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Big Juventus Disaster today
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December 1, 2019 - 1:46 pm
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Was a big disaster today for me on this juve game , double stake bet lay the draw 21k loss . Juventus win this game every single yr at home but messed up today. Under Allegri they won this game 7-0. Really unbelievable tbh, they went off 1.2 before KO. 

Lousy manager in charge though Sarri, only good really for smoking crack on the sidelines.

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/tgo1…..9.jpg?dl=0

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December 1, 2019 - 2:03 pm
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What a sickener.   They stung me as well but thankfully not to that tune.   We have to let other people win sometimes otherwise they’ll all give up betting and take up golf instead. 

Oh well, roll with the punches and come back swinging Smile

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December 1, 2019 - 3:02 pm
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Ouch! That puts my loss into perspective… 

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December 1, 2019 - 3:15 pm
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Had 15 LTD bets so far this weekend…….13/15 have won, the two losers……Juve @ 7.2 and Man City yesterday @ 8.8 – the two “bankers” of the weekend.Yell so after all those winners, still just over 1.5 points down.  Typical ain’t it – onwards we go.

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December 1, 2019 - 4:59 pm
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Similar story as well, yesterday I ended up losing 1k , but if man city had seen out the 2-1 would have been a profit yesterday of 11k. That’s the difference one result can have and then big disaster today. When you are betting for a living is more problematic, you can’t afford to many big losses.

A shambolic season this season for me, just have to keep following the processes and stay disciplined and strong and then assess again in the summer. Even though lay the draw works very well with a minimal drawdown compared to other methods of betting may decide next season to still carry on with my main laying the draw method but move fair bit of funds into other areas I have found like my own method for laying ht scores, under 1.5 lays, etc. To live slightly less dangerously in future.

At times can be living very dangerously, I don’t have any wife myself. But imagine carrying on this type of betting with a wife and kids. Just de-stabilise the relationship, this is the reason why many gamblers who take big risks find it difficult forming long term relationships. The way of life can be very alien as well. When you tie your whole identity to one thing, when that thing is not going so well can be very tough.

Was a period a while back where I suffered from severe depression but I got through it and came out the other side and was feeling very good. By controlling your emotional reactions to negative events and trying to stay in positive moods is very helpful. There have been many stories of entrepreneurs who have ended up taking their lives, they tied their whole identity to their businesses. Was a married man with kids who had made millions from his business and then it all went south and he took his own life. Is very sad stories like this, usually these type of rash decisions are made and people act on them instantaneously. Generally people who take big risks tend to make decisions quickly without any fear of consequences. You have to literally risk your life though to win, it takes very big sacrifices.

This is why is good to read books- law of attraction, etc. Moving up the emotional scale is important as well when an event crops up that triggers negative emotions. Have to minimise the emotional refractory period after the event and shift slowly into better emotions. Dan Pena as well the man who has made many billions, talks about how your “emotional bank account” is far more important than your personal bank account, in that you have to be very strong emotionally to deal with all the ups and downs that come along with taking big risks. He himself went bankrupt many times but always came back to win again. 

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December 1, 2019 - 5:13 pm
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December 1, 2019 - 6:59 pm
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Gurds, this might be an intrusive question so tell me to mind my own business, but your bankroll is surely borrowed money? If my memory is correct based on Ians timeline of you joining etc, surely you haven’t amassed £200k+ in a bank from scratch so quickly?

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December 1, 2019 - 7:19 pm
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hi guys, since that juventus cock up earlier i have won about 5k or so back. Hopefully a long great run will come soon , we will see. I am a special man in my opinion, heart of a lion.

 

Was one min away from losing 12k on the standard liege game in belgium but standard scored the winner in the last min. Great bet that one, 1.3 odds to win at home vs the worst team in belgium top flight.

Should have been around 1.17-1.18 to win that game standard.    https://www.dropbox.com/s/ltjo…..9.jpg?dl=0

 

Napoli game this time VAR saved me for once and disallowed the napoli last min equaliser. I layed draw and backed home there so no loss that game scratch.

