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My October Approach - Volume/Mindset/Targets
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October 30, 2019 - 11:59 am
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Apologies if this is in the wrong section, couldn’t really see a general betting/mindset section. I guess this is to do with bank/staking to an extent. 

I mentioned on Twitter a few weeks ago I had a new idea I was working on for October. My betting approach has been all over the place for nearly 18 months now which coincides with me becoming a Dad. Being single or even being married allows a completely different “days work” compared to working from home with a kid. I’ve had to basically completely overhaul my approach to my research and general application.

It is a transformation that I’m sure will pay off however, as I mentioned to Ian privately recently it “should” allow me a bit more flexibility and also allow my wife time to focus on her own business which is booming at the moment. 

Previously I might run 5-6 shortlists each day and load them into FlashScore and Fut24 appl and then work through them throughout the day where odds appeal etc. Some weekends I’d be working from 4pm on a Friday until 10pm Sunday night. As I showed on Twitter last November with my public diary it can go well working with these volumes, with +10 +15 days etc, however you can also have -10 days too.

Volume betting and tackling everything from your shortlists is fine when you have time or have bots running it for you, and the law of large numbers theory would support it, however with my stuff with family commitments now I’d quite often hit losers when I had time to bet, and then miss winners early in the morning or at key evening times when its bathtime etc. That sort of run for long enough will not do your mentality any favours so I’ve opted more recently to go back to less volume and ideally “better” hand picked bets. 

Over the last 6-7 years I must have trialed or worked on 50 different betting systems. Thats not to say 50 different markets or entry points, most will be similar but they are different shortlists or ways of identifying a match. With the large volume approach trying to work from 10-20 systems a month in play is nearly impossible and works your bank too hard. As such I had lots of systems sat being unused. 

I did try to offset some of these as a long term growth fund with smaller stakes but my interest in that declined after 1-2 months to be perfectly honest.

So my October challenge was to …

1) Make use of the systems I had worked hard on the last few years
2) Eliminate FOMO/stress of betting all day
3) Work flexibly and only when I could make the time and focus
4) Bet LESS than previous months whilst making the same/more in terms of points/yield

I then got thinking on an individual system basis, how good is this system, how many selections will it give me, historically how many wins in a row have I had, what is the R/R etc. I asked myself if I only had 1 system to use each month, could I make myself a measly 3 points a month. The obvious answer is yes I bloody hope so. Therefore my idea for October was to simply try and make 3 points, but for 18 systems I felt were up to the challenge. 

Obviously you have account for losing runs and losing months but I felt this was a handy way of diversifying my risk. The issue with relying on 1-3 systems a month as your bread and butter is that when 1 or more have a bad month, you’re detracting and wiping out large chunks of profit from the other systems, often leaving you with not much. With my 18 systems, I did some scenario planning as follows…

112.5027.50
7-3.00-21.00
  6.50
   
122.5030.00
6-3.00-18.00
  12.00
   
132.5032.50
5-3.00-15.00
  17.50
   
142.5035.00
4-3.00-12.00
  23.00

This table would be fairly self explanatory, it is showing the net profit for the month if winning systems chipped in 2.5 points each and losing ones lost 3 each. With my “worst case” presented as 11 winning system and 7 losing systems for a net +6.50 points. I couldn’t really foresee it being any worse than that, but who knows!

With a couple of days left in this month I’ve had 12 winning systems contributing +30.07 points and 6 losing systems with total losses of 17.28 for a net +12.79. This is pretty much in line with the “second worst” scenario in the table I’ve shown above. This does include 4-5 “bad” decisions I made earlier in the month too which were around -10 in total that Im kicking myself over.

With each system once I hit +2.5 or +3 I simply ticked it off and stopped using it for the month. This meant that the money was banked and I could focus the rest of my time in the month picking good quality selections for the remaining systems that hadn’t yet met their target.

I was reluctant to let a method go beyond -4 or -5 so some literally only had 2 bets but if both lost for say -4 in total, I just left it alone and wrote it off as a bad month. My initial concern with say winning 3/3 and stopping was that the yield would be too high however for my +13 this month I’m actually only at 9% which is pretty much my normal level anyway.

This approach does mean that the first 2 weeks of the month are busier but it means the end of the month is more flexible, if my targets are met I can make time for family stuff and social events which is a huge bonus.

