185 Responses

  1. Morning all! I’m a new member to FTS Ultimate and have a system on the new leagues sheet I thought I’d share and get any thoughts on. Its a home shorties LTD with the following filters:
    Leagues – Belgium, Portugal & Turkey Only
    Home Odds – 1.1-1.5
    Draw odds – <7
    Away From – Remove green
    BF Book – <150
    Returns from past 3 seasons are 82.25 points.

    Nothing new and exciting, a home shorties LTD, but numbers look very good to me. Concerned it looks to good to be true. Calculated the maximum draw down as 24.65 points.

  2. Hi All,
    If there are any concerns/issues with the traffic light pivot then , I’d Ian doesn’t mind, I will strive to help you, Ian will have a lot to contend with so divert these to here. I’m away from today, but will check in and if anything urgent I’ll do what I can.

  3. If you take the draw above 5 and below 7 you get less bets and still 79.8 points. Seems anything under 5 draw makes only 1 pint in the 2 years.

  4. Make the draw 5 – 8 inclusive and it is +96.65 points over 2 seasons. 215 bets, and not many losing runs

  5. Another new member to FTS Ultimate, this one is similar to Simon’s
    Home Shorties LTD

    Leagues – all except Dutch Eredivise
    Home odds – 1.1 – 1.5
    Draw odds – </= 7

    Returns last 3 seasons 124.9 points
    Max draw down – 12 points

    Again numbers look very good, hoping that I have not made any errors

  6. Hi All,

    Hope it won’t be a boring read. Here is what I have came up with to this moment since Ian gave us access :
    1. Dutch Eredivisie + English Championship
    1.1 Home Team odds between 1.61 – 2.25
    1.2 Away Team odds less than or equal to 6
    1.3 Amber, Red – Amber, Red
    Season 16/17 : 22.45
    Season 17/18 : 42.5
    Season 18/19 : 45.5
    Last three seasons total profit : 110.05

    2. Belgium + Dutch Eredivisie
    2.1 Home Team odds between 1.1 – 2.0
    2.2 Away Team odds less than or equal to 6
    2.3 Amber, Green – Amber, Greed, Red
    Season 16/17 : 25.9
    Season 17/18 : 45.9
    Season 18/19 : 66.3
    Last three seasons total profit : 138.13

    Clear for me that Laying the Away teams area has a great potential with certain criteria. But what worries me most is the fact that between the seasons is such a large spread. Another example of laying the away teams where the difference between the season is pretty much equal :

    1. Dutch Eredivisie
    1.1 Home Team odds between 1.51 – 2.5
    1.2 Away Team odds less than 6
    1.3 Amber, Green – Amber, Greed, Red
    Season 16/17 : 20.52
    Season 17/18 : 17.54
    Season 18/19 : 17.33
    Last three seasons total profit : 55.39

    Every system/filter is very individual but I am just wondering what is more efficient. The one that shows the same profit over the seasons or the one that is more variable.

    And the final one :

    1. English Championship
    1.1 Home Team odds between 1.61 – 2.5
    1.2 Away Team odds less than 6
    1.3 FTS Odds Draw less than or equal to 6
    1.4 Difference Away less than or equal to 6
    1.3 Amber, Green – Amber, Greed, Red, Grey
    Season 16/17 : 16.60
    Season 17/18 : 27.10
    Season 18/19 : 23.65
    Last three seasons total profit : 67.35

    Great tool!

  7. I have one that is pretty simple and that did well last season and should continue. It includes the Portugese top four teans at home. I called it simply “Portugal”:
    Home Teams: Porto, Benfica, Sporting, Braga
    Price under 1.7
    Season Points
    2018/19 38,40
    2017/18 43,75
    2016/17 0,85
    total 83,00
    A variation is to take the same 4 home teams each time they play some other team but not against each other (so not “Porto vs. Braga” for example)
    2018/19 35,55
    2017/18 47,25
    2016/17 -3,60
    total 79,20
    The downside here is the 16/17 seasons small loss, but that season seems to be an outsider with many strategies I have realized, to the positive but most of all negativ. Ian says we should not look at only one season, but the overall outcome.

  8. Thanks for clarifying. By the way most systems from these new leagues will likely be lay away as they start off +398 without any single filter. One thing to be aware of, there was a phase of away teams winning out f trend for a while and it may well reverse. Dont overload your systems with just one type, have some LTD or other types too.

  9. If you remove German and English as only made 13 points in 3 seasons, how many bets does that remove?

  10. I don’t mind high volume and placing lots of bets. It’s not for everyone, but I find losing runs are turned around quicker and obviously the more bets that play out in your system, the more robust your system proves to be.

  11. Great info guys, very helpful! Once I have a few systems I’ll be happy to share them. Hope we all have a great season!

  12. Here’s a simple one that I found last year and ran it. Original leagues, England and Spain only, home between 2-2.2, home amber or grey, away not green. Back away and LTD. 157 points to 357 bets. Last year was only about break even, typical! Will stick with it for this year though. Remarkably, if you change to 2.01-2.25, as per pivot tables, profit reduces to 99.

  13. Hi guys, with regards to bankroll and staking would I be best splitting my bankroll by system, so say I had a br of 3k and had 3 systems and divide each by 3 so each system had 1k and then divide by 50 = £20 per bet sound ok? cheers

  14. Hi Jamie,

    It’s all subjective to comfort levels, risk profile of each system etc.

    Personally, I have 5 or 6 LTD systems running on 1 bank. Doing it this way gets the growth levels. You’ll find that losses are evened out by wins on the others. When they you get a good spell, you get good growth towards increasing stakes. Obviously this is dependent on your systems, but running off one £3K bank would more than likely grow quicker than 3 x £1K banks.

    Hard to comment without knowing what your systems are, but depending on their profile, I’d be more inclined to have one £3K bank running at between £30 – £60 per point (50 – 100 points).

