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LTD bet and forget
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November 4, 2019 - 2:06 pm
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KingKenny 1972 said
Hi All

I traded the LTD beginners strategy for at least 3 years, as I see it you trade it exactly like Ians manual states.

The only choice you have is on 70 mins if its a draw do you stay in or trade out ?

This has been debated, Ian stays in as it is proven to work long term, but I decided to trade out for a loss as I did not want such swings.

Whatever happens I was generally out of game by at least 70-74 mins.

Both ways work, it is just your tolerance to risk.

 

regards

Steve

  

Hi Steve, thanks for this. Out of interest, do you still use the Beginners, as I personally am finding it one of my most profitable approaches this season (bet and forget), although we are only a few months in of course?

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November 4, 2019 - 4:28 pm
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Hi all bought the manual in August and I like it tbf… I do additional research on some games and have paper traded 40 games since August to how the manual advises and done a few with a low stakes to see how prices work. Strat is in profit which is nice to see.

Its definitely going to be part of my portfolio when I go live with my trading shortly. I have built a bank from matched betting and trading strats like this seems the next logical step. 

Thank you Ian for the strategy 😀

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November 4, 2019 - 6:35 pm
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Hi Steve 

I stopped using it last year as I wanted to concentrate on my ultimate bets. However I still believe it is a valid strategy, and something I might visit later on.

With a good mind set, you will find if you stick to a set of rules your bank can grow very rapidly.

Advice I can give, is to have a gameplan for each scenario that will occur 

eg what if theres a red card what will you do ?

What if the underdog scores first ?

What if the home team are leading by 2 will you trade out or leave it alone ?

Finally treat it like a process, dont think of the money it’s a process roll onto the next game, same process, keep it consistent and you will be fine.

Regards 

Steve 

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November 5, 2019 - 12:09 pm
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My 1st season using LTD and at the moment im currently 26pts after 3 months but still in the learning process, hindsight is a wonderful thing after the game has finished and you either pleased with the outcome or swearing like Ian, take for example Braga v Famalicao 03/11, Famalicao had an early red card in the 1st half which pushed the odds out on the draw so i felt was in a good position, then they took the lead 2mins into the 2nd half, which in turn draw odds shortened dramatically, but still felt confident and waited to see where the 2nd goal was coming from, and as it happens Braga equalised on the 76th minute and before the markets had settled and opened back up Braga took the lead on the 77th min,

My original game plan was to remove my liability to leave scratch on the draw and 0.75 pts on Braga but i felt confident as i had the home team winning and a red card in my favour with only 13mins to go, and yes the inevitable happened with Famalicao equalizing on the 89th min…to say i swore was an understatement but was i angry with the result or more so with myself, probably with myself for not sticking to my game plan and so it was another learning process.

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November 6, 2019 - 11:03 pm
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I myself made the experience that I am personally not so successful with systems that requier trading out. So using Ians “LTD Beginner” selections as set and forget might be fine for me. As I understand it should also work longterm, but with bigger swings. Kind of like staying in at score draws. But simply staying in all the time … 100% profit or the full liabs loss each trade. I will give it a try.

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November 8, 2019 - 6:10 pm
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Hi!

There is main and shortlist selections.Are you use both?

Good luck!

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November 9, 2019 - 2:03 pm
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Hi Jurber, that’s one question I wonder also. Are the Shortlist selections also profitabel as “Set and Forget”? Ian says, they are borderline either because of the prize or the range (over 5.0). When a higher price still is value, they should be profitable, even so you must accept larger downswings when such a high prize bet gets lost. But when a prize is borderline, because the price is not really much value anymore it can become tricky. In other words, I am sure the Shortlist Selections with a bit to high prices will be profitable, but I am not sure about the other ones. 

About your question: At the moment I only use the “Main Selections” and don’t trade but “set and forget”!

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November 11, 2019 - 4:55 am
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Hey guys,

I know this was already asked here but no one seemed to answer so I’ll ask again.

Anyone has the database from the Beginner selections, both Main and Shortlist that is willing to share?

I’m a Ultimate member, but just joined this year so I’m only building the database since my start, I know very well that they have been very successfull over the time, but I would like to study it a bit more, especially the drawdowns.

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November 13, 2019 - 5:04 pm
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Hi guys

I have been betting the LTD bets since September. Bet and forget. I have had 51 bets with 7 losers. Showing a decent profit. I treat the bets on both sides the same and stake to the same level.

What I have done when bet placing is to place my stakes at a couple of ticks shorter and been matched.

Hope this helps

Stephen (neophyte) 

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November 20, 2019 - 5:48 pm
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srjota6 said
Hey guys,

I know this was already asked here but no one seemed to answer so I’ll ask again.

Anyone has the database from the Beginner selections, both Main and Shortlist that is willing to share?

