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Topic Rating: +57 Topic Rating: +57 (63 votes) 
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Goals,Thrills and Headaches
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yardi2k
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November 30, 2020 - 12:35 pm
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Another brutal weekend for my Alternate systems of -20.4 points. Now on a drawdown of 51.16 points covering the last 157 games. I had deliberately set my systems to be fairly low draw down, high strike rate as it is my first season so I wanted to build confidence. In the 4 years of the database the previous biggest drawdown from my combination of systems was around 25 points from a total of 2,300 qualifying selections so this current drawdown is really outside the norm. Fortunately I set my bank to 100 points so am still OK but really struggling to keep the faith a bit at the moment. On the plus side my main league systems are doing OK so far.

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November 30, 2020 - 1:44 pm
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Just listened to the podcast and think it was perfectly timed for me. At the risk of tipping Ian over the edge I think I am going to drop him an email to discuss my banking set up, whilst I did give it thought at the outset and did a lot of work around system selection and historic drawdowns I would value his input as I now think my bank might be on the small side. I should also add there are lots of positives to my first FTS season, I feel I’m learning a lot, my discipline and routine has been good, my Main league systems are up, I’ve also quickly identified a couple of things that weren’t working well or I wasn’t particularly good at and introduced some basic automation to improve them.

I think the main thing is to experience the ups and downs and that will help me understand the ebbs and flows and continue to develop my mindset. The Monday podcasts are a fantastic resource and so are all the comments from other members who have been around for years and been through it all before, but there is nothing like experiencing things for yourself to enhance understanding and with it resiliance.

Keep the faith 🙂

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November 30, 2020 - 9:28 pm
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yardi2k said
I had deliberately set my systems to be fairly low draw down, high strike rate 

  

Hi mate. What do you mean by this exactly?

It seems quite an odd thing to say without having a crystal ball. Any bets can win/lose in any order for any sequences etc.

Are all your systems created by back testing data and tweaking filters?

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December 1, 2020 - 9:27 am
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Lord Dio said

yardi2k said

I had deliberately set my systems to be fairly low draw down, high strike rate 

  

Hi mate. What do you mean by this exactly?

It seems quite an odd thing to say without having a crystal ball. Any bets can win/lose in any order for any sequences etc.

Are all your systems created by back testing data and tweaking filters?

  

Hi Dio,

Yes really fair challenge and poorly articulated by me – unfortunately I don’t have a crystal ball and results will fall as they fall. What I meant was that I haven’t selected systems where I am laying at huge odds, so 2 or 3 bad results on the spin would cost me 20-30 points for example. I’ve also been careful to make sure that my portfolio of systems wont throw up duplicate selections, so I could end up having the same bet 3 times within the different systems and suffer a significant hit from one bad result. Additionally, I worked back through the past 4 years for each system to profile the historic drawdowns to understand what they have looked like and for the systems I took forward I’ve looked for ones that haven’t had significant downturns. They may have gone through periods of downturns or stood still for a while but no major lumpy falls. Of course, that doesn’t mean it can’t happen in the future.

Yes, systems were created by back testing, but I’ve been careful to look at broad ranges of odds so I’m not just targeting really small odds gaps for example and then applying the form traffic lights and the FTS odds ratings – again making sure they are fairly broad ranges to avoid just picking up an anomaly within a very narrow criteria set.

Paul

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December 1, 2020 - 11:59 am
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yardi2k said

Lord Dio said

yardi2k said

I had deliberately set my systems to be fairly low draw down, high strike rate 

  

Hi mate. What do you mean by this exactly?

It seems quite an odd thing to say without having a crystal ball. Any bets can win/lose in any order for any sequences etc.

Are all your systems created by back testing data and tweaking filters?