    Only way to really figure it out is to take the last 3 years (or 7 years if from main odds sheet) results, and plot out what would have happened with a combined £3K bank and then again, 3 x £1K banks.


  15. Hi All

    Some great advice already posted, for this year I will run three max systems they can easily be run off one bank provided they are not high risk lays or big odds.

    I intend to to have 3 systems off the the old leagues which continued from last year and three 3 systems running off the new leagues.

    If you decide on new systems during the year monitor them with a view to maybe trial for the 2020 system.

    A spreadsheet bet should never turn into a trade, I have done this so i know.
    Place your bets on Friday and don’t monitor them every game as this will drive you crackers throughout the year.

    If anyone wants advice I have been there done it all made all the mistakes and am still here making profit so don’t worry it is a long road.

    I believe in helping people but you must help yourself first, get your mindset correct as without this you have no chance of succeeding.
    You will have doubts along the way but you must keep the blinkers on and be singleminded.

    Finally think positive go and get that cash, stick to what works simple is easy that’s why they say keep it simple stupid….

  16. Hi !!

    First year here and pretty excited about the long term results this will bring.

    Keeping it simple this first year with 4 systems :-

    Using Ian’s pre programmed macros I’ll be laying the away team for both the Bundesliga 2 & The Championship.
    Returns for this 16/17 – 33.48 points, 17/18 – 22.68 points, 18/19 – 59.09 points.

    Also will be laying the away team in Ian’s pre build macro – Top Teams. Returns are 16/17 – 39.15 points, 17/18 – 35.95 points, 18/19 – 22.40 points.

    Finally will be doing the FTS Beginner LTD for what is advertised.

    Will be watching here with interest for anything that looks exciting too – good luck everyone !!

  17. First off hello to all, its great to be a member of Ultimate.
    I have a question that hopefully isnt to daft. With the 2015 seminar sytems Ian has set up,using the mid season one as an example would i back home and lay draw as both make a decent return.
    I hope thats not to daft a question.Good luck to all and Steve Kingkenny thanks for the post and offer of helping us out.

  18. Roger that is a personal call and down to mindset really obviously if it is a draw you lose twice, if that does not bother you then it is a consideration.

  19. heres mine

    Portugal Primera
    LTD Under 3.51
    Home filter RED
    Away filter AMBER/RED
    No of bets 111 PNL 57.1
    2016 +13.5
    2017 +16.5
    2018 +14.55
    2019 +12.55

    max draw -7

  20. Hi Stu

    Just looking at your systems posted up, just personal advise I might try to incorporate a lay the draw home shorties system as all four are laying the away team.

    Sooner or later the variance will kick in and it might offer you some diversity in your portfolio.

  21. Good call Steve, thanks, will either swap that in…or just add it to my system.


  22. hi all, first year on ultimate, I have found a system that is very similar to Neil’s above (new leagues Belgium, France, Portugal and Turkey
    ltd home shorties 1.1-1.5, draw odds 50

    124 points from 265 matches.

    Having read some of the comments above my only worry is not just with this certain system but in general, what indicators is there to tell if a system has been over performing and may have a variance turn?
    I’m thinking because the new leagues show a profit from ltd before any filters are added that most ltd systems are going to show a profit anyway which you’d assume will have to turn around sooner than later.
    Hope that makes sense and maybe I’m over thinking it but would be good to hear peoples thoughts

  23. If I am not mistaken, LTD shows the best results on both New and Main, with much more historical data for main. I think Main might be a small loss, but nowhere near what the others. Hence this is always a good starting point for systems and what a lot of Ian does is based around.

    I think I made a point about Lay Away, as I remember a period of over performing on these and was warning of that given how many points up these are without filter.

    My head tells me to expect in realty both Lay Draw and Lay Away to come down overall and that is my main worry about the new leagues and only 3 seasons data.

    Remember this is 7 leagues not 4 like Main though, but still +157 and +298 are huge numbers for flat out no filter results.

    I would probably recommend more systems in your portfolio from Main than New, until maybe another season is in the books? My guess is many will have more of these as they start earlier and probably produce more systems / bets.

    Just be careful.

    Would be interesting to know how many Ian uses based on the New database compared to the Main database?

  24. Hi Matt

    I think you are right and I have screwed this up, would you mind telling me the formula that you use for calculating maximum drawdown?

    Thanks in advance


  25. Tom – I don’t understand “draw odds 50”? There must be a typo!

  26. Hi guys, have posted one I am operating myself this season in one of my systems.

    New leagues : all new leagues (except bundesliga 2, turkey and france ligue 1). No bet in may
    Home odds 1.85 or less, away odds 6 or less. Away colour index all except grey

    16/17= 52.5 pts, 17/18 = 64.2 pts, 18/19 = 53.65 pts

    roughly 140 bets a season,

    Hope everyone has a very good season. Just try and do the right things and execute what you planned, at least then you can look yourself in the mirror at the end of the season and be proud of who you are and that you have done all you can.

    Be positive and fearless, one thing we are always in control of regardless of what happens is the emotions that we are experiencing. Ideally better to be experiencing positive emotions regularly rather than negative ones as positive ones will attract positive things into your life.

    A lot of people think god is some creature in the heavens that they pray to but really all humans are godly creatures and god lives inside us, this is what I believe. We have incredible powers and by thinking in a positive way and being fearless we can do great things.

    When you are gambling there are many squeaky bum type moments that can occur, you have to just surrender control and embrace it. Prime example is the barcelona vs levante game last season, I had layed the draw for 25k liability set and forget, was an overlap on quite a few angles,deemed to be a very strong bet. Barcelona were big value in that game at odds of 1.30.