In league football the most reliable teams in the world at home in my opinion are benfica and porto, they smack these pub sides up willy nilly at home week in week out. If someone has a gun to your head and asked told you to pick a league team to win at home in the league at odds of less than 1.5 and if they didnt win they would pull the trigger you would be safest picking benfica or porto

I don’t want to jinx porto as I will be involved tomorrow, hopefully they will come away with all 3 pts

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December 1, 2019 - 7:36 pm
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Stung by both Juventus and Napoli myself today. Ouch.

Always learning...

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December 1, 2019 - 8:13 pm
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Just have to take it on the chin, you obviously have an adequate bank to withstand these losses… still plenty of time for the home shorties to turn it around

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December 1, 2019 - 8:31 pm
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Carlo Ancelotti will prob be sacked soon now, he’s been shocking

It’s got so bad at napoli that some of the napoli hardcore fans have been invading family homes or damaging property and cars of some of the players.

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December 1, 2019 - 8:37 pm
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People are at all different levels, monetary figures are absolutely irrelevant, but IF you are set up properly then one team drawing a game of football cannot be a “disaster”, simple as that whether it’s double stake, triple stake or whatever. It’s important to clarify this, as anyone who is new to this game will be fighting their own mindset battles and will naturally look up to someone staking 5 figures as professional, whether that is the case or not and then their own self doubt begins to creep in. There is also absolutely no context to it unless we are discussing bank points or percentages. The “K’s” mean nothing to anyone. 

Apologies if that sounds abrupt but the thread is at risk of descending into chaos talking about one match disasters, suicide and risking your life to win. It’s betting on football.  

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December 1, 2019 - 9:22 pm
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danny2 said
People are at all different levels…There is also absolutely no context to it unless we are discussing bank points or percentages. The “K’s” mean nothing to anyone.

  

I lost on Man City, Juve and Arsenal this weekend and they’re sickeners, but all in, I’ll probably finish the weekend around 10 points down, out of a 200 point bank. 

I’ve ran my systems historically and these runs crop up, it’s just difficult when you’re actually going through them.

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December 1, 2019 - 9:41 pm
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danny2 said
People are at all different levels, monetary figures are absolutely irrelevant, but IF you are set up properly then one team drawing a game of football cannot be a “disaster”, simple as that whether it’s double stake, triple stake or whatever. It’s important to clarify this, as anyone who is new to this game will be fighting their own mindset battles and will naturally look up to someone staking 5 figures as professional, whether that is the case or not and then their own self doubt begins to creep in. There is also absolutely no context to it unless we are discussing bank points or percentages. The “K’s” mean nothing to anyone. 

Apologies if that sounds abrupt but the thread is at risk of descending into chaos talking about one match disasters, suicide and risking your life to win. It’s betting on football.  

  

couldnt agree more ……

Punting like this has to be controlled and its doesnt matter if you have the best systems in the world, it isnt down to that it is down to staking and bank management …..

Personally I cant move from a 100 point bank and stake 1 point on each outcome, mainly becuase I know across my systems most I will go behind in a sequence is about 20 points and also i couldnt handle losing a high percentage of my bank but everyone is different but for me gurds you are playing a very dangerous game in terms of risk to reward but thats just my opinion and I dont mean any offence by what I say

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December 1, 2019 - 9:46 pm
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however I will say this :

off database prices not actual prices

SYSTEM NOMAIN LEAGUE 1
LEAGUESAll Expect Germany
MTHSNot May or June
HOME TEAMS
AWAY TEAMS
HOME ODDSBetween 1.1 & 1.5
DRAW ODDS< Then 7
AWAY ODDS
HOME DIFFERENCE> Then 2
DRAW DIFFERENCE
AWAY DIFFERENCE
HF PTS / COLOUR> Then 0.5
AF PTS / COLOURAll Execpt Grey
BETFAIR BOOK %
SELECTION 1Back Home Team
SELECTION 2Lay The Draw
SELECTION 3
   
SEASON POINTSGAMES
2012 – 2013 28.5034
2013 – 2014 34.1036
2014 – 2015 33.0549
2015 – 2016 22.5741
2016 – 2017 15.1828
2017 – 2018 19.9125
2018 – 2019 30.8442
2019 – 2020 -8.0425
    