  

Hi Dio,

Yes really fair challenge and poorly articulated by me – unfortunately I don’t have a crystal ball and results will fall as they fall. What I meant was that I haven’t selected systems where I am laying at huge odds, so 2 or 3 bad results on the spin would cost me 20-30 points for example. I’ve also been careful to make sure that my portfolio of systems wont throw up duplicate selections, so I could end up having the same bet 3 times within the different systems and suffer a significant hit from one bad result. Additionally, I worked back through the past 4 years for each system to profile the historic drawdowns to understand what they have looked like and for the systems I took forward I’ve looked for ones that haven’t had significant downturns. They may have gone through periods of downturns or stood still for a while but no major lumpy falls. Of course, that doesn’t mean it can’t happen in the future.

Yes, systems were created by back testing, but I’ve been careful to look at broad ranges of odds so I’m not just targeting really small odds gaps for example and then applying the form traffic lights and the FTS odds ratings – again making sure they are fairly broad ranges to avoid just picking up an anomaly within a very narrow criteria set.

Paul

  

I see. In the above example where 2-3 bad losses cost 20-30 points, that really would be high odds, unless you mean where games are duplicated, in which case you need to ignore that possible banana skin whilst considering your systems etc. I would say from my experience you actually suffer worse drawdowns with lower lay odds which is fairly logical as higher lay odds = higher probability of winning and lower chance of longer losing runs. Working at say EVS you could easily have 10 losses in a row etc. 

Are you currently in test phase? Paper bets or £1-2 stakes? I would really not recommend (personally) back testing a system and then jumping straight in without live testing for 100-200 samples first to see if it performs as you’d expect. I’ve lost thousands in the past doing this. If you back test a system and it looks solid, then you start betting and it tails off and performs unusually poor, that probably isn’t variance but just demonstrating that you’ve forced profit in your testing and the predictive power isn’t really there. Of course it COULD be variance but you have to weigh up all the evidence you have. Just tread carefully please and avoid repeating mistakes I have in the past. 

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December 1, 2020 - 12:33 pm
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Thanks Dio for the advice. It is great to get guidance from people who have been around a lot longer than me and can advise on avoiding the mistakes. To be honest, no I dived straight in without doing a live test phase, so rookie error number 1 (albeit I have started at pretty low £10 stakes and across the board if I include main league systems I am break even to date so no harm done).

Sounds like I should be taking a step back and slowing things down a bit. 

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December 1, 2020 - 12:59 pm
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yardi2k said
Thanks Dio for the advice. It is great to get guidance from people who have been around a lot longer than me and can advise on avoiding the mistakes. To be honest, no I dived straight in without doing a live test phase, so rookie error number 1 (albeit I have started at pretty low £10 stakes and across the board if I include main league systems I am break even to date so no harm done).

Sounds like I should be taking a step back and slowing things down a bit. 

  

Best case scenario – It continues to perform as expected and you’ve further validated your system and have some live samples to show for it and can now slowly build stakes and compound

Worst case scenario – It completely bombs but your bank is largely intact due to smaller stakes

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December 6, 2020 - 10:09 pm
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starlord said
I have had a poor start to the season, no winning month yet !

I have 4 main banks with 3/4 systems in each (14 systems in total), taking Ian’s advice and tripling the max drawdown each bank has a value of 150 points.

I have 3 systems that are in profit, +6pts, +3pts and +6pts, some of the losing systems have already passed the deepest hole on the databases records.  Overall I am -65.21 points down, its certainly a big mindset test losing the first 3 months in a row but when I combine the 4 bank sizes I have a total of 600 points so I should have enough of a safety net to see it through.

If it was easy everyone would do it Wink

  

Just had a nice +32 point weekend, another few of those would be nice !

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December 16, 2020 - 10:25 am
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I’m currently going through a tough spell. My ultimate systems are running fine, I’m in my 2nd year for Ultimate and although the first year was hit and miss, it was a great learning curve. I was able to spend alot of time during the first lockdown to review my systems and that seems to have worked (so far) – Showing steady profits.

However, it’s my FDD bets that are really getting me down at the moment. Again, during lockdown, I was able to put together some systems focusing purely on the laying Under 0.5 First Half Goals market. Once the football started back again, I started placing these bets using small stakes – as I didn’t know how teams would come out after LD. The initial results were positive and things continued that way until around late November. In fact, from my results, it was 28th November where I peaked at 133 points up. Since then, I’ve lost almost 100 points and I’m finding it very difficult to maintain faith that this will turn.

