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Topic Rating: +29 Topic Rating: +29 (33 votes) 
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Goals,Thrills and Headaches
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carlos73
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November 21, 2020 - 12:32 pm
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Hi everyone

As we approach a long run for the football, there is no doubt that members, especially those that have signed up this year, may have a wobble second guessing their mindset and systems. So if members want to air their frustrations/doubts here they may do so, with a multitude of members here with varying degrees of membership status can relay advice and maybe some calming words of wisdom. 

Also you can share your elations from that last minute goal or a non loss bout of fixtures.

Sharing is good and its good to share.

Use this thread if you want to and good luck to you all over the next 3 odd months of football.

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nick_ja
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November 21, 2020 - 6:47 pm
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Hey Carlos

I was questioning my mindset AND the universe today. All my systems seemed to be taking a proper battering and I started thinking maybe the Universe is trying to tell me something. It picked up and I ended up actually in the positive for the day. My mindset is getting better. I get more annoyed now whereas previously I would start to feel really down. I do a lot of Poisson laying the correct score, and the midlands derby last night stung me as I layed the 0-0. Rather than feel depressed as I would have done at the start, it just annoyed me and all I could think of is that I hoped both teams get relegated as they were awful. Eventually, I will be numb to it all but at the moment, each loss is getting easier to deal with. I know it is a long game, just sometimes frustrating as all my early profits have been  given back.

Good call on the thread mate.

Nick

COYB!

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carlos73
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November 22, 2020 - 10:46 am
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Hey Nick,

Least someone was willing to share lol, letting go of any form of emotion is crucial in this, it has a nasty habit of influencing wrong decisions which at the time you would think are the right ones. Its the one thing i have strictly adhered to this season, not one wobble yet even though my bank increase has now plateaued.

Another note, nothing wrong with the blues getting relegated lol

"Truth is like poetry, & most people f***ing hate poetry."

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November 22, 2020 - 11:47 am
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For me the main highlight on Saturday was Chelsea win. Risked 12k to win 3k or so that game. Similar type of bet to west ham vs man city but this time the right outcome away win. Other highlight Saturday was a leverkusen late winner in 88th min vs the worst team in bundesliga, 6k or so liability to win 1k that game.

Negative on sat was smaller bet spezia vs atalanta lay the draw which ended 0-0, atalanta had goal disallowed VAR. Was a decent win overall Sat. You win and lose but obviously the aim is to win a lot in the end after all the bets over months.

I think the best way to deal with any negative situations is to just have high levels of self love and self confidence. Gamblers generally are stigmatised in society, even if you know what it feels like to win 15k in 2 days gambling you don’t really get respect from wider society at all. Lots of negativity is directed at you and people want you to fail, so self love and self confidence is even more important to block everything out. When you go down the road less travelled as well maybe it can make you more narcissistic than if you went down a normal road. As it is an unknown path with lots of pain and you have to take lots of risks, but there are special moments that people who go down normal roads never get to experience. You become a much better person as well creating things from the unknown, the road less travelled.

Narcissim is a good trait as long as it is under control for doing special things in my view. Ronaldo and Ibrahimovic good examples of this, you have to believe in yourself even when no one else believes in you. They both work hard but they have tremendous love for themselves and don’t let the opinions others have about them affect them. Eddie Hall is another example of someone with high levels of narcissim and he has done very special things, the most incredible feat in human history deadlifting 500kg at at time when everyone thought it was impossible and threw lots of negativity at him. He has massive levels of self love, self confidence, is fearless and disciplined. 

All the best, never give up and believe in yourself even if other people don’t believe in you!

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jamiep
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November 22, 2020 - 3:34 pm
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Thanks for sharing Carlos,

I’m struggling and have been for the past 3 months, I just can’t seem to find any consistency at all. Just waiting for a good run to kick so I can kick on.

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carlos73
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November 22, 2020 - 3:45 pm
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jamiep said
Thanks for sharing Carlos,

I’m struggling and have been for the past 3 months, I just can’t seem to find any consistency at all. Just waiting for a good run to kick so I can kick on.

  

In what way are you struggling exactly, is it your systems you are using or is it the mindset? tbh they can have an effect on each other, however were going into a long undisturbed period of matches and statistically, if your confidence lies within the systems, then it will turn around. Ian states this many times, the goal is not to give in cos you see successes elsewhere. Stay in the game, the reward will be great for your mindset especially if you persevere with it.

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jamiep
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November 22, 2020 - 3:54 pm
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carlos73 said

jamiep said

Thanks for sharing Carlos,

I’m struggling and have been for the past 3 months, I just can’t seem to find any consistency at all. Just waiting for a good run to kick so I can kick on.

