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bluebird91
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Hi Guys,

Sorry this post is in the wrong location i tried entering in the introduction section but this was the only section which had the Add topic button on for some reason.

 

After my first year or so trying to trade the football markets I found myself doing the usual newbie mistakes, no plan, entering and exiting markets at random points, trading too emotionally, terrible bank management and blowing banks up (basically gambling). So I decided just to stop and focus more on the learning aspect as I want to take this very serious. I didn’t want to place another penny on before I have a clearly defined plan going forward with a quantifiable edge and the right mindset to back it up with.

 

I realised the reason I was finding it so hard to get anywhere was because unlike the way we’ve been taught to learn in school; we’re provided with a set of books (information) we then go off and just learn what’s written on those books and repeat the theory we’ve learnt in a test.

But as we know this game doesn’t work like that. Most of us start off with no clue, we don’t know where to turn, have nobody giving us any guidance or information to learn, we have to seek that out for ourselves. And don’t even know if any of that information is relevant and if we’re just going down another aimless track.

 

Anyway i’ve come to the conclusion that if I want an edge in the market I either need to find it statistically or through a good set of match reading skills to find value when the opportunity arises in play. (ideally both)

I think i’d much rather concentrate on the statistical route at this point in time and find +EV bets as I think it would be a lot easier to control myself emotionally with this approach, knowing what edge I have calculated as compared to relying on a reading of the game edge (as that is a much harder skill to master and to quantify if you’re genuinely doing the right thing as a beginner IMO).

 

I have been trying to focus learning as much content about goals in a football match (how much each team is expected to score, when are they most likely to score, who’s most likely to score first etc)

through this journey of trying to obtain as much data as possible and make sense of it I came across FTS and the spreadsheets available and it looks like a very useful resource.

As most stats that are available don’t come with the historical betfair odds attached I find it hard to develop a strategy around it as I don’t know how it would have performed in the past and therefore if it would likely be profitable in the future (I know this would lead to doubt in the future if a strategy I deployed started going against me)

 

But with the FTS spreadsheets it looks perfect to see in clear light how this system has performed in the past and how it is likely to play out in the future, which will make it a lot easier to ride them waves when they come along I think.

 

My plan for the future is to sign up the start of next season (whenever that may beCry) and start off with the sample systems to begin with, taking a long term view. I’m hoping this can be my bread and butter throughout the season, while I try and develop a small few of my own to start testing either with paper or very small stakes and build from there. Hopefully this structured plan leads to the start of a bit of success.

 

I would also love to hear any advice anyone has for me here on how to accelerate my knowledge and what should I should focus on learning until then.

 

Anyway sorry for the really long post but i’ve got too much spare time on my hands at the momentLaugh

 

Cheers, Dai

 

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April 7, 2020 - 7:48 pm
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Dai, you have definitely come to the right place.

I will make Ian aware of your post and he’ll probably email you directly to help you get set up.

Arthur

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Lord Dio
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Welcome. I can only offer the following advice as you progress your journey:

1) Forget Cardiff City and support the mighty Reds over the bridge

2) Never type centrally aligned ever again – my eyes hurt

3) For now as you say focus more on quantifiable/measurable/objective metrics and stats that you can record and compare and test. “Match reading skills” is quite a vague and subjective area for me. It would differ vastly from person to person and would be hard to measure and record in large volume whereas with a numbers/stat based approach you could have a database of 40,000 games available instantly to analyse.

4) For your chosen markets e.g. HT lay, O2.5 Pre match, FHG etc, learn the “average” win rates and therefore the associated price you might usually expect to find at different times during the game. If you aren’t sure what sort of price you might find at 20 mins, HT, 60 mins, 70 mins etc, it can be hard to identify your perceived value. That is just my view anyway. If I am entering on 60 mins, I am fairly sure the max (and min) price I would accept and what quantifies value for me. 

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April 8, 2020 - 10:49 am
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bluebird91 said

Hi Guys,

Sorry this post is in the wrong location i tried entering in the introduction section but this was the only section which had the Add topic button on for some reason.