    Messi didn’t start and at HT the score was 0-0, coutinho was on the pitch in the first half and missed many sitters. If messi had started they would probably have been 3-0 up at HT. I just kept calm and fearless, Messi came on straight away for coutinho in the second half and he obviously ended up winning the game 1-0. They lifted the la liga trophy after that game. I’ll never forget that one personally even though barcelona played so badly in that game at times. Gambling gives you some great memories and moments that live with you forever. Whilst you don’t kick the ball yourself, you can be a part of special things like that in some way.

    In my opinion everyone is capable of achieving things as we are all made of the same stuff fundamentally. A lot of people maybe don’t think they are worthy of any success or are not brave enough to believe in themselves. Gambling can be a lonely game as most people don’t really understand it and therefore it alienates you from a lot of people. But it is very enjoyable and it gives you a lot of freedom. It makes you a better person and a stronger person which is the most important thing

    Lot of the time you have to be strong enough to believe in yourself when other people may not believe in you and be brave. Just taking responsibility for your actions, learning from past experiences and mistakes and being positive and brave you can do anything.

    You have to be detached from money as well to be a gambler as you are constantly winning and losing. Winning runs and losing runs. My sister for example is very attached to money, she once dropped 50 pence on the floor and had a heart attack. Whereas if I drop £10 on the floor accidentally it is annoying but you just carry on.

    This is why gamblers are very generous people in my view, because they are detached from money they are very giving and try and help others. When you take risks as well on a regular basis it opens you up to the greatest emotions in life.

  27. Thankks Gurds, I am sure many will want to follow this.

    Can you clarify the settings as I dont get what you get? Also, is this back home, Lay Away?

    You say no bets in May, but what happens when there is June also, do you mean no bets from May on until next season?

    I took form your post the following:

    All leagues (except bundesliga 2, turkey and france ligue 1).
    No bets in May
    Home odds 1.85 or less, away odds 6 or less.
    Away colour index all except grey
    roughly 140 bets a season,

    I get about 250 bets a season so assuming I got something wrong somewhere? I also do not get your results (assuming this is Lay Away?)

    Please can you clarify the system settings.


  28. sorry yes should have read:
    home odds 1.1-1.5
    draw odds 50

  29. Hi mate,

    I have double-checked it again and I have it right what I said.


    Leagues- Belgium, Eredivisie, Championship, Portugal (essentially exclude bund 2, turkey and france)

    Home odds must be 1.85 or less (i,e. less than or equal to 1.85)
    away odds 6 or less (less than or equal to 6)

    Exclude all games in may, as laying away for lots of angles tends to fall down in may long term, maybe big teams taking foot off the gas in some cases. So benefit to us to have lots of extra bets in May for this angle for no reason. June shouldn’t even be an option on there as we are excluding turkey so june won’t pop up.

    away colour index (red, amber and green). i.e. we exclude greys from the away colour index, teams where no form.

    the database is showing 177.56 pts from 451 bets last 3 yrs

    but seeing as last season betfair made some errors with pricing up some games with very weak markets on the friday in belgium, I took this into account and looked at this and my record shows it would have been a profit of 54pts in 18/19 rather than 60+ 18/19 as there was some incorrect markets in belgium

    I contacted betfair couple months back telling them to make sure the belgian games were priced properly in advance with little gaps and they told me they would pass this on to the relevant team. Early signs are they have taken heed of this, the first games in belgium this season were priced up well in advance on the website with fairly tight market. It’s a case where you have to badger them, sometimes they get lazy and forget. Even anderlecht vs oostende this weekend gone they had as saturday game when it was a 1.30pm ko on sunday, it was me that pointed this out to them and they then changed it to right date.

  30. Hi All,

    1. French Ligue 1
    1.1 Home Team odds between 1.81 – 2.50
    1.2 Away Team odds less than or equal to 6
    1.3 Amber, Green – Amber, Greed, Red
    Season 16/17 : 37.35
    Season 17/18 : 16.25
    Season 18/19 : 15.06
    Last three seasons total profit : 68.66
    Total bets : 342
    Max draw down : -8.85

  31. Hi Neil

    I don’t think there’s a specific formula, if there is it would be great if somebody could comment. I basically just go though the results by selecting a losing cell and then dragging. It’s just playing around with it until you get the biggest minus figure.

    As you can see from Feb 6th-Apr 1st, we started with a -3.30 loss and ended with a -3.90 loss. Before and after that we had a good run of results, so it’s basically looking at the losses and finding the spots where the max drawdown is, sometimes it’s short in terms of time, others it can go on for a few months to find it. You just have to play around with it.

    That’s how I do it anyway, if there’s a quicker way then if somebody could comment then it would be great.

  32. something is going wrong here!
    i think my comments are being moderated and edited to make me look daft!

    bits of both my comments have been removed which said:

    draw odds less than 7

    home v draw difference above 50

  33. Thanks Gurds, I get the same now I think the profit figures were throwing me off but your explanation above makes a lot of sense and makes it much clearer.

    Cheers for sharing and good luck this season!

  34. Cheers Ian….. Looks like its done it 3rd time. it definitely edited out a couple of lines the 2 previous times though.

  35. Hi All,
    Been reading through this page and can see there has been some talk about results for the new leagues. As has been already mentioned, the starting point for the new leagues is +157 on Lay the Draw without any filters applied. Of this, 135 points came from Portugal (86%). Of this 135 point total, 146 points come from the previous two seasons and 2016/17 was -11 points. Across 17/18 and 18/19 20.2% of games in the Portugal League were drawn. The % of draws from the five seasons before that (12/13 to 16/17) was 25.8%. I could go on with stats etc. but basically i think the previous two seasons in Portugal have been outliars. Laying the draw in every game would have given a profit, but this is not the case for prior seasons. Theres no reason why the low number of draws seen in 17/18 and 18/19 wont continue, i just wouldnt be surprised if the % of drawn games increased in 2019/20. It depends on number of goals scored (ie more goals = less draws). 17/18 and 18/19 had average goals per game 2.70 (2.38 in 16/17). Even when this average has been achieved in previous seasons the draw percentage hasn’t been as low which makes me think even more that 17/18 and 18/19 are outliars. Personally for this season i am going to seperate out portugal from any other leagues and run any strategies on lower stakes. i should point out that this is my first time with Ultimate so take or leave the above, though most of it is stats anyway.

