Laying the Draw Pre-Match Critera

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The Criteria I will supply you with for the Lay The Draw Pre-Match Selections is as follows.

You can work it out using free resources such as football statistics sites (e.g. Soccerstats.com) or results sites or you can join FTS Football Data or FTS Football Data Advanced and be able to shortlist your selections in minutes as well as research other systems in over 28 leagues and all the main markets.

I like to use League selections to restrict my number of bets. By restricting leagues I apply a method to, I automatically narrow down the number of games I can trade and this then prevents me from making one of the big mistakes in betting; over trading, or not having a plan on what games to get involved with.

So Using FTS Football Data I use the Leagues stated in the box below ⬇️

FTS HELPFUL HINT:- It always pays at the end of each season to check your strategy criteria and league-by-league performance. You should keep immaculate betting records of every bet you place and its return. That is how you know if you are on track. You can then tweak the prices you enter at and the leagues you operate in

We want what I call the Goal Ratio to be higher than 2.0. This can be worked out again using any football results site or is available instantly on all FTS Football Data Sheets.

The Goal ratio is the sum of all Home and Away Goals scored and conceded in the last 6 games of each team.

So if Tottenham are playing Arsenal we find the last 6 results of each team

Tottenham have scored 11 and conceded 10
Arsenal have scored 5 and conceded 12

We have 6 games of each team so 12 games in all have generated 38 goals

It is simply 11 + 10 + 5 + 12 = 38 divide by 12 games

38/12 = 3.166 or 3.17 in round numbers

These teams in the previous 6 games are generating a goal ratio of 3.17 goals

If this figure is less than 2.0 we want to remove the game. Low-scoring games are not good for laying the draw, so we want teams to be generating goals.

The next criteria item is Home Back Odds 5 Minutes Pre KO – we want the home team to be 1.7 or less pre kick off. Home wins account for the most results in football and we want to have a strong home favourite. Simply, they score more goals and win more games, so we want them on our side.

We then want a max Lay Draw price of 6.0 again 5 minutes pre KO. You could extend this bigger if you wished. It is all about your attitude to risk.

Note: We have BetAngel files that allow you to bot these checks if you would like to, and many members do. Please see here: https://ftsincome.co.uk/bet-angel-files/

I am not happy losing more than 5 points on a losing game, so I set my max at 6.0 and stick to it. I know my risk tolerance and I know I can profit long term. If you LAY the draw at bigger prices, you need more wins, you will have greater variance and bigger drawdowns, all that is factored in before we place a bet.

So our criteria, in summary, is as below:

Leagues – Column DDanish Superligaen, English Championship, English Premier League, English League One, Portugese Primera, Italian Serie A, Japanese J-League, Norwegian Tippaligaen, Spanish Primera Division, Spanish Segunda Division, Turkish Super Lig
Goal Ratio ALL>2.0
Home Back Odds<=1.70
Draw LAY Odds<=6.0
Over 2.5 Back odds<2.0
BTTS YES Back Odds>1.5

The below image shows the pre-match criteria for the Ipswich game using FTS Football Data where I have everything I need.

The Match is in English League One
The Goal Ratio is Greater than 2.0
The Home Team odds are less than 1.7
The Draw Odds are less than 6.0
BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals are both where we need them (also shown in the sheets)

Using the FTS Data sheets I can find qualifying games in minutes each day, it will take a bit longer manually – but still very doable and that’s how I started out.

You can also see Ipswich are 2nd in the League with Cambridge 10th a bit more research showed they had only drawn one of the last 7 at home and that was to Barnsley who were in the Top 4 themselves. Ipswich had one of their last 6 Home games against lower sides.

The Result

If you adopt this fixed odds set and forget method, I recommend you place every bet that qualifies for you based on your research and attitude to risk. We do not know when winners will come and fall and when our loss is potentially -5.0 points, we do not want to be missing too many winners and affecting our strike rate.

As you progress with your understanding, you may want to start filtering games to improve your strike rate.

Extra Refinement

Over the years I have started to look across the following areas to cement my bet, strategy. Remember, we are not doing this for fun but to win money and we want to give ourselves the best chance possible.

Areas of games I look at are:

  • – I prefer strong home favourites – (I will get involved with away favourites but it is not my preference)
  • – Over Under Markets – is Over 1.5 / 2.5 goals favoured 
  • – Current Form 
  • – Home/Away Form 
  • – League Position & Performance – I tend to break this into fifths. For example, Man City playing Nottingham Forest. Man City are in the Top 4 so a Class 1 team for my ratings, Forest are a newly promoted team so a Class 5 team for my ratings. I would look at how Man City performed against all my class 5 rated teams over the course of a few years. Spurs, my own team for example, have been a Class 1/2 team for the last 3/4 years but perform better at home against Class 2 and 3 teams than they do Class 4 or 5 teams. I hope you get the idea.
  • – Goal Timings of both teams – scored and conceded 
  • – Importance of game – have both teams got something to play for, relegation and promotion battles, and dead rubbers at end of season
  • – Team News & expected formation – will teams sit back and play for a 0-0 
  • – First Half/Second Half Performance 
  • – Discipline records 
  • – Referee

The list is not exhaustive and you can add or remove factors as you see fit depending on their importance to you

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