  

In what way are you struggling exactly, is it your systems you are using or is it the mindset? tbh they can have an effect on each other, however were going into a long undisturbed period of matches and statistically, if your confidence lies within the systems, then it will turn around. Ian states this many times, the goal is not to give in cos you see successes elsewhere. Stay in the game, the reward will be great for your mindset especially if you persevere with it.

  

Probably abit of both but more to do with my systems I would say. Hopefully things turn around soon.

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garyt
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November 22, 2020 - 5:07 pm
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i have had a bad 3 months as well happy with my systems will just have to ride thru it not made a profit this season yet but most of my losses have come from the championship

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November 23, 2020 - 3:42 pm
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Hi Guys

I think this thread is a really good idea Carlos. Good to be able to share problems and get the insight of those who are more experienced. This is my first season on FTS Ultimate and had my first real mindset test over the last few weeks. In my portfolio of systems I operate 3 banks, 1 for main league systems, 1 for alternate league systems and 1 for HTCS lays.

I started the season like a train, all 3 sets firing. Then my alternate league systems seemingly fell apart. I lost 45.22 points over 120 games which really gave my confidence a dent. I can totally relate to Ian’s podcasts as seemingly everything went against me with last minute goals hitting me time and time again. Fortunately, I think the international break came at the right time as it gave me time to settle myself down. I have used the time to sign up to VPS and Bet Angel trial and have automated my selections this weekend (big thanks to Nicholas Drury on twitter who helped me). I have also resolved to continue with my systems until Christmas to give them plenty of time to run before I have a look at them and consider any tweaks. Also, by using automation I am aiming to be able to just set the bets up on Friday and forget about them until Monday. I’m certainly not there yet (partially because I was checking every game to make sure the bets were being placed as I was expecting with being new to automation) but I think this will take away some of the peaks in my blood pressure over the weekend.

When I set my systems up I collated the results from the combination of systems I am using for the last 4 years and the biggest downturn on the alternate league systems was around 25 points from a sample of nearly 2,300 qualifying matches, so this has really come as a bit of a nerve jangler. Fortunately, I set myself up with 100 point bank and as I said, I got the season off to a good start so part of what I lost was profit which I think has helped my mindset. Not sure whether there is an issue with COVID or not, I’ve done some analysis on the leagues I’ve had losers in and doesn’t seem to be any huge swings in the results from previous seasons (mainly focused on Turkey as that is where I took a real pasting). I’ve now pulled back 10.97 points so hopefully the worst is over with and am pleased that I’ve got to now without throwing in the towel or trying to change things that I had decided on.

Cheers

Paul

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November 23, 2020 - 4:31 pm
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yardi2k said
Hi Guys

I think this thread is a really good idea Carlos. Good to be able to share problems and get the insight of those who are more experienced. This is my first season on FTS Ultimate and had my first real mindset test over the last few weeks. In my portfolio of systems I operate 3 banks, 1 for main league systems, 1 for alternate league systems and 1 for HTCS lays.

I started the season like a train, all 3 sets firing. Then my alternate league systems seemingly fell apart. I lost 45.22 points over 120 games which really gave my confidence a dent. I can totally relate to Ian’s podcasts as seemingly everything went against me with last minute goals hitting me time and time again. Fortunately, I think the international break came at the right time as it gave me time to settle myself down. I have used the time to sign up to VPS and Bet Angel trial and have automated my selections this weekend (big thanks to Nicholas Drury on twitter who helped me). I have also resolved to continue with my systems until Christmas to give them plenty of time to run before I have a look at them and consider any tweaks. Also, by using automation I am aiming to be able to just set the bets up on Friday and forget about them until Monday. I’m certainly not there yet (partially because I was checking every game to make sure the bets were being placed as I was expecting with being new to automation) but I think this will take away some of the peaks in my blood pressure over the weekend.

When I set my systems up I collated the results from the combination of systems I am using for the last 4 years and the biggest downturn on the alternate league systems was around 25 points from a sample of nearly 2,300 qualifying matches, so this has really come as a bit of a nerve jangler. Fortunately, I set myself up with 100 point bank and as I said, I got the season off to a good start so part of what I lost was profit which I think has helped my mindset. Not sure whether there is an issue with COVID or not, I’ve done some analysis on the leagues I’ve had losers in and doesn’t seem to be any huge swings in the results from previous seasons (mainly focused on Turkey as that is where I took a real pasting). I’ve now pulled back 10.97 points so hopefully the worst is over with and am pleased that I’ve got to now without throwing in the towel or trying to change things that I had decided on.