 

After my first year or so trying to trade the football markets I found myself doing the usual newbie mistakes, no plan, entering and exiting markets at random points, trading too emotionally, terrible bank management and blowing banks up (basically gambling). So I decided just to stop and focus more on the learning aspect as I want to take this very serious. I didn’t want to place another penny on before I have a clearly defined plan going forward with a quantifiable edge and the right mindset to back it up with.

 

I realised the reason I was finding it so hard to get anywhere was because unlike the way we’ve been taught to learn in school; we’re provided with a set of books (information) we then go off and just learn what’s written on those books and repeat the theory we’ve learnt in a test.

But as we know this game doesn’t work like that. Most of us start off with no clue, we don’t know where to turn, have nobody giving us any guidance or information to learn, we have to seek that out for ourselves. And don’t even know if any of that information is relevant and if we’re just going down another aimless track.

 

Anyway i’ve come to the conclusion that if I want an edge in the market I either need to find it statistically or through a good set of match reading skills to find value when the opportunity arises in play. (ideally both)

I think i’d much rather concentrate on the statistical route at this point in time and find +EV bets as I think it would be a lot easier to control myself emotionally with this approach, knowing what edge I have calculated as compared to relying on a reading of the game edge (as that is a much harder skill to master and to quantify if you’re genuinely doing the right thing as a beginner IMO).

 

I have been trying to focus learning as much content about goals in a football match (how much each team is expected to score, when are they most likely to score, who’s most likely to score first etc)

through this journey of trying to obtain as much data as possible and make sense of it I came across FTS and the spreadsheets available and it looks like a very useful resource.

As most stats that are available don’t come with the historical betfair odds attached I find it hard to develop a strategy around it as I don’t know how it would have performed in the past and therefore if it would likely be profitable in the future (I know this would lead to doubt in the future if a strategy I deployed started going against me)

 

But with the FTS spreadsheets it looks perfect to see in clear light how this system has performed in the past and how it is likely to play out in the future, which will make it a lot easier to ride them waves when they come along I think.

 

My plan for the future is to sign up the start of next season (whenever that may beCry) and start off with the sample systems to begin with, taking a long term view. I’m hoping this can be my bread and butter throughout the season, while I try and develop a small few of my own to start testing either with paper or very small stakes and build from there. Hopefully this structured plan leads to the start of a bit of success.

 

I would also love to hear any advice anyone has for me here on how to accelerate my knowledge and what should I should focus on learning until then.

 

Anyway sorry for the really long post but i’ve got too much spare time on my hands at the momentLaugh

 

Cheers, Dai

 

  

Hi good luck. What is your goal? Do you want to be a millionaire at some point in the future, or make a living from gambling? Is a long term game but everything is possible in my view for anyone if you never give up and have commitment,  keep learning 

 

Is a good place to learn about football betting with genuine people 

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ArtTest

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April 8, 2020 - 11:51 am
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Thanks for the replies all

 

Lord Dio said
Welcome. I can only offer the following advice as you progress your journey:

1) Forget Cardiff City and support the mighty Reds over the bridge

2) Never type centrally aligned ever again – my eyes hurt

3) For now as you say focus more on quantifiable/measurable/objective metrics and stats that you can record and compare and test. “Match reading skills” is quite a vague and subjective area for me. It would differ vastly from person to person and would be hard to measure and record in large volume whereas with a numbers/stat based approach you could have a database of 40,000 games available instantly to analyse.

4) For your chosen markets e.g. HT lay, O2.5 Pre match, FHG etc, learn the “average” win rates and therefore the associated price you might usually expect to find at different times during the game. If you aren’t sure what sort of price you might find at 20 mins, HT, 60 mins, 70 mins etc, it can be hard to identify your perceived value. That is just my view anyway. If I am entering on 60 mins, I am fairly sure the max (and min) price I would accept and what quantifies value for me. 

  

1) Never in a million years, there’s blue and white running through these veins Laugh which mighty reds might you be on about anyway?