  36. Just been playing around with the original leagues database a bit more after watching Ian’s new video today and came across something that I’ll be watching for the upcoming season (I won’t be betting it because I already have enough on the go to get started with).

    -All Leagues except Bundesliga
    *Home team odds 2.51 to 3.5
    *Away team odds 2.51 to 3.5
    *Home team colour: Amber
    *Away team colour: Amber or Red

    91.25pts from 473 bets. Avg odds backed 3.34, worst losing runs in there were a -14, a -10 and a couple of -8s.

    12/13 14.74 from 54 bets
    13/14 11.59 from 63 bets
    14/15 18.17 from 74 bets
    15/16 7.52 from 80 bets
    16/17 -0.76 from 72 bets
    17/18 16.03 from 78 bets
    18/19 23.98 from 72 bets

  37. For anyone looking at the Seminar LTD systems, the traffic lights weren’t part of the sheet in 2015, but you can use them to tweak slightly now:

    Home Shorties: removing Grey and Red homes adds 18 points.

    Strong Away: removing Green homes is 62 bets less for the same profit.

    Two very logical filters.

  38. New member, just a small system,appreciate any feedback
    Premier Lge Top 6 v Top 6
    Man City,Liverpool,Chelsea,Man Utd,Arsenal,Spurs
    Full Traffic light
    Lay Away
    30 Bets per season
    7 seasons 210 bets= 38.74 pts
    A couple of seasons showed small returns ie Man city dominate 2017/18 and Leicester 2015/2016,

  39. HI ALL.






  40. Check out Home odds between 2 and 4 and remove red and grey. Look at back draw / Lay away. I believe one of Ian’s videos covers something very similar.

  41. Hi All, New to this so all thoughts appreciated. All tweaked from sample systems or from ideas above. I was going to run all from 1 125pt bank however given the lays is this advisable or best to split? Cheers

    Main Leagues
    System 1
    Type: Back Home & LTD
    Leagues: Serie A, La Liga & Prem
    Home Odds: Equal to & Under 1.5
    Draw Odds: Equal to & Under 10
    Home Difference: Equal to & Over 2
    Home Colour Index: Amber & Green
    Overall Return: 44.71 & 199.60
    Overall Bets: 361
    Average Return: 6.38 & 28.5
    Average Bets: 52

    New Leagues
    System 2
    Type: Back Home & Lay Away
    Leagues: Championship & Ligue 1
    Home Odds: Equal to & Under 2
    Away Odds: Equal to & Under 6
    Home Colour Index: Amber
    Away Colour Index: Amber & Red
    Overall Return: 21.16 & 105.40
    Overall Bets: 231
    Average Return: 7.05 & 35.13
    Average Bets: 77

    System 3

    Type: LTD
    Leagues: Portugal & Turkey
    Home Odds: Equal to & Under 1.7
    Draw Odds: Equal to & Under 6
    Home Colour Index: Amber, Green and Grey
    Overall Return: 84.75
    Overall Bets: 271
    Average Return: 28.25
    Average Bets: 90

  42. Hi all, Im still formulating what I will be doing this season but it will be a couple of systems and a watching brief on others. As a new ultimate member, could anyone offer advice on the following please; just trying to pre-empt potential issues.

    For the new leagues in particular some games will be fairly illiquid Friday morning and when trying to lay near the quoted back price Im thinking how high I should go. Example, system is laying the draw when 6 or less, it was 5.8 but now lay price is 6.4 and therefore outside of my odds bracket. Conscious if I start omitting bets on these grounds things might get sticky, and the flip side of that would be including games that now qualify but didn’t on Friday. Im sure that’s not the way to go. I might be over thinking it and the steams/drifts even out over a season.

    Also system overlap. Example, a LTD system across 3 leagues, including prima, and another system that LTD on top 4 prima teams when at home. If I have systems that clash, is the advice to effectively do both or omit one. Not sure this will be a problem for me, but any rules of thumb on overlap appreciated.


  43. Mervyn if a bet qualifies for multiple systems it should be bet as such , 1 point per system or whatever the staking is, re prices, verything I do has a 10% margin in so if you cannot lay at 5.0 for example put it in to get matched and if not matched by KO have a check and go max 5.5, the odds will move in your favour post KO and I know some put the price in to get matched in-play

  44. Gurds,

    If you change Home colour index to just Green and Amber this reduces bets by 47 and only roughly 4pts lost.

    Would this be worth it?

  45. anyone elses head pickled with the spread sheet ( in a nice way ) ?
    i think i neeed 4 or 5 systems MAX and see them through

    ATM ive decided on 3

    How many are you going to run ?

  46. Guys i am still playing around with systems and taking Ians advise am finding some solid 10 – 15 point systems per season on the main database. Problem is they all seem to be lay systems. Any pointers on finding solid home back ones as i don’t want to too reliant on all lays or is it ok to ?
    Just want to get off on the right foot tbh

  47. Yes Lyndon, a lot to take in when new to this. Trying to work a way forward but would appreciate any help from those experienced please. Think I will start with the main leagues, to ensure liquidity and 3 or 4 sample approaches there to be getting on with. Thank you

  48. Danny – great tweaking there. Thanks and as you say very logical additional filters.

  49. I’ve been umming and ahhing over this one all day and don’t know if I should include it in my portfolio or not. For anyone who’s watched video 10 on FTS Ultimate, Ian comes across a possible back homes strategy that could do with a bit more investigation. I had a further look and what I came up with looks good but it relies on home wins at large odds e.g. C Palace (11.50) v Man City or Girona (10.50) v Barcelona. I do not have any backing strategies at the moment and would like to add one so I’d be grateful to know people’s opinion on this system?

