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FTS Ultimate Systems and Covid-19
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thomsch
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June 2, 2020 - 2:39 pm
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I’m just curious to know what everyone’s plans are for their Ultimate systems going forward now that more leagues are starting back.  Are you continuing as normal, reducing your stakes or maybe giving up altogether until next season when, hopefully, crowds are allowed back? 

Personally, I don’t know what to do!  I have maintained my discipline since starting ultimate and have had some tough times but came through them and I’m proud of myself for not giving up.  I did vow at the start of the season to never give up but never could have imagined the situation we’re in now.  

My bets are on for now, but I’ve had a rough few weeks and starting to lose my nerve a bit due to the uncertainty.

 

Confused

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moonmonkey
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June 2, 2020 - 6:52 pm
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This is my first year and I personally have decided to draw a line under the season .The 4 systems I’m using are showing a profit and as the finish to this season is unique I will just keep an eye on the selections that pop up and keep my powder dry for next season.

I’m not using huge stakes but as I’m not 100% confident and that’s really important for my mindset especially when the stakes increase,it’s wisest for me to stay out.  

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thomsch
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becker
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June 3, 2020 - 8:18 am
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I’m continuing where I left off, but I will not bet on any games played on a neutral venue.

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thomsch
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starlord
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June 3, 2020 - 12:14 pm
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Im just reducing my stakes down to fun bets, didn’t have a great season as my away lays let me down massively so its kind of a right of anyway

I also doubt that they will have full stadiums whenever the new seasons start so it will be interesting to see how my current systems hold up over the remaining games

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thomsch
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ikeee64
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June 3, 2020 - 1:03 pm
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I’m just going to see how it goes, no rush 

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thomsch
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hibee07
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June 3, 2020 - 9:14 pm
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Im also continuing with Ultimate.

My view is that Ultimate is all based on odds and odd chance. So I feel that no crowds etc will be represented in the odds.

Take for example when Spurs or Man Utd were poor and caused losses at start of season. The odds then represented there chances and they fell out of systems.

However the one thing I have struggled with is some systems I had no bets in May. Ive looked back and this was really last 3/4 games of the season. So had to adjust systems to just stop 3/4 games before end of season

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thomsch
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June 3, 2020 - 11:34 pm
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becker said
I’m continuing where I left off, but I will not bet on any games played on a neutral venue.

hibee07 said
Im also continuing with Ultimate.

For the same size stakes @becker , @hibee007

hibee07 said
 

My view is that Ultimate is all based on odds and odd chance. So I feel that no crowds etc will be represented in the odds.

Take for example when Spurs or Man Utd were poor and caused losses at start of season. The odds then represented there chances and they fell out of systems.

Definitely, but will obviously take a while to be reflected in the odds and for each and every league/team starting up.  Could be a tough restart whilst leagues, teams, odds settle.  

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becker
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June 4, 2020 - 6:14 am
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thomsch said

becker said

I’m continuing where I left off, but I will not bet on any games played on a neutral venue.

hibee07 said

Im also continuing with Ultimate.

For the same size stakes @becker , @hibee007

hibee07 said

 

My view is that Ultimate is all based on odds and odd chance. So I feel that no crowds etc will be represented in the odds.

Take for example when Spurs or Man Utd were poor and caused losses at start of season. The odds then represented there chances and they fell out of systems.

Definitely, but will obviously take a while to be reflected in the odds and for each and every league/team starting up.  Could be a tough restart whilst leagues, teams, odds settle.  

  

I will continue with same stakes. To be clear I’m taking about FTS Ultimate systems. I do my own in-play betting too, but I will not bet in-play anymore this season.

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thomsch
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mrwhitney
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June 6, 2020 - 2:24 pm
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i’ve cut my stakes right down and increased my points instead. I got carried away in the first few months after joining and was adding too many new systems to my 200 point bank. I’m not sure whether they would have come good at the end of the season or not, but I was taking losses that made me uncomfortable. The new structure gives me more space to see systems play out and I should be able to start increasing stakes again soon, but from a properly funded 600 point bank (split into three 200 point banks). I’m going to keep HTCS at the old stakes though because its a pretty safe system. 

