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Topic Rating: +57 Topic Rating: +57 (63 votes) 
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Goals,Thrills and Headaches
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Lord Dio
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December 18, 2020 - 9:19 pm
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GH Trader said
With my system amendment for the alternate leagues I’ve gone from about 20+ bets a round to 8 this weekend! Less is more (Or at least I hope it is!)

  

I would say laying at big prices no you need more volume, not less. Sorry!! You have smaller yields at higher lay prices so you need more games. 2 losses and you can no opportunity to recover it each weekend.

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leewillo75
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December 19, 2020 - 11:35 am
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the 14 game run without a winning bet is over …… thank you Union Berlin 

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GH Trader
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December 19, 2020 - 12:44 pm
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leewillo75 said
the 14 game run without a winning bet is over …… thank you Union Berlin 

  

I was on this too! Saw it when I woke up this morning, nice win.

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leewillo75
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December 21, 2020 - 9:52 pm
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GH Trader said

leewillo75 said

the 14 game run without a winning bet is over …… thank you Union Berlin 

  

I was on this too! Saw it when I woke up this morning, nice win.

  

and it was only one of 3 all window ….. worse run I am ever experiencing but this is the mental part where you have to carry on and refuse to panic and change

But dropping 50 pts inside a run is bloody brutal but thats what the bank roll is for

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December 22, 2020 - 9:13 am
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leewillo75 said

GH Trader said

leewillo75 said

the 14 game run without a winning bet is over …… thank you Union Berlin 

  

I was on this too! Saw it when I woke up this morning, nice win.

  

and it was only one of 3 all window ….. worse run I am ever experiencing but this is the mental part where you have to carry on and refuse to panic and change

But dropping 50 pts inside a run is bloody brutal but thats what the bank roll is for

  

Ouch! Keep going mate, sounds like you’re mentally strong enough anyway! I had a successful weekend with 7/8 winners. After talking on here I made another change to a system. I was previously laying the draw AND laying away at mega prices but realised I could make similar profit (At least historically) backing home and laying the draw on the same system. Much lower liability which makes me feel a lot more comfortable.

I’m now not laying anything higher than around 7.

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carlos73
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December 24, 2020 - 10:08 am
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Morning Everyone,

Just want to say a big thankyou to everyone that has aired their view/concerns/wins etc and hope it continues into the new year. We can all learn a lot here from other members and hopefully will encourage those who are wavering to continue until the seasons end.

We are a community and are here to help those that need it.

Personally myself I’ve had a very up and down season so far, i managed to enter into the first stage of 50/50 stakes but it has been very mixed since that entry point. If i break it down into a single point I’m around 87 pts up ( 91 pts if i include the 50/50 stake ) but had a very bad couple of weeks ,only 4pts up for December, but hey its a long game and the systems i have will prevail, even though the Serie A is killing me at the moment !!

So i want to wish you all a Merry Christmas, hard i know under the current circumstances, but enjoy it the best you can with your loved ones and please stay safe, be responsible and we will come out of this on top, eventually.

See you all on the other side

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jenno99
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December 30, 2020 - 10:57 pm
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That was a tough round of fixtures for LTD systems with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Liverpool all drawing. Watching the games it feels like the gap has narrowed between the big European teams and the rest and the markets haven’t reflected that in the prices yet. I’m going to take a look at making some changes to my systems I think -for instance backing the home team rather than laying the draw so the liabilities are smaller. 

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Lord Dio
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December 30, 2020 - 11:27 pm
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jenno99 said
 I’m going to take a look at making some changes to my systems I think -for instance backing the home team rather than laying the draw so the liabilities are smaller. 

  

That doesn’t seem to make much sense. Liabs are smaller and so will the returns be. If the edge is gone, temporarily or not, just switching your risk reward around won’t fix anything?

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December 31, 2020 - 4:07 am
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Lord Dio said

jenno99 said

 I’m going to take a look at making some changes to my systems I think -for instance backing the home team rather than laying the draw so the liabilities are smaller. 

  

That doesn’t seem to make much sense. Liabs are smaller and so will the returns be. If the edge is gone, temporarily or not, just switching your risk reward around won’t fix anything?

  

Sorry, I didn’t explain myself well. In my current setup I have some systems where I back outcomes and some where I lay. So I am risking 1u on a team winning at home in one system and 6u on a team not drawing in another. I didn’t anticipate this would be a problem for me when I started, but the big mismatch in staking has not been enjoyable in the first few months of doing ultimate. One loss on a lay system can turn the whole weekend red and having 6u on a game just feels like I’m overstaking. My solution going forward is to switch to just having the back systems, so I’m going to look at backing the home dog rather than laying the draw when a big team is playing away from home.

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December 31, 2020 - 7:22 am
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Why not just reduce the size of your lay stake?

