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Hedging vs "scratch on unders" vs letting it ride?
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Callum
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April 20, 2020 - 1:00 am
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Looking to start a discussion around the pros and cons of each of these three options.

 

Say you’ve found an overs system that produced 25 points profit from 200 bets and you’d like to test it.

Is it generally accepted that all three options mentioned in the title will, over the long term, result in the same number of points profit?

Am I correct in assuming the only major difference between each method is a smoothing of variance? With “letting it ride” being the most volatile and hedging being the least volatile? (scratch on all other outcomes being a middle ground).

From watching a limited number of markets as well as speaking to other more seasoned traders, this is my understanding. Am I over simplifying or is it true that the only purpose of trading, whether it’s hedging or scratching, is to help with variance?

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Lord Dio
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April 20, 2020 - 10:17 pm
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It does smooth itself out. The only very rare occasion it doesn’t and where trading is superior is say when you have an edge on early goals so you might green up on O2.5 after 15 mins but not necessarily have an edge on O2.5 itself as a straight bet. I’d say thats pretty uncommon though.

People like to convince themselves that trading/hedging etc is smarter, sexier blah blah but ultimately it’s rarely any better IMO. Twitter will show you all opinions on it, from those who even think scratching the unders for a “free bet” is pointless. Let them think that. 

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@capitalchrisw
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April 21, 2020 - 12:46 am
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Hello

I would say that which ever system you’re using that you should have an exit plan and that you should stick to that plan.

Set and forget is fine if that’s what you want, it works well with automation and for those with little time.

If you wish to trade then know what outcome you want before you enter the market and act accordingly once your desired outcome happens.

So if trading O2.5 with a plan to exit on an early goal, then hedge after that goal.

If you are laying the draw you would hedge on a goal, rather than wait to see if it went to 2-0 as it is also likely to be 1-1 and therefore lose.

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Lord Dio
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April 21, 2020 - 9:53 am
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@capitalchrisw said
 

If you are laying the draw you would hedge on a goal, rather than wait to see if it went to 2-0 as it is also likely to be 1-1 and therefore lose.

  

Not necessarily Chris as it would depend on the individual strategy. My LTD was purposefully build to specifically have an edge on 2 goal leads so 1-0 > 2-0 was was common than 1-0 > 1-1 compared to a generic random 1-0 game. These days Id say that approach to LTD is vital otherwise the profit would be minimal greening on a 1 goal lead compared to the reds that would be incurred. 

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Callum
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April 21, 2020 - 5:14 pm
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Lord Dio said
It does smooth itself out. The only very rare occasion it doesn’t and where trading is superior is say when you have an edge on early goals so you might green up on O2.5 after 15 mins but not necessarily have an edge on O2.5 itself as a straight bet. I’d say thats pretty uncommon though.

People like to convince themselves that trading/hedging etc is smarter, sexier blah blah but ultimately it’s rarely any better IMO. Twitter will show you all opinions on it, from those who even think scratching the unders for a “free bet” is pointless. Let them think that. 

  

Thanks mate. That’s perfect.

I haven’t started looking for early goals or late goals so for all intents and purposes, the strategies I’m researching will even out over time. With that said, your caveat about finding an uncommon edge makes total sense.

Always learning...

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