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KingKenny 1972
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June 7, 2020 - 11:43 am
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The way I view the system are the current dynamics have completely changed.

My first thought is to play good defence, protect my bank at all costs.

By getting involved at regular stakes I may undue all the current good work so far.

All my current Ultimate systems are paused apart from HC CS Lays.

I do feel eager to get involved but me personally I am treating the season as dead.

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Steve
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June 7, 2020 - 1:16 pm
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KingKenny 1972 said
The way I view the system are the current dynamics have completely changed.

My first thought is to play good defence, protect my bank at all costs.

By getting involved at regular stakes I may undue all the current good work so far.

All my current Ultimate systems are paused apart from HC CS Lays.

I do feel eager to get involved but me personally I am treating the season as dead.

  

Agree 100%. Concerned that if I stake as per the current season on my Ultimate systems, I may do some unnecessary damage to the bank. For me personally, unless I can bet / trade with confidence, then I probably should avoid it totally, which is what I am now doing. 

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Lord Dio
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June 7, 2020 - 9:44 pm
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I am not seeing much difference in my results at all tbh, for bets based on goals and match odds. Germany especially seems to have settled down. 

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becker
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June 8, 2020 - 9:16 am
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Lord Dio said
I am not seeing much difference in my results at all tbh, for bets based on goals and match odds. Germany especially seems to have settled down. 

  

I’ve had six bets on my FTS Ultimate systems (all lay away teams). Three wins, three losses which is -2.25 points, but I really can’t say that there has been a change or not been a change. I will just put on bets as I normally would and in my mind there is so little left of the season, that even when it finally ends I won’t be able to say if the new situation has changed things or not.

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simonmuir62
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June 10, 2020 - 10:53 am
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I am just continuing to review as each week goes by.  For example I have continued to back the Bundesliga 2 draw system as i think draws are maybe even more likely if there is less home advantage, and if no impact then i’m fine anyway.  I’ve avoided anything with home wins and big liability LTD’s at the moment until i’m more comfortable with the impact this is having, or until we see a significant shift in the odds.  Protecting the bank key to me.  All personal preference of course.

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jb8426
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June 27, 2020 - 7:12 am
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i think something has changed.But im no expert analyst. Just causally looking at the Main Ultimate database 26 June now 180 odd games since lockdown, back draw blind is in profit+16pts  home wins loss -40pts.

Now if look Feb and March 2020 pre lockdown 207 games broadley same number games, home win +7 pts up and back draw -13.

 

Also looking now at Poisson sheet after lockdown upto 25th June just blind back every game draw is +18pts from 161 bets and under 2.5 goals back is +24pts.  That looks unusual. Feb/March on the Poisson sheet 420bets  draw back is -14pts, and the u2.5 back -6pts.

Seems in this opening startup under2.5 is profitable and backing draw. Teams might adapt to the the lack of fans over a few months, and /or odds adjust  to bring them more back to parity. But way i see at moment market has swung to draw back and back u2.5 biasis for opening early exchanges. Will be interesting to hear Ian on the Podcast about this

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mrwhitney
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June 27, 2020 - 5:58 pm
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i’m having a nice run at the moment… touch wood… and I’m happy I changed my staking system as I was overstaking before lockdown with too many systems. Now I’ve got a cooler head and am going to build slowly and steadily instead of barrelling in.

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srjota6
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June 29, 2020 - 4:16 pm
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I stopped betting in all of my systems as I preferred to be more defensive in this unknown time, protecting the bank and the profit done until the stop, but kept track of everything and did all of the processes and so far it has been good!

As it was mentioned before, this situation affected a lot of areas, and the odds were also affected by it so some games are now out of the criteria, just as well as others are now in, and that should balance itself.

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