The Odds Sheets and the Database

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You will receive two odds sheets updated each week on this site. These will have the 8.00am Betfair prices as of Friday morning or Tuesday morning. They will have the FTS prices and value figures either positive or negative.

We also have True Odds (this is the overround margin removed proportionally across the BF odds), which enables a true implied percentage chance of each outcome to be shown. We can then look at the exact difference between the implied percentages and add it to our system building. 

For example, teams with a similar implied percentage chance Home v Away may offer BACK the DRAW possibilities.

We also have the Pinnacle Closing Price & Value columns, and returns for all outcomes to those prices. By incorporating these in your system building you can follow the money of teams being backed between odds sheet release and KO and determine if there is any value of backing teams decreasing in odds from publish time to KO or laying teams that are moving away from the initial odds. My experience tells me there is value in following this strategy in a planned manner.

We also have the “book percentage” which is key – the further away from 100% this is the less accurate that market and you will bet at unfavourable prices.

By searching the database and using filters you can seek out methods that may make profit. You then simply apply those criteria to the upcoming fixtures and place your bets.

Stick to methods – do not chop and change week in week out or month in month out. Sort a couple of methods in July/August and commit to them for the season or multiple seasons. Football is predictable over time but in one week any result can happen.

Make sure your methods suit you, if you don’t like long losing runs look at shorter prices, not long prices. It must be your plan.

The main database covering Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A has 7-season data and over 14000 games to research.

Check your profit was not just one freak season. I like steady profits, accepting that they may have one bad year.

Profit figures per season over 6 seasons of 12, 14, 15, -3, 12, 12 would still appeal to me irrespective of the season it lost 3 points. I accept that happens. At my stage of betting, I want 8-10 of these systems, that AVERAGE 10 points or so each season, which is then an AVERAGE 80-100 points a season. For you, you should start with just 1 or 2 systems to get going – this is a marathon, not a sprint!

The second database covering Belgian Premier, Turkey Super League, English Championship, Bundesliga 2, Portugal Primeira and Dutch Eredivisie has 6 seasons of full data and again over 14000 games. It has great profit potential, operate it the same way and the data will get stronger year on year.

Do not be too greedy early on. Do Not spread yourself too thin.

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