Cheers

Paul

  

Hi Paul, 

In a strange way it’s nice to see someone else struggling even though I would prefer us all to be winning.

The thing with covid and no crowds is home advantage has gone I’m not saying the crowd is everything but it does help the home side’s win more, and with having away lay and Ltd systems it hasn’t helped making progress this season, obviously variance will of been a factor as well.

Hopefully with the news of supporters coming back and vaccines in sight it should feel abit more normal soon.

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mbtrader79
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November 23, 2020 - 5:05 pm
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Great thread idea

This is my first (full) Ultimate season so it’s very early doors. Before the break I was around 4 points down on the season which is nothing in the grand scheme of things but since the weekend I am now 18 points down overall. I know some people are having a worse time than me, but you can’t help questioning things after a bloodbath of a weekend. That said, overall I’m determined to stay positive and grind this out. 

One thing I have noticed (or maybe it’s only what I’ve personally seen) people seem to have more Lay systems than Back ones. I’ve got 8 macro’s, all Back systems to protect my bank as much as possible as I’ve started out with a relatively modest, but correct bank for my staking. I wondered if everyone else had that experience?

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sbcfc6
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November 23, 2020 - 5:58 pm
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thanks for the thread Carlos.

first year doing ultimate and the start has been a struggle.  as someone has mentioned I definitely have gone with to many lay systems.

i do the beginner lay the draws as straight lays and find myself over 20points down which is hard to handle for my first year but i  am not going to change or adjust any systems until i have given them at least 100 bets or bank goes.

the doubt has creeped in lately but i no i have to give all systems a fair chance with the bank i have assigned them 

does any one with experience have any advice on how best to asses a system against are results. how can we no when a system may just not work any more without losing a bank to find out ? if that makes sense.

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steve08
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November 25, 2020 - 11:19 am
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Hi All

My first post so go easy on me 

My Ultimate journey so far in my 1st year 

37 matches  +5.96 points up from 4 systems in 4 leagues

When i started i hated having the big liability especially when laying teams and struggled with the loss when it came, but now getting better and better with it as i know my systems will be profitable in the long run. When i lose now yeah its annoying but shrug it off with in the hour, as i dont say ive lost x amount of money on that game but x amount of points. I try to turn the money side of it into points then it is more bearable when the losses come. Just my way of thinking 

Had lots of ups and downs but mainly ups, had 3 or 4 last minute goals go for me but i know they will go against me further down the season 

Onwards and upwards look forward dont look behind. Good luck all 

Steve 

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November 25, 2020 - 1:02 pm
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This is my second year with ultimate. Last year things had a rocky start too and then took off like a rocket.

One of the problems with just starting out and taking things easy with only a few systems is that randomness can sting quite hard when things go against you. As you progress and get more systems in your portfolio, the ups and downs of each system smooth eachother out ( for the most part ) and it’s a nice upward curve over time. I added FTS Racing to my portfolio last year during the black friday sale ( ty Ian! ) and my systems from that have helped keep me in the green this season despite the football results being tough.

It’s a lot of hard work, but it is paying off. Keep at it, it’s well worth it.

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November 26, 2020 - 9:03 am
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Hi guys,

Great idea for a topic Carlos.

My first year on FTS, in fact it’s my first year using the exchange and actually taking my gambling seriously after years of mug punting.

I’ve actually had a roaring start to my systems and am currently around +29pts for the season across 5 systems (Technically 4 as 1 hasn’t produced a bet yet). I too struggled at the start with having the level of liability that some of the bets produce, even now some of the bigger ones make me do a double take and take a sharp in take of breath.

I’m not completely detached from following results, I have notifications turned on for final results for each game but have turned off goal notifications. In fact I’ve resorted to two score apps now. I have Sofascore to notify me of final results for FTS games and I use Flashscores for goal notifications of games I’m actually following (Usually just Cov games – my team).

I’ve already had extremes of very very bad weekends and very very good weekends so far and it’s really tough during those bad weekends to see the wrong results piling in. I think I focus too much on exactly what my balance is sometimes, and start looking at what games I have left to see if those games winning would make up the deficit from a loss.

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November 28, 2020 - 5:31 pm
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I’ve been taking a beating for the last few weeks and went from a healthy profit to a nasty drawdown, but having gone through last season I’m less concerned about it and know the worst thing would be to start chopping and changing systems. Today has been very good so far and I’ve clawed back almost half of the drawdown, it shows when things turn around it can happen fast.