Admittedly, the initial approach was placing my lay stake pre-kick off and some of the odds were quite high so my stake was reduced accordingly to match my “Max Liability” stake. Therefore, I decided for some of those matches, I would wait until the odds reached a more suitable level (This differed based on my assessment of the game and where my entry point would be). As a result of the bad run, for the last few days, I’ve been assessing the bets that my system has flagged up and analysing them in more detail against the historic data i.e. looking at the home team and their odds and seeing how they perform in terms of FHG’s and similar for away teams – where there is an obvious risk i.e. both teams show losses, I choose not to bet that game. I don’t know if I’m now over analysing these games!?

I’m tempted to step back for now and assess how my systems do over the Christmas period and decide whether it’s “just a phase” or whether my 133 point flurry was pure luck! One thing I do wonder is when Ian talks about his approach for FHG on the podcast is that he waits 20-25 minutes before entering and with that approach, I often find that the goal comes to early before I could enter or that when I do get on, the goal never comes. 

I understand this is mental battle and that the initial results are strong but when you’re hit with such a bad run, it’s difficult to see alot of hard work just wipe out in such a short space of time. I run a 300 point bank so it’s not empty but it’s a real knock in confidence – last night for example, my mindset has changed from “knowing there will be a goal” to just expecting another loss.

Would be good to get another members perspective and maybe even some thoughts on the FHG market, for those who delved there.

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December 16, 2020 - 11:07 am
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I am currently running a FHG system that shows historical profits in certain leagues, based on a couple of filters, however I am am only just into the live betting phase with smallish stakes, but I am laying Under 0.5 FHG at 3 time points, 25, 35 and 40 mins so my risk reward is OK, I miss loads of early goals but also catch a lot of really late ones when the rewards are very tasty, it will be interesting to see how it pans out over the next few months.

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December 17, 2020 - 9:14 am
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I am having it super tough mentally at the moment. The losers I’m picking up seem to be the biggest ones and those winners I’m getting just don’t make up the difference. My bank in November went from about 25pts up to currently 10pts down in about 3 weekends worth of football.

Last night I had Lay Away on Montpellier V Metz @ odds of 5.7

It’s my first year on FTS and everything started quite nicely but the last 3-4 weeks have hit me really hard.

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GH Trader said
I am having it super tough mentally at the moment. The losers I’m picking up seem to be the biggest ones and those winners I’m getting just don’t make up the difference. My bank in November went from about 25pts up to currently 10pts down in about 3 weekends worth of football.

Last night I had Lay Away on Montpellier V Metz @ odds of 5.7

It’s my first year on FTS and everything started quite nicely but the last 3-4 weeks have hit me really hard.

  

I am currently in my worse spell ever. Not had a winning bet in 12 games across all my systems. 6 scratches and 6 losing bets. I was also on the same French game.

Dropped 22.22 pts inside 2 nights meaning currently losing streak is at almost 40 points which is the worse its ever been but thats why you have a bankroll. It would take another 5 times that sequence for me to be near to going bust so just got to ride it out  

Mentally it is tough atm but I am up doing the same process re FDD and my horses and will continue to do so. This is where Ian is right mentally you have to re train your brain and just focus on the process and be so strong mentally but it is tough to not sit there and look for a reason as to why but there isnt one its just short term variance and combination of games.

Tonight I am back home and ltd at Sheffield United. As a Manchester United fan as well if we are going to drop points tonight then I would rather a defeat then a draw. A draw and the laptop might be getting launched ha ha ha ha. How people lay at 8 and above is beyond me, tonight on the sheff utd game is my max risk.

I am now back in the red for the season by about 12 points overall but it is what it is, keep going

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December 17, 2020 - 2:11 pm
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leewillo75 said

GH Trader said

I am having it super tough mentally at the moment. The losers I’m picking up seem to be the biggest ones and those winners I’m getting just don’t make up the difference. My bank in November went from about 25pts up to currently 10pts down in about 3 weekends worth of football.