2) I’ve edited that now i hope your eyes have re aligned

3) That’s exactly my thinking behind it, when analysing a game with your eyes its very hard to judge fair value (i’m sure it gets easier with vast amounts of experience). Also there’s a tendency to get emotional when betting like this and i find it leaning towards gambling when you don’t have much experience. I think a stats based approach can virtually eliminate the emotions which i think is the downfall for most people starting out, as long as you have ingrained in mind that you will go through dips in your account and need to ride them out to let your edge play through in the end.

One question when betting through finding systems through the spreadsheet – When we come across a system that has been profitable in the past (lets say the last 4 years or so). Obviously past performance doesn’t mean guaranteed success in the future. But essentially that is what we are saying is going to happen because it has been profitable over a period of time we then expect it to be profitable in the future but we will hit some variance along the way. But how would you then know when to start questioning if that system works any more once it starts taking a down turn, how would we know if its lost its edge, and how long would we carry on with it until we come to the conclusion it isn’t viable any more

4) I’m hoping to use the ultimate spreadsheet with set and forgets for my main betting next year but am also interested in testing that approach at the same time. For example looking at first half goals where the pre match stats indicate both teams score and concede regularly in the first half, but looking at teams that normally score in the second half of the first half. Then entering after 20 mins or so if the price looks right and the game has a bit of tempo

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April 8, 2020 - 11:52 am
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ArtTest said
Dai, you have definitely come to the right place.

I will make Ian aware of your post and he’ll probably email you directly to help you get set up.

Arthur

  

Thanks mate got the email, yes seems like this place is fairly aligned with the way i want to go forward

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bluebird91
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April 8, 2020 - 12:01 pm
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Hi good luck. What is your goal? Do you want to be a millionaire at some point in the future, or make a living from gambling? Is a long term game but everything is possible in my view for anyone if you never give up and have commitment,  keep learning 

 

Is a good place to learn about football betting with genuine people 

  

The long term goal is definitely to make a living from it in the end, i do realise it is a long road to that point and a lot of effort and persistence is required to get there though. But i’m going to take this very serious and treat this more like a start up business rather than something to do for enjoyment. Short term it would be nice to just have a profitable year even though i wont be using decent stakes until i see a decent year or two play out. But once i’m in that position of consistency and confidence in what i’m doing i wont be afraid to ramp it up and push it as much as i can.

Whats your situation then are you full time at the moment? if so what do you think were the main learning points to get to there?

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April 8, 2020 - 1:41 pm
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bluebird91 said
Thanks for the replies all

 

Lord Dio said

Welcome. I can only offer the following advice as you progress your journey:

1) Forget Cardiff City and support the mighty Reds over the bridge

2) Never type centrally aligned ever again – my eyes hurt

3) For now as you say focus more on quantifiable/measurable/objective metrics and stats that you can record and compare and test. “Match reading skills” is quite a vague and subjective area for me. It would differ vastly from person to person and would be hard to measure and record in large volume whereas with a numbers/stat based approach you could have a database of 40,000 games available instantly to analyse.

4) For your chosen markets e.g. HT lay, O2.5 Pre match, FHG etc, learn the “average” win rates and therefore the associated price you might usually expect to find at different times during the game. If you aren’t sure what sort of price you might find at 20 mins, HT, 60 mins, 70 mins etc, it can be hard to identify your perceived value. That is just my view anyway. If I am entering on 60 mins, I am fairly sure the max (and min) price I would accept and what quantifies value for me. 

  

1) Never in a million years, there’s blue and white running through these veins Laugh which mighty reds might you be on about anyway?

2) I’ve edited that now i hope your eyes have re aligned

3) That’s exactly my thinking behind it, when analysing a game with your eyes its very hard to judge fair value (i’m sure it gets easier with vast amounts of experience). Also there’s a tendency to get emotional when betting like this and i find it leaning towards gambling when you don’t have much experience. I think a stats based approach can virtually eliminate the emotions which i think is the downfall for most people starting out, as long as you have ingrained in mind that you will go through dips in your account and need to ride them out to let your edge play through in the end.