Along with the podcast I’ve spent time watching videos from Mark Douglas, the trader and author. There’s one where he talks about probabilities that hit home for me, he said when you lose you aren’t a loser; this business requires expenses. The trades that don’t pay off are the price you pay for the trades that do, and there is no way of knowing which trades will pay off in advance. If you think you know, you’re fooling yourself.

I think that’s the best approach to Ultimate systems. Once the process is in place and you’re not crapping yourself over results every day you just have to keep grinding it out. I was hoping for instant success but learnt valuable lessons from adding too many extra systems and getting muddled in the first season. Now I’m just going to keep my head down and work on perfecting the process, without worrying so much about the day to day P&L.

ab_channel=EddieL

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November 28, 2020 - 5:50 pm
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this season is so tough …… I spent an awful lot of time during first lockdown drilling into numbers and reducing risk but this season is an up and down more times then a prossies knickers ….

Just cant seem to break the plus 20pts barrier and kick on and after today back into the red by 5 points. Late goals at newcastle and norwich costing me a few points profit 

But Ive been here before and will keep on grinding away

To be honest if I can reach a position where I am break even until the crowds come back in I will take it

But I will say this to anyone, if this gambling/trading lark was a breeze and easy everybody would be doing it and it isnt its a total head f**k sometimes but mentally it wont ever break me, its why you have a bankroll

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November 28, 2020 - 10:30 pm
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leewillo75 said
this season is so tough …… I spent an awful lot of time during first lockdown drilling into numbers and reducing risk but this season is an up and down more times then a prossies knickers ….

Just cant seem to break the plus 20pts barrier and kick on and after today back into the red by 5 points. Late goals at newcastle and norwich costing me a few points profit 

But Ive been here before and will keep on grinding away

To be honest if I can reach a position where I am break even until the crowds come back in I will take it

But I will say this to anyone, if this gambling/trading lark was a breeze and easy everybody would be doing it and it isnt its a total head f**k sometimes but mentally it wont ever break me, its why you have a bankroll

  

for sure is very difficult nowadays. I think it was a lot easier to win a lot of money during more normal times from football betting but we have to just make the best of it as we can at the moment.

Second half of season is generally the best times. Good luck. Gambling prob the hardest way of making money or one of the hardest. My main system is in front slightly this season , at one point it was 8pts down but rallied from there. Another one was up and down and another one down slightly. I know what it feels like when you have tough days can be very demoralising sometimes, but the great thing is whatever happens you always have the luxury of going to sleep and then waking up again the next day.

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November 29, 2020 - 11:23 am
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I dont pay a lot of attention to twitter and telegram as a lot of it I find acts me mentally ie contanstly seeing moaning and whinging

However one thing I will say re Ultimate is this.

The basic foundations of why the sheets work is it is built around odds brackets combined with form variances of teams over their last 6 home or away games. So if there is a fundmental long term change in results due to covid then one of 3 things will happen. 

1. Your bets will naturally drop off as the change in colour form works it way through the form points total

2. Results will change and your systems will become profitable again

3. If long term things do change then this will be reflected in heat maps and pivot tables and its up to you to adjust your systems accordingly.

Also for me part of this is also having a diverse betting set up and not having all your systems set up to say all be lay the draw/lack home whatever it may well be. If a certain type of result picks up you will get a hammering whilst this short term variance is happening.

This is where bank management and research into deepest holes should have been already undertaken to ensure you dont ever go bust and your bank roll allows you to come through the downturn accordingly.

I am seeing a lot of negative stuff online about FTS and Ian in general and most of it is total bollocks. At the end of the day the only person responsible for how you bet/trade is YOU and YOU have to manage yourself to ensure you are long term not set up to fail.

We have all been there, I was a newbie once and busted numerous bank rolls and been in some dark places but if you approach things long term and with the correct set up and mindset then within them sheets there is gold, its all about trusting the numbers and mindset and making sure you are set up bankroll wise so you cant fail

If this post helps one person then it will have been worth posting it

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November 29, 2020 - 10:13 pm
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I have had a poor start to the season, no winning month yet !

I have 4 main banks with 3/4 systems in each (14 systems in total), taking Ian’s advice and tripling the max drawdown each bank has a value of 150 points.

I have 3 systems that are in profit, +6pts, +3pts and +6pts, some of the losing systems have already passed the deepest hole on the databases records.  Overall I am -65.21 points down, its certainly a big mindset test losing the first 3 months in a row but when I combine the 4 bank sizes I have a total of 600 points so I should have enough of a safety net to see it through.

If it was easy everyone would do it Wink

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