Last night I had Lay Away on Montpellier V Metz @ odds of 5.7

It’s my first year on FTS and everything started quite nicely but the last 3-4 weeks have hit me really hard.

  

I am currently in my worse spell ever. Not had a winning bet in 12 games across all my systems. 6 scratches and 6 losing bets. I was also on the same French game.

Dropped 22.22 pts inside 2 nights meaning currently losing streak is at almost 40 points which is the worse its ever been but thats why you have a bankroll. It would take another 5 times that sequence for me to be near to going bust so just got to ride it out  

Mentally it is tough atm but I am up doing the same process re FDD and my horses and will continue to do so. This is where Ian is right mentally you have to re train your brain and just focus on the process and be so strong mentally but it is tough to not sit there and look for a reason as to why but there isnt one its just short term variance and combination of games.

Tonight I am back home and ltd at Sheffield United. As a Manchester United fan as well if we are going to drop points tonight then I would rather a defeat then a draw. A draw and the laptop might be getting launched ha ha ha ha. How people lay at 8 and above is beyond me, tonight on the sheff utd game is my max risk.

I am now back in the red for the season by about 12 points overall but it is what it is, keep going

  

Thanks Lee, I was actually feeling better before these midweek games as I’d found a tweak to on of my alternate league systems which was a smaller amount of bets for only a small reduction in historic points returned. I still think it’s the right thing to have done but it was just galling when that system then found 2 of the biggest losers I’ve had recently. 

To be honest Ian said something on the POD the other day about FTS not necessarily being for someone starting with a £500 bank and that’s exactly what I’ve done! That might be playing into my mindset at the moment. I will persevere though just need to get through this rough patch.

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December 17, 2020 - 2:47 pm
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GH Trader said

leewillo75 said

GH Trader said

I am having it super tough mentally at the moment. The losers I’m picking up seem to be the biggest ones and those winners I’m getting just don’t make up the difference. My bank in November went from about 25pts up to currently 10pts down in about 3 weekends worth of football.

Last night I had Lay Away on Montpellier V Metz @ odds of 5.7

It’s my first year on FTS and everything started quite nicely but the last 3-4 weeks have hit me really hard.

  

I am currently in my worse spell ever. Not had a winning bet in 12 games across all my systems. 6 scratches and 6 losing bets. I was also on the same French game.

Dropped 22.22 pts inside 2 nights meaning currently losing streak is at almost 40 points which is the worse its ever been but thats why you have a bankroll. It would take another 5 times that sequence for me to be near to going bust so just got to ride it out  

Mentally it is tough atm but I am up doing the same process re FDD and my horses and will continue to do so. This is where Ian is right mentally you have to re train your brain and just focus on the process and be so strong mentally but it is tough to not sit there and look for a reason as to why but there isnt one its just short term variance and combination of games.

Tonight I am back home and ltd at Sheffield United. As a Manchester United fan as well if we are going to drop points tonight then I would rather a defeat then a draw. A draw and the laptop might be getting launched ha ha ha ha. How people lay at 8 and above is beyond me, tonight on the sheff utd game is my max risk.

I am now back in the red for the season by about 12 points overall but it is what it is, keep going

  

Thanks Lee, I was actually feeling better before these midweek games as I’d found a tweak to on of my alternate league systems which was a smaller amount of bets for only a small reduction in historic points returned. I still think it’s the right thing to have done but it was just galling when that system then found 2 of the biggest losers I’ve had recently. 

To be honest Ian said something on the POD the other day about FTS not necessarily being for someone starting with a £500 bank and that’s exactly what I’ve done! That might be playing into my mindset at the moment. I will persevere though just need to get through this rough patch.

  

Ian did mention that about the £500 bank, however if you are just learning the process as you will be for your first year and provided that your stakes are small the £500 should be fine, you won’t make a tonne of money but as he has said and it really is something that needs to resinate its all about learning the process and getting your mindset right, if either of these areas are wrong its going to end in tears. You can always increase stakes as your bank grows.