One question when betting through finding systems through the spreadsheet – When we come across a system that has been profitable in the past (lets say the last 4 years or so). Obviously past performance doesn’t mean guaranteed success in the future. But essentially that is what we are saying is going to happen because it has been profitable over a period of time we then expect it to be profitable in the future but we will hit some variance along the way. But how would you then know when to start questioning if that system works any more once it starts taking a down turn, how would we know if its lost its edge, and how long would we carry on with it until we come to the conclusion it isn’t viable any more

4) I’m hoping to use the ultimate spreadsheet with set and forgets for my main betting next year but am also interested in testing that approach at the same time. For example looking at first half goals where the pre match stats indicate both teams score and concede regularly in the first half, but looking at teams that normally score in the second half of the first half. Then entering after 20 mins or so if the price looks right and the game has a bit of tempo

  

Bristol City of course. I thought Cardiff played in Red any way, the Red Dragons ha-ha or has that project lapsed now …

It’s a tricky question and you will get lots of different answers. I hear over and over and over that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Possibly true but doesn’t mean it cannot. The way I drill back through my stats has left me with some systems that I devised 3-4 years ago that still work now, so I don’t listen to people who say “cant”. 

When backtesting/data mining like this, the key for me is that the filters you’re devising arent arbitrary. If they are, it could just be a random spell of results that happen to be profitable in the time frame you’re reviewing. This is just randomness at work. You could feasibly bet for 6-12 months or longer and be profitable through sheer luck alone.

Some filters might be profitable based on price alone and that is just a trend that will last for X months/years but you’d expect not forever.

I tend to work backwards using “some” of my historic data say for example 2016 and 2017 and then I might apply the same filters to 2018 and 2019 etc to see if the results continue. This sometimes shows clearly where you’ve just fudged a profit/result by fliltering columns or where you’ve identified some sort of edge.

The next step is obviously to test live, to see if you can obtain the same results with real prices on offer to you. I do this with smaller stakes for 3-6 months then make a decision. 

Alot of it is just trial and error TBH. Before the lockdown I had over 40 trials on the go. Some might be good some might not. All you can do it test. 

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April 8, 2020 - 9:48 pm
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Hello Dai

 

You’re definitely in the right place, the support here is the best I’ve known and I’ve tried a few, the forum itself can provide many answers but Ian is also available to answer via email.

Use this down time to learn, learn discipline, learn bank management, learn record keeping, start small and build slowly, have a plan and stick to it.

Hard work breeds rewards.

Chris.

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April 9, 2020 - 6:42 am
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If you look under Betsliip sub-forum you’ll see a Stat of the Day thread. Some interesting starting points there. Make sure you are on the @FTSIncome twitter and listen to the daily podcasts. Also in the Betslip sub-forum you’ll see a thread which points to some of Ian’s podcasts with specific advice. Podcasts are a goldmine if you can get past Ian’s “singing”.

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Stat of the day is as Art says a great starting point, some absolute gems in there if you cherry pick you can have yourself a nice portfolio to get you started 

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April 10, 2020 - 4:18 pm
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One of the best pieces of betting advice I’ve taken on board from Ian is to be contrary.  Everyone is backing teams with “strong stats”.  There is value to be had going against the tide.  When you start taking this advice and start applying it in Ultimate or FDD sheets, its amazing what it throws up.

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April 11, 2020 - 11:58 am
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Bristol City of course. I thought Cardiff played in Red any way, the Red Dragons ha-ha or has that project lapsed now …

It’s a tricky question and you will get lots of different answers. I hear over and over and over that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Possibly true but doesn’t mean it cannot. The way I drill back through my stats has left me with some systems that I devised 3-4 years ago that still work now, so I don’t listen to people who say “cant”. 

When backtesting/data mining like this, the key for me is that the filters you’re devising arent arbitrary. If they are, it could just be a random spell of results that happen to be profitable in the time frame you’re reviewing. This is just randomness at work. You could feasibly bet for 6-12 months or longer and be profitable through sheer luck alone.