    The max drawdown is quite low, -11.38 and it averages 18 points a season (128.27points total) over 315 bets
    Original Leagues database
    English Prem, La Liga, Bundesliga 1
    BF Odds, Draw between 4 and 6
    Difference, Away, filter by colour, red
    Home, colour index, amber, red
    Away, colour index, green, red

  50. Need a bit of help please..

    On a Back and Lay the Draw system
    My Liability will be up to £50 for the Lay
    so what…. Back Stake should i use please ?

  51. Hi all,
    I’m a new member to ultimate and have come up with a couple of strategies for the season.
    My question is what do people do if the odds move by KO Saturday and would now fit the criteria for your strategy. Do you place the bet or not bearing in mind the database is based on the Friday morning prices.

  52. Just a quick question, would you use larger stakes for smaller systems, eg 30 bets= 10pt return

  53. This is all down to people’s attitude to risk but with a few lay the draw systems in a portfolio the liability can get quite high, what would your max liability be compared to your bank? 40 to 50 points maximum? For example, the three seminar 2015 systems, on certain weekends, have had a 40 point liability for a 100 point bank.

  54. Ciao all,
    Looks like a bunch of you have some winning strategies for this season. I’ve been taking some of what’s posted and tweaking it. But I don’t know how to calculate the drawdown? any help?

  55. Hi, would like some advice on trading LTD from any seasoned traders who make this work please. I have emailed Ian but in the mean time if anyone could give me their thoughts it would be greatly appreciated. Im currently using the FDD sheets to come up with a short list.

    1)Im finding being stringent on too many factors is eliminating nearly everything from my list. Other than price, what would the 3 most important factors be I should concentrate on?

    2)Do people compare season data versus last 6 games data and if so how do you weight these?

    3)I see on the pdf, some games Ian gives 15 mins for a team to score a second before taking profit, others 30, Im judging this on price at the moment, but any more sophisticated methodology would be useful.

    Infact, although my trading plan caters for all scenarios, it is a one size fits all approach and Im struggling to differentiate matches to create plans that vary according to the specifics of the match. Ive searched high and low on google but cant find any sensible material. If anyone has any worthwhile links or pdfs they are willing to share please email me on
    Hope that’s ok to post my email Ian, if not please edit. Thanks in-advance for any pointers

  56. The new addition quick look to the database looks fantastic . But surely the ROI for lay the draw is about 8% . Correct me if I’m wrong. Regards

  57. Hi Mervyn

    When you talk about LTD why don’t you follow the Ian LTD Main selections. I would paper trade them first and make sure you comfortable with all the outcomes in trading eg red cards, or away team scores first.

    Another way if you use FDD there is a beginners LTD with the criteria you could try and tweak that.

    LTD is a very broad area it depends exactly what you are looking for.

  58. hello
    how i can save my strategies? on the database with a button

  59. Hello guys,

    I have a quick question for you, especially for the more experienced ones:

    Premier League, Lay the Draw when home team is between 1.11 and 1.50 produces 82.15 points since the start, without any filters.
    I’ve noticed that two values are big losers over the long run, odd of 1.20 (-18.35p) and 1.25 (-22.40p).
    Would you recommend cutting those two specific odds or should we just let them in the big group as it may return to normal values?
    For me it seems as they should be cut, but I wonder if this will be extremely specific?

  60. It’s extremely specific, its like not betting on monday night or friday night football. For example one of the losses in the 1.20 range was the draw between Man City and Hull and that season Hull were relegated again same thing in 2017 Man Utd drew against Hull who again were relegated
    These strange results will always happen, if your system is stable then it will profit long term regardless of these results.
    Maybe you should look at more filters, for example simply by selecting Home Colour as Green you reduce 150 or so games and increase profit by 7points

  61. System 1 looks good but as a newbie are you comfortable in laying on odds upto 10? the results show the maximum was 9 so risking £80 to win £9.50 (5% betfair commission). Also is it worth backing the home? It’s small and consistent wins but you are backing as low as 1.13 and maximum 1.48

    System 2 looks good – again is it worth backing home?

    System 3 if you also deselect Grey from Home colour index you only lose 5 points and get 23 matches less but I personally like to use a colour in the home and away index as its a good form indicator

    End of the day its upto you based on your risk , important to be consistent and not change filters mid season

  62. Question – When our daily sheets come out on a Friday and Tuesday, is the “Betfair odds” column odds the current back odds or lay odds? I have based these on being back odds.

    Also if this is the back odds does this not mean that the lay odds (which most of my systems are (LTD and LTA) are always going to be at least 0.2 higher and the overall results this sheet produces is slightly inaccurate? as losses should be slightly higher.

  63. Incorporated the system Gurds, going really well so far !! Thanks.

  64. Hi all
    I am a new member and have been watching the videos and created a system that I would like to share for your thoughts and any possible improvements. It is a home back system and the filter settings are as follows.
    League = Serie A
    Home odds between 1.7 and 3.3
    Home difference greater or equal to -10
    Draw difference less than or equal to 5
    Home form between .5 and 2.0
    Home colour green and red.
    175 bets for 61 points.

    1. Why not also LTD , odds are low and give you another 50 odd points.

  65. Do You have a live strategies? for goal in live.
    is possible use the same database or not?
    if i have a lot of strategies , what is the method for calculate the good risk for trade?

  66. For someone new you’ve done a great job there with the diff angles.
    All very solid. Is safe as houses to run those 3 off the 1 bank of 125pts, bulletproof.

    no chance you will lose, you will win for sure. You can even do a bank a lot less than 125pts for those 3 considering those 3 will give you only around 220 bets a season roughly. Depends on your tolerance to risk.

