86
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March 11, 2020 - 11:47 am
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Lord Dio said

johnpetrie86 said

Which data did you use to arrive at a price of 5.4 for over 2.5 goals after 15 minutes in the Turkish game? And how do you adjust this price based on minutes played etc? The whole “creating value” inplay doesn’t really make sense to me to be honest. In my mind a price is either value or not pre-game and then as time elapses value isn’t created, it’s just that your risk v reward changes. To me it seems almost impossible to quantify how a team playing well or the game being dull in the first 10 minutes should affect prices inplay, but I guess if you have some sort of model and it seems to work for you long term then good luck and go for it. For me I think it is too difficult to price games minute by minute as the action unfolds, I’d much rather stick to fixed odds or trading based on identifying pre-match value. But I’d be genuinely interested in how you price as the game unfolds?

  

It depends I guess. You’re right value isn’t created by waiting for odds to simply change but that doesn’t mean you can’t identify a value position in play.

For example roughly 69-70% of the time, if 0-1, you get another goal from 60 mins onwards so you’d expect odds 3.33 ish (simplistic example). 

If you have a method that wins 75%+ of the time, and you can get 3.3, that would be value. 

  

Yes true, betting something like second half goals is identifying value inplay. But that is done by first identifying profitable methods pre-match and executing if conditions are met inplay. I was more thinking about people who sit and watch a game and identify a price as value based on nothing more than what they think the price of certain markets should be due to what they are seeing. That’s not for me, I need calculated numbers which I then follow to the letter. Using your own qualitative judgement just opens up a huge can of worms in my opinion.

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Lord Dio
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March 11, 2020 - 12:39 pm
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johnpetrie86 said

Lord Dio said

johnpetrie86 said

Which data did you use to arrive at a price of 5.4 for over 2.5 goals after 15 minutes in the Turkish game? And how do you adjust this price based on minutes played etc? The whole “creating value” inplay doesn’t really make sense to me to be honest. In my mind a price is either value or not pre-game and then as time elapses value isn’t created, it’s just that your risk v reward changes. To me it seems almost impossible to quantify how a team playing well or the game being dull in the first 10 minutes should affect prices inplay, but I guess if you have some sort of model and it seems to work for you long term then good luck and go for it. For me I think it is too difficult to price games minute by minute as the action unfolds, I’d much rather stick to fixed odds or trading based on identifying pre-match value. But I’d be genuinely interested in how you price as the game unfolds?

  

It depends I guess. You’re right value isn’t created by waiting for odds to simply change but that doesn’t mean you can’t identify a value position in play.

For example roughly 69-70% of the time, if 0-1, you get another goal from 60 mins onwards so you’d expect odds 3.33 ish (simplistic example). 

If you have a method that wins 75%+ of the time, and you can get 3.3, that would be value. 

  

Yes true, betting something like second half goals is identifying value inplay. But that is done by first identifying profitable methods pre-match and executing if conditions are met inplay. I was more thinking about people who sit and watch a game and identify a price as value based on nothing more than what they think the price of certain markets should be due to what they are seeing. That’s not for me, I need calculated numbers which I then follow to the letter. Using your own qualitative judgement just opens up a huge can of worms in my opinion.

  

Yes I think “SecretSportsTrader” on Twitter does this. It’s not an approach I would ever want to take because it’s not really quantifiable in terms of recording results/entry etc, every game is just subjective/guess work to an extent. Not to say it doesn’t work for some, just isn’t for me. I like to work with numbers/data. 

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