I never understand when people say that their liabilities are high when they’re laying. You control the liabilities. 

Personally I use a liability of 1 point when laying, rather than laying to win a point.

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December 31, 2020 - 7:36 am
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Beeble said
Why not just reduce the size of your lay stake?

I never understand when people say that their liabilities are high when they’re laying. You control the liabilities. 

Personally I use a liability of 1 point when laying, rather than laying to win a point.

  

Yes, that is a good idea. I’m going to have a look at the roi of different bets (back home/lay draw/lay away, etc) on my systems. At the beginning of the season, when I was setting up, I was taken in by the high number of points won with laying the draw on some systems without really considering how much I was staking to win those points.

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December 31, 2020 - 8:39 am
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jenno99 said
That was a tough round of fixtures for LTD systems with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Liverpool all drawing. Watching the games it feels like the gap has narrowed between the big European teams and the rest and the markets haven’t reflected that in the prices yet. I’m going to take a look at making some changes to my systems I think -for instance backing the home team rather than laying the draw so the liabilities are smaller. 

  

Personally I think it’s far too early to be making these changes. The main leagues are not even halfway through the season yet, I think it’s an over reaction to one poor set of results which have happened, have happened before and will happen again.

All my opinion of course and you have to do what suits you

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December 31, 2020 - 9:15 am
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Neil said

jenno99 said

That was a tough round of fixtures for LTD systems with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Liverpool all drawing. Watching the games it feels like the gap has narrowed between the big European teams and the rest and the markets haven’t reflected that in the prices yet. I’m going to take a look at making some changes to my systems I think -for instance backing the home team rather than laying the draw so the liabilities are smaller. 

  

Personally I think it’s far too early to be making these changes. The main leagues are not even halfway through the season yet, I think it’s an over reaction to one poor set of results which have happened, have happened before and will happen again.

All my opinion of course and you have to do what suits you

  

I think the stuff I said in that post about the value being gone was an emotional overreaction – I was upset about losing so many points. However, I am going to make the changes to my staking as it is something I’ve been thinking about for a while but I wanted to give it to Christmas until I made any changes. It feels like I made a mistake in my initial set up with the mix of laying and backing systems and laying with such big stakes compared to the back bets. I think Beeble’s lay with 1 pt liability is a good idea.

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December 31, 2020 - 10:02 am
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Do keep in mind that with the reduced liability ( and profit ) it will take you longer to dig yourself out of the current hole. It’s a judgement only you can make based on your setup, but it is worth checking whether the peace of mind each week is worth the longer road out of the red zone.

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leewillo75
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December 31, 2020 - 11:20 am
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Neil said

jenno99 said

That was a tough round of fixtures for LTD systems with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Liverpool all drawing. Watching the games it feels like the gap has narrowed between the big European teams and the rest and the markets haven’t reflected that in the prices yet. I’m going to take a look at making some changes to my systems I think -for instance backing the home team rather than laying the draw so the liabilities are smaller. 

  

Personally I think it’s far too early to be making these changes. The main leagues are not even halfway through the season yet, I think it’s an over reaction to one poor set of results which have happened, have happened before and will happen again.

All my opinion of course and you have to do what suits you

  

I dont know mate I am in the middle of doing some analysis but I will say this re the 4 main leagues ….. look at the history of the database never ever has btd been profitbale this season it is up almost 90pts

But again for me its about being set up right and understaking risk to reward and bank management. If you are laying at an avg price of say 6s then you need a strike rate to match that set up or long term you arent going to make money

Everything is about price 

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December 31, 2020 - 11:24 am
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I do agree with Neil, it could be an overreaction to a bad set of results, like scorex said, if you reduce your stakes it will take longer to recover from these losses. If you’ve setup your bank properly and staked

accordingly you should be able to ride it out. I know it’s a real kick in the balls with draws at Barcelona, Liverpool and Real Madrid this week. It’s happened before and will happen again when laying the draw at those prices. 

Look below for just 2018 and 2019 when bad results happen together in one gameweek. 