  67. I’ve been playing with this system a little bit more this morning. If you add:

    BF Odds, Home, is greater than or equal to 4

    this brings the bets down to 174, and the points up slightly to 134.43, strike rate of 25% and a max drawdown of -11

  68. Hi,

    I am going to run two systems this season. One on the Main League database. The second on the New League database.
    ”Less is more” and I am going to stick to that.

    Going to follow couple of systems without including them into my portfolio for learning purposes.

    Good luck to everyone! Believe in yourself!

  69. Cheers Gurds.
    I have also added a top v top small system in and will run with those 4 for this season.
    Comments much appreciated and GL with the new season.

  70. Hi Chris – My concern with this system would be 90pts of the c130 came from 2 seasons however its also only had one losing season so you could maybe have a great year with it or just about break even. Given that the loss season was last season maybe that edge has gone?? Would be good to get others thoughts on this to see what factors they consider when a system like this is more up and down.

    If you do decide to run with it you could add a home filter of over 1.7 and reduce some bets without reducing the overall points.

    GL mate

  71. Hi Mr. Matt,

    be careful – beginners LTD is for trading (read the manual in the beginners section).
    You lay the draw pre match and then trade the position as explained.

    I was new last year and started with only one system (in the Original League) plus the Half Time Correct Score lay selections from Ian. Less is more because once you have decided what you will do, you should stick to it through the full season – through good and bad times – kind of like an marriage.

    Use systems that are not to complicated and show steady results (so swings don’t effect you to much). Make sure you don’t overload your work with to much – you have to keep doing it through the full season. There are maybe holidays, travels, events you have not much time, work on weekends, “English weeks” with games to pick on Tuesday, etc.

    Before you start watch all videos – if necessary several times. Everything is explained and shown very well. You need to put the work into it … it pays.

    All the best, Klaus

    P.S. don’t write all in capitol letters !!! Some people hate so see that.

  72. Oh I forgot you question. When you have a system it shows the full results of all last seasons. Go to the “season” column (it is usually the first one called “A”) and delete everything but the season you want to see … then you get the results from that season.
    Watch the videos … you will see how everything works.

  73. Hi Carl / or anyone else that knows the answer

    How do you do the home difference ….. equal to and over 2


  74. Hi Carl, thanks for the response. Yes two seasons have made the majority of the points so it looks like every now and then you’d get a great season because there’s been more football upsets than usual but as there’s so few bets per season that wouldn’t mean as much and looking over the longer term would be better.

    I’ve been looking at the some figures and it has average winning odds of 7.82 which requires a strike rate of 13%, a lot less than than the actual strike rate of 25% It looks good to me but yeah it would be great to get more thoughts from others.

  75. Hi Vic,

    If you filter on main leagues column M, click the filter then choose number filters option and select greater than or equal to 2.

    Ian covers it in some videos also you are still struggling.

    Cheers and GL

  76. Hi everyone,
    Could anybody give me the filters for the championship sample system on the new league database? Long story but I can’t access the actual spreadsheet atm but just want to check if tonights champ game qualifies, thanks.

  77. I think that because Home is amber or grey, then all Championship matches where the away is under 6, qualify this weekend!

  78. thanks paul, are they the only filters? Because of my situation I can’t actually click the macro button but can filter myself, I remember it being around 80 points profit but I can’t seem to get that with home amber or grey and away under 6?

  79. ‘@Ian

    do you recommend following your system bets this weekend or leave them until the season starts properly ?

  80. If they are up they are up, the only confirmed system bets on sheets are 3 seminar ones, all the others are samples for people to choose to follow or use as a bais for their own, if they choose to follow them and they qualify they should bet them

  81. Laurie, full filters for the Championship sample are Betfair odds less than 6, Home colour – Amber and Grey only, Away colour Green, Grey and Red only.
    81.53pts from 396
    I’m playing this, make it every match is a Away Lay

  82. Thanks Carl… I,ve managed to suss it out.. should help me going forward … good luck

  83. Hi Alec,
    Back from Hols, anyway I’ve had a look at your system let me see if i got this
    Bundesliga – Lay Away team
    Home Odds 1.61 – 1.90
    Home Index : Amber, Red
    Away Index : Amber, Green, Red
    From filtering this i get 156 bets with a 59.00 return.
    Season 1 = -0.70
    Season 2 = 17.30
    Season 3 = 0.85
    Season 4 = -5.25
    Season 5 = 6.45
    Season 6 = 23.75
    Season 7 = 16.60
    18 bets where the Away odds are 6.00 and above of which are all successful bets with a 17.70 return.
    If you set Away odds to 4.8-6.80( which is the top away odds with this system ) then the bets reduce to 124 bets from 156 with a one point increase ( 60.75 ).

  84. Hi All
    Does anyone here or anyone plan on doing home shorty backs only . I understand you have only got the one result on your side . Several leagues look pretty tidy for this .Maybe you could operate this with a 25 /30point bank ? Any input welcome
    Cheers Damon

  85. Does everyone use Betfair,i was thinking of using Betdaq as commission is less. Any thoughts or reasons not to.

  86. Depends on the leagues. Liquidity is sometimes an issue and there are often bigger gaps in the odds. They are offering 0% from Friday to Sunday in August I notice.

  87. If you can get the price and liquidity, why not. I get 2% on Betfari currently so no big deal. SMarkets too, but same 2% and liquidity etc.

  88. Hello, I have 2 games this weekend to bet on, I wasn’t able to access the odds sheet till the evening and the odds drifted from 5 to 6 to lay should i go inplay and wait for 5.5?

  89. Yeah its above your risk level then let it go inplay and wait for your preferred odds but then there is always the risk of an early goal.

  90. Hi Jamie, I think I know the game to which you are referring. To be honest, I wasn’t comfortable betting that far out of the range, (I think it went off at 6.4?) so I set it to keep in play at 5.8. The goal went in early and as it turned out, was an easy win. It’s a tricky one to answer as a lot of it has to be down to what you are comfortable with and the element of bad luck plays it’s part if there is an early goal. I remember a game last season involving Juventus where the draw odds had absolutely flown out, I placed the bet at the higher odds and it ended a draw which was quite hard to swallow. But then, that system still ended well in profit.