I’m a Ultimate member, but just joined this year so I’m only building the database since my start, I know very well that they have been very successfull over the time, but I would like to study it a bit more, especially the drawdowns.

  

So I think the issue with sharing long term LTD results is Ian wants you to record your own results, because if you rely on someone else’s you will just fall back on the comfort knowing someone else will have a copy.

I have done LTD for last few years, and as said already, trading out or set and forget is totally up to personal tolerance. I set and forget and don’t trade out. I can say that last year was my worst LTD year, I got absolutely smashed up, there was one weekend where I had 4/5 losers, 3 of which conceded in 90+. It was not fun, and for the weaker minded amongst you, you’d have been doing your nuts and freaking out about being 40points down on what was previously a solid 50 pt bank system. I considered switching to trading selections but I knew if I did I would probably have taken all of the brutal negative variance and then subsequently cutting off the future positive variance. Needless to say it then went on to 15 straight winners, and only 1 loser out of 25, this was from August 19 to October 19. Since the main leagues have started up again there’s been more variance with volume of games increasing. So you have to be aware of your own mindset, how will you cope with having 4 or 5 losers in one weekend and losing 20 points? It hadn’t happened to me before and so you don’t expect it, which has a different effect on your mindset.

One thing after discussing with Ian, is that if you do trade any of the selections it is the shortlist selections which are definitely more suited, but it was his previous advice, as others pointed out, that it could be profitable by set and forget. So it is personal preference, you could for example set and forget the main selections and trade the shortlist. Unfortunately no-one can give definitive answers because irrespective of results, it is individual mindset. Using my example, you have to expect the unexpected, so it doesn’t matter if historical results show something stable which indicates a set and forget approach, only for it to have a wild downward swing and you wish you traded.

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November 21, 2019 - 6:56 am
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bathdata said

srjota6 said

Hey guys,

I know this was already asked here but no one seemed to answer so I’ll ask again.

Anyone has the database from the Beginner selections, both Main and Shortlist that is willing to share?

I’m a Ultimate member, but just joined this year so I’m only building the database since my start, I know very well that they have been very successfull over the time, but I would like to study it a bit more, especially the drawdowns.

  

So I think the issue with sharing long term LTD results is Ian wants you to record your own results, because if you rely on someone else’s you will just fall back on the comfort knowing someone else will have a copy.

I have done LTD for last few years, and as said already, trading out or set and forget is totally up to personal tolerance. I set and forget and don’t trade out. I can say that last year was my worst LTD year, I got absolutely smashed up, there was one weekend where I had 4/5 losers, 3 of which conceded in 90+. It was not fun, and for the weaker minded amongst you, you’d have been doing your nuts and freaking out about being 40points down on what was previously a solid 50 pt bank system. I considered switching to trading selections but I knew if I did I would probably have taken all of the brutal negative variance and then subsequently cutting off the future positive variance. Needless to say it then went on to 15 straight winners, and only 1 loser out of 25, this was from August 19 to October 19. Since the main leagues have started up again there’s been more variance with volume of games increasing. So you have to be aware of your own mindset, how will you cope with having 4 or 5 losers in one weekend and losing 20 points? It hadn’t happened to me before and so you don’t expect it, which has a different effect on your mindset.

One thing after discussing with Ian, is that if you do trade any of the selections it is the shortlist selections which are definitely more suited, but it was his previous advice, as others pointed out, that it could be profitable by set and forget. So it is personal preference, you could for example set and forget the main selections and trade the shortlist. Unfortunately no-one can give definitive answers because irrespective of results, it is individual mindset. Using my example, you have to expect the unexpected, so it doesn’t matter if historical results show something stable which indicates a set and forget approach, only for it to have a wild downward swing and you wish you traded.

  

I get your point, and I’ve been collecting the data since I signed up, but there are other useful things to do with the database other than just see if it was profitable or not. 

We can see the average or maximum drawdown, doesn’t mean it will be the same or higher/lower, but can give you an idea about the bank and stake that can eventually be used (I know it is not a guarantee that it will happen again, but we can look for patterns and devise a strategy based on them, that may or may not work), we can check other things like goals, how many times the favorite/underdog won, Ht/Ft market. 

As an example, so far this season, laying the FT draw for the second half when it was 0-0 at HT has been very profitable, is this a common thing since it started?? It’s something that I’m curious about. 

I like to study every strategy and search for other possibilities with the same selections, that’s why the ultimate databases are awesome and can make you enjoy hours and hours of research trying to find another edge for our portfolio, and it is why I would like to do it with the LTD Beginner as well! 

But if no one has it or doesn’t want to share, I understand that, and I’ll keep doing it while collecting the data myself from the time I’ve joined. Takes longer but it is also part of the process. 

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November 21, 2019 - 11:55 am
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Hi … i would be interested in long term results of the LTD  strategy as well if they are available ?   thanks

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