Some filters might be profitable based on price alone and that is just a trend that will last for X months/years but you’d expect not forever.

I tend to work backwards using “some” of my historic data say for example 2016 and 2017 and then I might apply the same filters to 2018 and 2019 etc to see if the results continue. This sometimes shows clearly where you’ve just fudged a profit/result by fliltering columns or where you’ve identified some sort of edge.

The next step is obviously to test live, to see if you can obtain the same results with real prices on offer to you. I do this with smaller stakes for 3-6 months then make a decision. 

Alot of it is just trial and error TBH. Before the lockdown I had over 40 trials on the go. Some might be good some might not. All you can do it test. 

  

I thought as much, let me just get my crucifix out Laugh Saying that we have signed half of your squad in last 3  seasons or so. Back in blue now anyway he saw the light in the end thank god.

It seems that is basically what we base our whole assumption on past performance and i think this may be the area i will struggle in the most starting off, determining whether i am on the wrong side of variance and just to wait and ride it out, or question the filters i put in place to get the system whether i just engineered it so it would show a profit (with arbitrary criteria as you say). Or whether something has fundamentally changed within it and therefore doesn’t work any more.

Seems like i’ll have to go through a lot of trial and error to gain experience of knowing when it is either of them.

Are those 40 trials very time consuming every day then or is it a quick process of just copy and pasting results on to each filter to give you a running total?

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April 11, 2020 - 1:20 pm
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I am reminded of this adage: “Nothing worthwhile is easy, nothing easy is worthwhile”!

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ArtTest said
I am reminded of this adage: “Nothing worthwhile is easy, nothing easy is worthwhile”!

  

Absolutely!

I cant find the stat of the day thread on the Bet slip area, i can see all the podcast but am having trouble locating where the stat of the day is? or are they within the podcasts?

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April 11, 2020 - 9:07 pm
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bluebird91 said

Bristol City of course. I thought Cardiff played in Red any way, the Red Dragons ha-ha or has that project lapsed now …

It’s a tricky question and you will get lots of different answers. I hear over and over and over that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Possibly true but doesn’t mean it cannot. The way I drill back through my stats has left me with some systems that I devised 3-4 years ago that still work now, so I don’t listen to people who say “cant”. 

When backtesting/data mining like this, the key for me is that the filters you’re devising arent arbitrary. If they are, it could just be a random spell of results that happen to be profitable in the time frame you’re reviewing. This is just randomness at work. You could feasibly bet for 6-12 months or longer and be profitable through sheer luck alone.

Some filters might be profitable based on price alone and that is just a trend that will last for X months/years but you’d expect not forever.

I tend to work backwards using “some” of my historic data say for example 2016 and 2017 and then I might apply the same filters to 2018 and 2019 etc to see if the results continue. This sometimes shows clearly where you’ve just fudged a profit/result by fliltering columns or where you’ve identified some sort of edge.

The next step is obviously to test live, to see if you can obtain the same results with real prices on offer to you. I do this with smaller stakes for 3-6 months then make a decision. 

Alot of it is just trial and error TBH. Before the lockdown I had over 40 trials on the go. Some might be good some might not. All you can do it test. 

  

 

Are those 40 trials very time consuming every day then or is it a quick process of just copy and pasting results on to each filter to give you a running total?

  

I am using BF Bot Manager software. It currently has 67 systems running, about half are completely automated and half will be based on games I pre-load each day where they meet my shortlists. My daily process could take 2-3 hours a day at the weekend. Reporting is easy, I can export to Excel all my results from the software, into my Master sheet to analyse. 

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April 13, 2020 - 11:52 am
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ArtTest said
https://ftsincome.co.uk/fts-fo…..f-the-day/

  

When i click on the link this comes up:

Access denied – you do not have permission to view this page

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ArtTest
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April 13, 2020 - 1:02 pm
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Oh, I’ll contact Ryan.

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April 13, 2020 - 4:51 pm
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ArtTest said
Oh, I’ll contact Ryan.

  

The link is working now… thanks mate Smile

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