As I have always been told and agree with, if you cannot make money using £2 stakes you won’t make money using £100 stakes. 

Stick at it mate and i’m confident that you will come through the other side in a good position, you only lose now if you quit altogether, as you can see from Lee’s post its a tough period at the moment and we all just have to dig in and ride the storm out, I also got caught with the Metz game but these games are always going to come up, that game meant a 6 point swing for me in the wrong direction, but overall over the midweek games i’m 2 points up and I would take that every week……. Up the Villa 🙂

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December 17, 2020 - 2:51 pm
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Neil said

GH Trader said

leewillo75 said

GH Trader said

I am having it super tough mentally at the moment. The losers I’m picking up seem to be the biggest ones and those winners I’m getting just don’t make up the difference. My bank in November went from about 25pts up to currently 10pts down in about 3 weekends worth of football.

Last night I had Lay Away on Montpellier V Metz @ odds of 5.7

It’s my first year on FTS and everything started quite nicely but the last 3-4 weeks have hit me really hard.

  

I am currently in my worse spell ever. Not had a winning bet in 12 games across all my systems. 6 scratches and 6 losing bets. I was also on the same French game.

Dropped 22.22 pts inside 2 nights meaning currently losing streak is at almost 40 points which is the worse its ever been but thats why you have a bankroll. It would take another 5 times that sequence for me to be near to going bust so just got to ride it out  

Mentally it is tough atm but I am up doing the same process re FDD and my horses and will continue to do so. This is where Ian is right mentally you have to re train your brain and just focus on the process and be so strong mentally but it is tough to not sit there and look for a reason as to why but there isnt one its just short term variance and combination of games.

Tonight I am back home and ltd at Sheffield United. As a Manchester United fan as well if we are going to drop points tonight then I would rather a defeat then a draw. A draw and the laptop might be getting launched ha ha ha ha. How people lay at 8 and above is beyond me, tonight on the sheff utd game is my max risk.

I am now back in the red for the season by about 12 points overall but it is what it is, keep going

  

Thanks Lee, I was actually feeling better before these midweek games as I’d found a tweak to on of my alternate league systems which was a smaller amount of bets for only a small reduction in historic points returned. I still think it’s the right thing to have done but it was just galling when that system then found 2 of the biggest losers I’ve had recently. 

To be honest Ian said something on the POD the other day about FTS not necessarily being for someone starting with a £500 bank and that’s exactly what I’ve done! That might be playing into my mindset at the moment. I will persevere though just need to get through this rough patch.

  

Ian did mention that about the £500 bank, however if you are just learning the process as you will be for your first year and provided that your stakes are small the £500 should be fine, you won’t make a tonne of money but as he has said and it really is something that needs to resinate its all about learning the process and getting your mindset right, if either of these areas are wrong its going to end in tears. You can always increase stakes as your bank grows.

As I have always been told and agree with, if you cannot make money using £2 stakes you won’t make money using £100 stakes. 

Stick at it mate and i’m confident that you will come through the other side in a good position, you only lose now if you quit altogether, as you can see from Lee’s post its a tough period at the moment and we all just have to dig in and ride the storm out, I also got caught with the Metz game but these games are always going to come up, that game meant a 6 point swing for me in the wrong direction, but overall over the midweek games i’m 2 points up and I would take that every week……. Up the Villa 🙂

  

Thanks Neil, I know we’ve discussed a bit privately on twitter so you’re help is always appreciated! Definitely powering through and learning lots at the moment, just have moments of weakness after a heavy defeat.

 

Your post was almost a perfect reply, if only you hadn’t ruined it with the last 3 words! 

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December 17, 2020 - 4:35 pm
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GH Trader said

leewillo75 said

GH Trader said

I am having it super tough mentally at the moment. The losers I’m picking up seem to be the biggest ones and those winners I’m getting just don’t make up the difference. My bank in November went from about 25pts up to currently 10pts down in about 3 weekends worth of football.