  91. Must be the Gent game you guys were referring to. I was on myself there lay the draw and the goal went in straight away and they won 6-1.

    What I like to do when laying is to sprinkle the orders about, lets say for example you are laying the draw for £200. Current market price is say 6, you can sprinkle 5 lay bets of £40 some at market price some lower down, this way you can get a better avg price if market drops. If market goes up in some cases you may have got the lower bets matched before it drifts.

  92. there has to be a point where any profit from a season will go though if prices taken are higher than prices at 8am Friday. If you system makes 10 – 15 points in a season and you have 150 bets in the season, and 15 lose but you had to take 1 point higher odds on those 15, you system no longer wins.

    Yes, some of the bets you take higher odds on will win so no difference on these, but it is the losers that add up.

    Ian always says price is the biggest thing. If it was 5 and it went out to 6 then maybe the value has gone, win or lose, on that bet.

    Just be careful about taking odds that are way above. I think Ian said he has 5-10% give.

    Always hard to let a loser go, and the fear that will also make a system into a losing one by missing the winners.

    As someone above said, Juve last year shot out from about 6 to around 10 I think, and it was a draw. That would wipe a lot off most systems, but one winner is one point.

    Just use some common sense.

  93. Hi All,
    As i like messing around with pivot tables thought i would just put this up, its Top teams at home from the 4 leagues with DRAW Odss <= 8.00 and this is what i got
    Bayern Munich
    All Index colours
    48 Bets = 21.10

    Man City
    Home Index :Amber,Green
    Away Index:Amber, Red
    72 Bets = 25.90

    Home Index:Amber
    Away Index:Amber,Green,Red
    32 Bets= 15.45

    Chelsea, surprisingly they lost a massive 31.95 points!

    Man Utd, lost 4.05 points

    Liverpool, another massive loss of 41.30 points

    Home Index:Amber,Green
    Away Index:Amber,Green,Red
    119 Bets=30.55 points

    Altetico Madrid
    Home Index:Amber,Green
    Away Index:Red
    42 Bets=27.10 points

    Home Index:Green
    Away Index:Amber,Green,Red
    39 Bets=11.85 points

    Real Madrid
    Home Index:Amber,Green
    Away Index:Amber,Red
    43 Bets=14.10 points

    AC MIlan
    Home Index:Amber,Grey,Red
    Away Index:Green,Grey,Red
    39 Bets=25.50 points

    Home Index:Green,Grey
    Away Index:Green,Grey,Red
    58 Bets=43.80 points

    Inter lose 26.15 points

    Home Index:Amber,Grey
    Away Index:All Colours
    32 Bets=14.85

    230.20 pts for 524 bets over the last 7 seasons

    Im not advocating this is a system, just a left-field angle, an example of thinking outside of the box. Other teams i found and this is without any colour index filtering are
    Hannover 30.70 pts
    Mgladbach 18.15 pts
    Stuttgart 18.40 pts
    C Palace 30.15 pts
    Newcastle 31.90 pts
    Rayo Vallecano 34.90 pts
    Sevilla 26.75 pts
    Lazio 27.05 pts

    Obviously these can amount to alot of bets, although by filtering further this can be reduced. Stressing again, im not using these its just a search example of what can be found

  94. Back again with another angle, these are the results from setting the DRAW odds at <=6.00 and HOME Odds of 1.33, 1.39, 1.49, 1.73, 2.10, 3.40, 3.70, 3.75, 4.40, 4.70.
    Both Indexes are set at Amber,Green and Red.
    This has been done by creating a Pivot with ALL the HOME odds vs ALL the DRAW odds up to and including 6.00, this is known as drilling down into the banded odds as per current Pivot table .
    2012/2013 70 bets = 28.35
    2013/2014 75 bets = 26.85
    2014/2015 71 bets = 43.75
    2015/2016 83 bets = 40.45
    2016/2017 61 bets = 29.85
    2017/2018 62 bets = 41.55
    2018/2019 68 bets = 28.30

    Total of 490 bets across 7 seasons with a return of 239.10. If you wanted to you could add BACK Home to accompany the LTD as it returns 62.80
    As mentioned in the previous post i am not using this, its an illustration that using a pivot and the database you can really get into the guts of it all by drilling down and creating a bespoke system whether that be teams, odds or colour indexes

  95. LTD Portugal

    Draw less or equal to 6.6
    Home odds less or equal to 5.8 + excluding 1.89 – 2.50 + excluding 1.41 – 1.51
    FTS Odds Draw less or equal to 7
    All colors vs All colors
    Total profit for three season : 122.25
    2016/2017 : 30.44
    2017/2018 : 42.31
    2018/2019 : 49.50
    Total bets : 301

  96. Hindsight would say no grey as a filter. Common sense probably too, although it has made decent profit on grey games, that all went this opening day. Probably best to leave the grey next season now.

  97. Yeah you’re probably right. Would’ve been nice to start the season without a 15 point loss.

  98. Hi Carlos , your a right with the figures , not sure what i did tbh, appreciate you coming back to me. I will keep plugging away. Been looking for a steady home back system also but as yet i have not found one. Cheers

  99. Hi,
    I will be in Australia for three weeks in December. Unfortunately, in-play betting is forbidden there. Tried with a VPN last December, but in vain. Do we have any Aussies on here, who knows how to work around this issue?

  100. Great Setting Igor. If you take our the games in May in each season, then it improves a little the total profit and decreases the number of games to 272.

