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Mid-Season System Changes
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GH Trader
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December 14, 2020 - 10:02 am
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I have system in the alternate leagues that generates a lot of bets every week (15-20 a weekend over 3 leagues) and I was fiddling about with it recently, and came across a slight amendment that returns almost the same amount of profit (30pts less over 4 and a bit seasons) but through much less fixtures.

I mean MUCH LESS as in the original system was 185pts off 2788 bets and the amended system is 154pts off 943 bets over the same period. The amended system is also slightly more consistent in the numbers it returns each season.

This amended system feels like a more secure option…..the question is would you make these amendments part way through a season or stick with what you’ve got?

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ikeee64
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December 14, 2020 - 11:19 am
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How far back was both methods back tested ?, obviously to reduce that amount of bets for only a small loss in profits is where im going to go, just as long as the results of the testing was fine

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December 14, 2020 - 11:40 am
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Both systems go all the way back to the start of the ALT Leagues data, so start of the 16/17 season

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ikeee64
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December 14, 2020 - 1:29 pm
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all the checking you can do, so im with you less is more and this is what the new powerbuilder will find and to be able to remove 2/3 for just 30 points is a massive win

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jamiep
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December 14, 2020 - 7:48 pm
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Yes mate I would, less is more and all that. When I first started two seasons ago I was averaging 20-25 bets per weekend now I’m having half of that and feel a lot better.

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GH Trader
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January 4, 2021 - 2:18 pm
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Ok, thanks for help with this guys. Next question……

Looking at my alternate systems, there’s three leagues in each system.

In system one, the leagues are tracking as follows:

Championship + 9pts

Netherlands – 3.9pts

Portugal -3.9pts

Total +1.2pts

 

and System 2:

Turkey +12.46pts

Germany -8pts

France – 25pts

Total -21pts

 

Would you consider removing the underperforming leagues or would you persist and continue on with what you’d started with? France seems like the obvious choice to take out?

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Neil
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January 4, 2021 - 2:39 pm
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GH Trader said
Ok, thanks for help with this guys. Next question……

Looking at my alternate systems, there’s three leagues in each system.

In system one, the leagues are tracking as follows:

Championship + 9pts

Netherlands – 3.9pts

Portugal -3.9pts

Total +1.2pts

 

and System 2:

Turkey +12.46pts

Germany -8pts

France – 25pts

Total -21pts

 

Would you consider removing the underperforming leagues or would you persist and continue on with what you’d started with? France seems like the obvious choice to take out?

  

Personally I would leave them as they are, France is defiantly under performing at the moment but again they are yet half way through the season, I have a LTD and a Lay Away system in France and the Lay Away is performing badly at the moment but I am going to ride it out until the end of the season, its all down to personal choice at the end of the day

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Lord Dio, GH Trader
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January 4, 2021 - 3:33 pm
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If you remove the losing leagues and only keep the winning leagues, you’ll only be left with winning bets. It’ll never be that easy. Your cumulative results show you how your system/strategy is working, rarely can you cherry pick and choose successfully unless they’ve never been a performing league for you?

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Neil, GH Trader
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January 4, 2021 - 3:49 pm
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Thanks guys…..I think I may have known the answer to my own question already 🤣 just wanted to make sure. 

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