Pick Your Spots

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Pick Your Spots

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19/11/2013

A comment on my post last week

Ian,
Thanks for the post –
I’d like to hear your thoughts and or actions on selections of football and racing when you have conflicting data.
As an example:- a advised lay on a horse from the Racing Advisory conflicts with a back on the SB or ratings – do you go with the lay or look for the higher payout on a back, or a combination of both? I don’t have an opinion on horses other than the grey ones look nicer than the brown :-)

Is it wrong to form an ‘opinion’ from the available stats on inplay markets? I try to look at in play games that predict a[nother] goal and look at odds accordingly and use an analogy that Form and Value should equal a Profit. I’d be interested to hear you thoughts on this.

I think I already know what you are going to say but …….. Dori

 

I will tackle each in turn. The problem of conflicting data is one that does arise when following numerous horse racing systems and can lead to either a back and lay of the same selection advised or too many selections for the one race in a  backing sense that no profit would be made. I tend to go with what would provide me with the best return should it come in. Laying the horse on one account whilst backing it on another is totally pointless in my opinion, it is probably just best left if you are the sort of person who worries about making the wrong choice, you back it only to see it lose or lay it to see it hose in as the law of sod takes over.

Dori knows me having met me at the roadshow in the summer and again this weekend at the System Builder seminar at the NEC so has an idea how I bet. Firstly I do not have to have a bet, I can take a view just to leave the race and see what happens. Unlike most I do not crave every bet I see. If feeling the necessity or value was there I would look at the backing option and then at backing the bigger prices only. Alternatively I would prioritise the importance I place on my methods, if for example it was a choice between System Builder and Horse Racing Advisory, System Builder would win the day and is where I would place my money in the grand scheme of things if having the edge ignoring the odd race off the race card or odd lay will not destroy me.

 

 

The second point  is trickier, in-play markets are for the most part very accurate but I personally feel (and know) if you pick your spots value is to be found. I read a lot on the matter and people seem to spend hours pontificating over stats and spreadsheets that serve little purpose. Understanding how markets move in your chosen sports and what affects them is paramount to success.  Value will always lead to a profit, as for form etc of course games can go sharply against form. I recently layed the correct score in-play in Dortmund v Arsenal game as in my opinion the price was value at the time I entered. That was arrived at though on the basis of Dortmund and of course Arsenal have one shot on target in the 65th minute and score (always nice for a back up). I had no opinion on the game just on the prices available at that juncture. As long as you put value first and know you have an edge then you will profit. The markets in football particularly those with liquidity are an indicator of what is “predicted to happen” that of course is no means to say that it will and it can still be better to against the crowd in many instances. I have some glaring statistics of matches where the market is clearly driven by opinion and has got it wrong, of course they have to stay locked in my vault! People who think that some markets are not driven by opinion are in my belief wrong. Remember Betfair is still mostly human against human and we get it wrong a hell of a lot of the time. One of my biggest losses was when I “believed” Arsenal would score years ago in a Champions League match only for the crap opposition to get one corner and score from it. I have tended to leave opinion out of it since then as my opinion is, I have discovered, not that good!

I use several methods to pick my moments and of course do not share them all as that would only hinder myself. I think the view that it cannot be beat is an incorrect one it is how people look at it and make their decisions. I do think as a whole if you back and lay to a set method every game the odds of course will be about right and the chance of profit is next to nil, if you have the ability to cherry pick then you win over time. It is the same with most betting if you know when to bet and are disciplined you can do well. Charge in and bet everything then you will be consigned to the 99%.

I would never say I am always right but those of you who have been with me and seen me log into my P/L know I must do something right. Lots of people talk a good game and can have a flashy theory and spreadsheet, all I want is pounds, shillings and pence in the kicker other wise it is binned.

This leads me nicely into what we have coming on FTS which is a tool I now use everyday and I know some of you already use it. It is an unbelievable piece of football software, the like of which until this year I had never seen before. I have been working with the developer for some time now as he has added features based on my thoughts and his own vision. It is amazing and you will get the opportunity to trial it. I will have more details very soon and if you listen to one bit of advice that I give it should be to trial this software.

We had the System Builder Seminar at the weekend at the NEC and we have developed this into one amazing tool now with 13 pre loaded trends in the files that have generated over 790 points profit since 1st November 2012 and more to add going forward. I will have more details on this for those of you who missed out attending on Saturday on site as soon as is possible. I am dealing with those who attended Saturday first so that they can use the files and profit as advised. Like everything it is vital to understand how to use the tools. Those who don’t take that time, dive in, lose and then blame the tools. Both the ratings and system builder have seen my profits accelerate beyond my thoughts and I showed at the seminar on Saturday how a small tweak went from a £4000 loss to an £8000 profit for just one months selections at £100 a bet and as I write this that tweak has seen another winner at 14.5 just cross the line!

The seminars are finished for 2013 now but I will be holding a couple more early next year and details of those will be on site as soon as we can so that we can give you as much notice as possible. We will if possible hold another System Builder seminar further south, perhaps tie it in with some racing at Lingfield making use of their new business facilities at the new hotel.

 

A quiet week punting yet another international break, they are just a dull interlude for me and I don’t even look at the markets. Things resume this week and we can crack on and get the profits on football rolling in.

.

One Response

  1. Sorry Ian, I’ve just caught up with this and thanks for the reply.

    It’s valuable information and can I just add that if anyone is reading this and hasn’t had the chance to speak to Ian in person at a seminar then I’d venture you will never fully understand the methodology used in his betting. It took quite a while for the penny to drop for me but understanding the mindset needed is pretty hard to grasp and one that’s almost impossible to garner from reading blogs and studying spreadsheets full of bets [ hence the question]. If you get the chance to speak in person, then take it.

    Side note – I laid the Arsenal Dortmund U1.5 as well, on the basis that Dortmund had scored at home in something ridiculous like 59 [ maybe 58] of the last 60 matches AND the odds were decent. 1-0 to the Arsenal !
    Oh and finally if you went on the Summer seminars and have stopped using the CS lay method in the manual – take a visit back to it. It’s a gem! Used it non stop since September. Goldmine!

    Dori

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