We’ve now covered basic sports offers (free bets) and slot offers, the final major type of offer I want to cover are sports refund offers. In a nutshell this is where we can place a bet on a certain match or event and if our bet is a loser we get it refunded IF a specific criteria is fulfilled. For simplicity sake I will use football examples in this article but you get these kinds of offers for all different sports.
Some common examples of the kind of offers around are “refund on all losing correct score bets if the match finishes 0-0”, “refund on all losing 1st goalscorer bets if your selected player scores the 2nd goal” and so on.
To take advantage of these offers we try to find as close a match as possible between the bookmakers back odds and the betfair lay odds on the qualifying market and we place a matched bet i.e. back with the bookie, lay on betfair for a small loss. We then hope that our bet loses and the refund conditions are met during the match giving us the refund. Sometimes the refund will be cash, other times it will be in the form of a free bet which we can use to lock in a profit using the standard free bet strategy.
As with the slot offers the key here is to work out the value of an offer beforehand so you know if it’s worth doing or not. To work out the value we need to know roughly what the chances are for the refund trigger to happen as well as what our qualifying cost is likely to be. The first example I mentioned above (0-0 correct score refund) is quite a low value one because the odds of a match finishing 0-0 are usually high so the vast majority of times you won’t get any return.
Below is an example of a high value refund offer that was available on Saturday’s Man utd vs Liverpool match (you will always get better offers on the bigger matches):
Ladbrokes £25 refund on all losing match result bets if both teams score.
First we look at the chances of the refund trigger happening, the price for both teams to score on betfair was around 2.0 so that implies a 50% chance of the refund coming in. Next we look at what kind of price match we can get on the qualifying bet in the match result market. In this case the best possible match was on Man utd to win however as we need the bet to lose in order to get the refund I placed my qualifier on the draw as that was a less likely result. I was able to back the draw on Ladbrokes at 3.3 and lay the draw on betfair at 3.45. Next we input the data into the matched betting calculator (http://www.matchedodds.co.uk/matched-betting-calculator/) as shown below:
It tells us that if we bet £25 at 3.3 at Ladbrokes we need to lay £24.26 at 3.45 on betfair and that will give us a fixed loss of £1.95 regardless of the outcome. We know we have roughly a 50% chance of hitting the refund and in this case the refund will be in the form of a £25 free bet. We can usually retain around 80% of the value of a free bet using the standard free bet strategy covered in the first post I did so in this example we’ve essentially got a 50% chance of getting a £20 return and it’s cost us £1.95 to get into this situation. Hopefully you can see the value in this!
In this instance the game finished 3-1 so both teams scored and our back bet at ladbrokes lost meaning that we got the refund. I used the standard strategy to cash out the free bet and got £19.39 from it so minus the £1.95 qualifying bet cost the total profit for the offer was £17.44.
Hopefully all of the above makes sense, refund offers can have all sorts of different triggers and parameters but the principle is always the same, work out the qualifying costs vs the probability of the refund coming in and that will tell you whether it’s a valuable offer or not. As always if you have any questions then fire away in the comments.
Next week I will post a review of the matched betting service that I’m a member of for those that are interested in taking it more seriously and after that I will start posting some offers every few days that will allow us to build up a betting bank with no risk.