  101. Hi All,
    great to read other peoples thoughts as i am a new member and my usual style would be to trade which i shall carry on with but keep the FTS as a separate thing thing altogether.
    i have been messing about with the database but not got as far as using the traffic lights etc.
    this system is a bit of a tweak on one of Ians saved systems but seems to look ok.

    lay away team when Juventus, Athletico, Barca, Bayern, Liverpool or Man City are at Home………………..
    last season……….112 bets……….47.4 . pts
    last 2 seasons…..224 bets………115.95 pts
    last 3 seasons…..336 bets………138.95 pts

    I tried this same system for last season but only laying at 7 or under and it returned
    14.9 pts for 19 bets
    I know its a very basic system but it seems to return very long winning runs.

  102. Not a bad idea Nicholas. I think that would work just fine. Someone mentioned VPS today, must look into it too.

  103. On the look out for a new laptop for this coming season. Thinking of spending £300 to £400. Any recommendations would be greatly appreciated.

  104. Jorgen – I used CyberGhost when in Singapore and Hong Kong, and it worked fine.

  105. Hi Guys

    ive just been playing with prem opening fixture list and looking at a different angle – goals…historically how many goals are scored when the teams are withing certain odds ranges

    When liverpool @ home 4.0 …21/35 over 2.5 gls = 60%
    Bournmouth >2.00 …11/16 over 2.5gls = 69%
    Burnley >2.5 -3.0 …8/25 over 2.5 gls = 32%
    Palace >2.5 – 3.5 …5/20 over 2.5 gls = 25%
    Watford >2.25 …10/18 over 2.5 gls = 55%
    Spuds 2-2.5 …7/27 over 2.5 gls = 26%
    Newcastle >4-5 …8/10 over 2.5 gls = 80%
    Man U >2-2.5…9/25 over 2.5 gls= 36%

    if we were to back over >70% and unders on sides <30 %

    we back overs in

    Liverpool @ 1.5
    Newcastle @1.8

    Unders in

    Palace @ 1.66
    Leicester @1.66

    or you could cross reference the implied odds against actual odds

    any thoughts on this approach ?

  106. Hi Carlos,
    Some good angles there. Using the home teams, you came up with, I tinkered around with them and came up with this:

    Eng Prem
    Arsenal, spurs, Man city
    Bf draw odds 6
    Home index amber & green
    208 bets
    lay draw 91.35 pts/ back home 22pts

    Barcelona, A Madrid, Sevilla, R Madrid Rayo Vallecano
    Bf home odds <= 2.4
    Bf draw odds <= 8
    Home index green & amber
    Away index amber & red
    No bets in May
    263 bets
    Lay draw 109.40 pts/back home 29.14 pts

    AC Milan, Lazio, Juventus
    Bf draw <= 8
    Home index no red
    Away index no amber
    No bets in April & May
    174 bets
    Lay draw 92.7 pts/ back home 15 pts

    B Munich, Mgladbach, Hanover, Stuttgart
    Bf draw <= 8
    Home index no amber
    226 bets
    Lay draw 90.95 pts/ back home 24.77 pts

    871 games over 7 seasons, averaging out at 124.4 per season
    Lay draw total pts 384.40
    Back home total pts 90.91
    Total points = 475.31
    Averaging out at 68 points per season

  107. Hi Carlos, that’s an interesting analysis. One question I have is that this appears to be a profitable and consistent system, but you say it’s not one you will be using. Can I ask why that is? Are there other factors that you’re considering when selecting a system?

  108. Hi Carlos, interesting analysis. I have one question though. This looks like a profitable and consistent system, but you say you won’t be using it. Can I ask why that is? Are there other things you’re considering when deciding on a system to use?

  109. Spanish La Liga

    Home vs Away True Odds Percentage Difference = between -76.30 and -51.50

    Home Win
    151 points staked
    264.74 points returned.
    +75.3% ROI.

  110. Hi all,
    New member here and I’ve been playing around with the Poisson data ready for when these start up to see what I can find.
    Something I noticed using Ian’s Home macro is that is you remove the Championship, France, Spain and Italy you reduce the number of bets from 126 to 49 but the return is pretty much identical.

    Been a tough start for me on Ultimate with the big boys in Spain having a few draws along with Portugal but its still early in the season. At what point do others review their systems and tweak or remove aspects that are not working?
    I was planning on just going with it and hoping it is just early season variance and it will balance itself out over the rest of the season but I am interested in the approach of others.



  111. Hello, anyone got the FTS half time CS lays selections for the first and second week of september 2019? i missed these 2 weeks and i can not download the keeprecord anymore. thanks

  112. Leeds have traded <1.75 on 15 occasions

    LTD 0/15 PNL + 13.30

  113. West Brom when 2.5 gls

    Sheff Wed >2.0 2.0 2.0

    Away side won 11/15 Back Away Pnl + 22.38

    Fulham 2.2 1.9

    LTD 5 31 games LTD PNL + 14.40

    Brum >2.5 <3.0

    3/22 LTD LTD Pnl + 10.10

  114. Not a strategy, but something I’ve found helpful –

    Although you can overfit to historic results, there are logical reasons for being cautious about the first and last months of the season. To be able to do a swift comparison of how various strategies perform at the edges, I’ve added 2 buttons at the top of the spreadsheet with macros attached – to take out August or take out May. Then you can run any macro you already have set up, flick swiftly between different scenarios and draw your own conclusions.

  115. Hi Lads…. I,m new to using excel , can anyone tell me how to filter months of the year… thanks.

  116. Click on date filter then on the arrow next to reah year. You can then filter the months from there. Hope thats clear enough.

  117. Hi All

    Regarding the systems starting date think with logic, if you have decided to start to bet in Aug then you should go for it don’t be cautious. If it fits your rules just place the trade and walk away you should not over think the situation.

    A system might look the perfect system but the week you start it might have two losses that’s just sods law, you have to carry on, if you are dwelling over the loss you are betting too big, stop and have a good think now, then reset and go again.

    This week I had two losses but Ive set my bank up properly again this year, so provided i keep doing the right things by my rules I intend to win again.


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