 

DateLeagueHome TeamAway TeamHomeDrawAway Draw Lay
Saturday 3 February 2018English Premier LeagueBurnleyMan City13.506.401.33-5.40
Saturday 3 February 2018Primera DivisionLevanteReal Madrid17.007.801.38-6.80
Sunday 4 February 2018Primera DivisionEspanyolBarcelona11.505.401.42-4.40
Sunday 6 May 2018English Premier LeagueMan CityHuddersfield1.1014.00 -13.00
Sunday 6 May 2018Serie ANapoliTorino1.286.60 -5.60
Saturday 15 September 2018Primera DivisionAtletico MadridEibar1.394.80 -3.80
Sunday 16 September 2018Serie ARomaChievo1.276.60 -5.60
Sunday 23 September 2018Primera DivisionBarcelonaGirona1.1112.50 -11.50
Tuesday 25 September 2018Bundesliga 1Bayern MunichAugsburg1.1212.00 -11.00
Saturday 24 November 2018Bundesliga 1Bayern MunichFortuna Dusseldorf1.1114.00 -13.00
Saturday 24 November 2018English Premier LeagueMan UtdC Palace1.425.20 -4.20
Tuesday 29 January 2019English Premier LeagueMan UtdBurnley1.306.20 -5.20
Wednesday 30 January 2019English Premier LeagueLiverpoolLeicester1.257.20 -6.20
Saturday 2 February 2019Primera DivisionBarcelonaValencia1.326.40 -5.40
Saturday 2 February 2019Serie AJuventusParma1.207.60 -6.60
Sunday 7 April 2019Serie ALazioSassuolo1.375.60 -4.60
Sunday 7 April 2019Serie ANapoliGenoa1.305.60 -4.60
Friday 16 August 2019Bundesliga 1Bayern MunichHertha Berlin1.198.80 -7.80
Saturday 17 August 2019English Premier LeagueMan CityTottenham1.405.60 -4.60
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December 31, 2020 - 11:39 am
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shanekeogh said
I do agree with Neil, it could be an overreaction to a bad set of results, like scorex said, if you reduce your stakes it will take longer to recover from these losses. If you’ve setup your bank properly and staked

accordingly you should be able to ride it out. I know it’s a real kick in the balls with draws at Barcelona, Liverpool and Real Madrid this week. It’s happened before and will happen again when laying the draw at those prices. 

Look below for just 2018 and 2019 when bad results happen together in one gameweek. 

 

DateLeagueHome TeamAway TeamHomeDrawAway Draw Lay
Saturday 3 February 2018English Premier LeagueBurnleyMan City13.506.401.33-5.40
Saturday 3 February 2018Primera DivisionLevanteReal Madrid17.007.801.38-6.80
Sunday 4 February 2018Primera DivisionEspanyolBarcelona11.505.401.42-4.40
Sunday 6 May 2018English Premier LeagueMan CityHuddersfield1.1014.00 -13.00
Sunday 6 May 2018Serie ANapoliTorino1.286.60 -5.60
Saturday 15 September 2018Primera DivisionAtletico MadridEibar1.394.80 -3.80
Sunday 16 September 2018Serie ARomaChievo1.276.60 -5.60
Sunday 23 September 2018Primera DivisionBarcelonaGirona1.1112.50 -11.50
Tuesday 25 September 2018Bundesliga 1Bayern MunichAugsburg1.1212.00 -11.00
Saturday 24 November 2018Bundesliga 1Bayern MunichFortuna Dusseldorf1.1114.00 -13.00
Saturday 24 November 2018English Premier LeagueMan UtdC Palace1.425.20 -4.20
Tuesday 29 January 2019English Premier LeagueMan UtdBurnley1.306.20 -5.20
Wednesday 30 January 2019English Premier LeagueLiverpoolLeicester1.257.20 -6.20
Saturday 2 February 2019Primera DivisionBarcelonaValencia1.326.40 -5.40
Saturday 2 February 2019Serie AJuventusParma1.207.60 -6.60
Sunday 7 April 2019Serie ALazioSassuolo1.375.60 -4.60
Sunday 7 April 2019Serie ANapoliGenoa1.305.60 -4.60
Friday 16 August 2019Bundesliga 1Bayern MunichHertha Berlin1.198.80 -7.80
Saturday 17 August 2019English Premier LeagueMan CityTottenham1.405.60 -4.60

  

agree totally but then this is where people set ups and mindset re prices is key. I wont lay anything above 6s as it gives me the willies ……

 

So in that sample of matches, 19 games, 12 I wouldnt have been involved.

 

All about price, system set up and bank management. As Ian says 99.99% of the battle in this game is in the head

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jenno99
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December 31, 2020 - 11:42 am
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Thanks for the advice guys. Clearly if the system goes on a good run it’ll take me longer to recover the money I lost – but I’m not sure that bothers me too much, my stakes are quite small and I want to get my setup right for me for the long term. The staking inequalities between backing for 1u risk and laying for 6u risk just isn’t right for me mentally.

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leewillo75
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December 31, 2020 - 11:44 am
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jenno99 said
Thanks for the advice guys. Clearly if the system goes on a good run it’ll take me longer to recover the money I lost – but I’m not sure that bothers me too much, my stakes are quite small and I want to get my setup right for me for the long term. The staking inequalities between backing for 1u risk and laying for 6u risk just isn’t right for me mentally.

  

and that for me is the key … doing what is right for you mentally 

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