I know not everyone likes to set goals and work in time periods, but for me this is “work” and I need to be sure I can make X points a month to meet the goals Ive set myself. If this approach works for me long term, that’s all that really matters!

I think that’s all I had to blurt out but hopefully it is of some use maybe if it helps others structure their work. Without some silly mistakes Id be well over +20 for this month so I’ll have that as a little target for November! 

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October 30, 2019 - 12:53 pm
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This is an interesting approach for sure and I’m glad it seems to have worked out so far. Do you feel as though you achieved what you set out to when you set this goal a few weeks ago?

Any nuggets that can be taken away from someone who’s been there and got the t-shirt over the last few years, is very much appreciated. Thank you for sharing.

Always learning...

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October 30, 2019 - 1:02 pm
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Callum said
This is an interesting approach for sure and I’m glad it seems to have worked out so far. Do you feel as though you achieved what you set out to when you set this goal a few weeks ago?

Any nuggets that can be taken away from someone who’s been there and got the t-shirt over the last few years, is very much appreciated. Thank you for sharing.

  

I think so mate yes as any month that is +10 points or more and around 10% yield I have to take as a good month. Deep down I should be more like +25 but that’s through my own stupidity really.

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October 30, 2019 - 1:32 pm
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Interested to hear how you get on with this.  I have often thought about implementing stop losses on strategies, but have always thought that fomo would get the better of me.

I too have an 18 month old and a wife with her own business which is also booming.  I’m not full time at this, i have a day job, so slightly different in that regard, but family time in evenings and weekends are so precious to me, it has led me to totally revamp how i bet since the wee man came along, so i can totally understand where you are coming from.  The majority of my betting is done using bots now.  That has free’d up a lot of my time, and I signed up to ultimate this season for that reason too, it’s set and forget, place the bets on Friday and forget about it all weekend.

So i only have 2 strategies currently which aren’t automated, about 4-5 games a day on a Sat and Sun which is manageable when you have a wife who understands that when a sofascore alert comes in that action needs to be taken haha.

Best of luck bud!

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simonmuir62 said
Interested to hear how you get on with this.  I have often thought about implementing stop losses on strategies, but have always thought that fomo would get the better of me.

I too have an 18 month old and a wife with her own business which is also booming.  I’m not full time at this, i have a day job, so slightly different in that regard, but family time in evenings and weekends are so precious to me, it has led me to totally revamp how i bet since the wee man came along, so i can totally understand where you are coming from.  The majority of my betting is done using bots now.  That has free’d up a lot of my time, and I signed up to ultimate this season for that reason too, it’s set and forget, place the bets on Friday and forget about it all weekend.

So i only have 2 strategies currently which aren’t automated, about 4-5 games a day on a Sat and Sun which is manageable when you have a wife who understands that when a sofascore alert comes in that action needs to be taken haha.

Best of luck bud!

  

 Cheers mate.

i actually feel the FOMO is less this way, as you might be +3 early on in the month then 10-20 bets later still be +3 or worse given all the ups and downs so when a method starts well and gets ticked off, I sort of feel I’ve done all the hard work.

 

Having less to focus on as the month progresses was the main benefit for me.

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November 2, 2019 - 6:34 pm
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Lord Dio said

simonmuir62 said

Interested to hear how you get on with this.  I have often thought about implementing stop losses on strategies, but have always thought that fomo would get the better of me.

I too have an 18 month old and a wife with her own business which is also booming.  I’m not full time at this, i have a day job, so slightly different in that regard, but family time in evenings and weekends are so precious to me, it has led me to totally revamp how i bet since the wee man came along, so i can totally understand where you are coming from.  The majority of my betting is done using bots now.  That has free’d up a lot of my time, and I signed up to ultimate this season for that reason too, it’s set and forget, place the bets on Friday and forget about it all weekend.

So i only have 2 strategies currently which aren’t automated, about 4-5 games a day on a Sat and Sun which is manageable when you have a wife who understands that when a sofascore alert comes in that action needs to be taken haha.

Best of luck bud!

  

 Cheers mate.

i actually feel the FOMO is less this way, as you might be +3 early on in the month then 10-20 bets later still be +3 or worse given all the ups and downs so when a method starts well and gets ticked off, I sort of feel I’ve done all the hard work.

 

Having less to focus on as the month progresses was the main benefit for me.

  

thanks mate I have never thought of looking at things like that …. defo food for thought for myself 

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