  176.11280

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December 1, 2019 - 10:15 pm
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LTD struggled in 15/16 and funnily enough that was when Leicester won the league and here they are again flying high whilst Utd, Arsenal, Spurs and to some extent City, all find themselves performing below expectation. And that’s just in England. Bayern are struggling, Napoli and Juve are struggling, Real and Barca are struggling. Ignore league position, some of these clubs are really unsettled right now. It’s seasons like this where if your system breaks even or even takes a small loss, you have to let the cycle play out and keep batting on as Ian says. The markets will react and your liabilities will become smaller or the usual suspects will start to fall outside your odds ranges and not return until they turn it around. Anyone who survives a season like this without giving up and comes out punching the other side will have taken a major step in their own development as a punter. 

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December 2, 2019 - 12:46 am
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danny2 said
LTD struggled in 15/16 and funnily enough that was when Leicester won the league and here they are again flying high whilst Utd, Arsenal, Spurs and to some extent City, all find themselves performing below expectation. And that’s just in England. Bayern are struggling, Napoli and Juve are struggling, Real and Barca are struggling. Ignore league position, some of these clubs are really unsettled right now. It’s seasons like this where if your system breaks even or even takes a small loss, you have to let the cycle play out and keep batting on as Ian says. The markets will react and your liabilities will become smaller or the usual suspects will start to fall outside your odds ranges and not return until they turn it around. Anyone who survives a season like this without giving up and comes out punching the other side will have taken a major step in their own development as a punter. 

  

Very well said Danny – this season I have to take really unexpected big hits. Most of us will be hit in one way or the other with this Juve draw for example (and other strange draws that happend) – but I feel more confident then ever this season, as I really experience how strong my discipline and mindset has become!

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December 2, 2019 - 1:06 pm
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leewillo75 said
however I will say this :

off database prices not actual prices

SYSTEM NOMAIN LEAGUE 1
LEAGUESAll Expect Germany
MTHSNot May or June
HOME TEAMS
AWAY TEAMS
HOME ODDSBetween 1.1 & 1.5
DRAW ODDS< Then 7
AWAY ODDS
HOME DIFFERENCE> Then 2
DRAW DIFFERENCE
AWAY DIFFERENCE
HF PTS / COLOUR> Then 0.5
AF PTS / COLOURAll Execpt Grey
BETFAIR BOOK %
SELECTION 1Back Home Team
SELECTION 2Lay The Draw
SELECTION 3
   
SEASON POINTSGAMES
2012 – 2013 28.5034
2013 – 2014 34.1036
2014 – 2015 33.0549
2015 – 2016 22.5741
2016 – 2017 15.1828
2017 – 2018 19.9125
2018 – 2019 30.8442
2019 – 2020 -8.0425
    
  176.11280

  

HI Lee, you ever tempted to ass the lay the away also as that makes for a interesting ROI

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December 3, 2019 - 1:04 pm
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ikeee64 said

leewillo75 said

however I will say this :

off database prices not actual prices

SYSTEM NOMAIN LEAGUE 1
LEAGUESAll Expect Germany
MTHSNot May or June
HOME TEAMS
AWAY TEAMS
HOME ODDSBetween 1.1 & 1.5
DRAW ODDS< Then 7
AWAY ODDS
HOME DIFFERENCE> Then 2
DRAW DIFFERENCE
AWAY DIFFERENCE
HF PTS / COLOUR> Then 0.5
AF PTS / COLOURAll Execpt Grey
BETFAIR BOOK %
SELECTION 1Back Home Team
SELECTION 2Lay The Draw
SELECTION 3
   
SEASON POINTSGAMES
2012 – 2013 28.5034
2013 – 2014 34.1036
2014 – 2015 33.0549
2015 – 2016 22.5741
2016 – 2017 15.1828
2017 – 2018 19.9125
2018 – 2019 30.8442
2019 – 2020 -8.0425
    
  176.11280

  

HI Lee, you ever tempted to ass the lay the away also as that makes for a interesting ROI

  

not for me mate …. prices too big. I dont like laying anything over 7 to 8. I most certainly cant lay at 15s etc …. just mentally doesnt sit well with me

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December 3, 2019 - 1:50 pm
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Well done on recognising where you mental and emotional limits are. I’m to lay high odds if I know that I have a solid system to back them up.

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