Last night I had Lay Away on Montpellier V Metz @ odds of 5.7

It’s my first year on FTS and everything started quite nicely but the last 3-4 weeks have hit me really hard.

  

I am currently in my worse spell ever. Not had a winning bet in 12 games across all my systems. 6 scratches and 6 losing bets. I was also on the same French game.

Dropped 22.22 pts inside 2 nights meaning currently losing streak is at almost 40 points which is the worse its ever been but thats why you have a bankroll. It would take another 5 times that sequence for me to be near to going bust so just got to ride it out  

Mentally it is tough atm but I am up doing the same process re FDD and my horses and will continue to do so. This is where Ian is right mentally you have to re train your brain and just focus on the process and be so strong mentally but it is tough to not sit there and look for a reason as to why but there isnt one its just short term variance and combination of games.

Tonight I am back home and ltd at Sheffield United. As a Manchester United fan as well if we are going to drop points tonight then I would rather a defeat then a draw. A draw and the laptop might be getting launched ha ha ha ha. How people lay at 8 and above is beyond me, tonight on the sheff utd game is my max risk.

I am now back in the red for the season by about 12 points overall but it is what it is, keep going

  

Thanks Lee, I was actually feeling better before these midweek games as I’d found a tweak to on of my alternate league systems which was a smaller amount of bets for only a small reduction in historic points returned. I still think it’s the right thing to have done but it was just galling when that system then found 2 of the biggest losers I’ve had recently. 

To be honest Ian said something on the POD the other day about FTS not necessarily being for someone starting with a £500 bank and that’s exactly what I’ve done! That might be playing into my mindset at the moment. I will persevere though just need to get through this rough patch.

  

if you goal is monetary this season then £500 quid bank isnt the rght set up but if your goal is learning process and systems then £500 is the right set up as long as your stake is small and you are on at least 100 point bank

I sound like I am kissing Ian’s arse when I say this and I am not but he is right in the fact make yourself bomb proof and the battle is in the head. After all, all it is is a numbers game long term nothing more nothing less

Its about making sure the numbers work long term and for that you have to be bomb proof

Learn the process and long term the money side of it will look after itself

But is that part easy, is it heck, its a total mindfuck sometimes and even I currently have a parrot on my shoulder telling me that the whole concept of the databases are set up with price and form odds and at the moment one key variable to them prices is crowds and there is no crowds so if that carries on there will be an adjustment

You just have to keep going and make yourself bomb proof and keep in the game both bank wise and mentally

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December 17, 2020 - 11:32 pm
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14 games and still no win ha ha ha ha

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December 18, 2020 - 12:25 pm
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With my system amendment for the alternate leagues I’ve gone from about 20+ bets a round to 8 this weekend! Less is more (Or at least I hope it is!)

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December 18, 2020 - 2:46 pm
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GH Trader said
With my system amendment for the alternate leagues I’ve gone from about 20+ bets a round to 8 this weekend! Less is more (Or at least I hope it is!

Hi, Ian will always mention we can over filter our sheets to much, it will pay to a paper trade the old set ups just to see in the long run how it finished once a macro is set up its easy to keep a eye on.

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Lord Dio
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December 18, 2020 - 9:16 pm
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GH Trader said
I am having it super tough mentally at the moment. The losers I’m picking up seem to be the biggest ones and those winners I’m getting just don’t make up the difference. My bank in November went from about 25pts up to currently 10pts down in about 3 weekends worth of football.

Last night I had Lay Away on Montpellier V Metz @ odds of 5.7

It’s my first year on FTS and everything started quite nicely but the last 3-4 weeks have hit me really hard.

  

That isn’t really anything to do with performance that’s just the risk/reward you’ve chosen for yourself. Anything that can be layed at 7.0, could also be layed at 3.0 or 2.0 or 1.5 etc later in the match.

If big losses are causing you concern, change your entry time. The value still exists later in the game, if it exists at all at the big lay price. 

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