World Cup Blog & Bets Day Twenty Seven (No Game Days 25 & 26)

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World Cup Blog & Bets Day Twenty Seven (No Game Days 25 & 26)

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08/07/2014

The quarter finals gave me a beating, only the trade of the 1-0 Argentina scoreline was of any merit on Saturday. I did not see the Holland game so no idea if they dominated the game and did not score or if Costa Rica over performed again. All the post match talk was of the goalkeeper substitution with Krul coming on for the penalties. It was an amazing decision and paid off. I can only feel that had it gone the other way Van Gaal would have been slated so you have to admire his courage. I am sure United fans were happy to see him not scared to make big decisions. (another element that seems to have been lacking in the England set up for about 20 years).

Today sees the first semi final and it is priced up tightly with Brazil just slight favourites. I am in line with the majority, I cannot split them and if someone held a gun to my head I would just edge with Brazil.

They will be without Silva and Neymar and whilst all the talk is of Neymar I think Silva is a bigger loss for them. The way they play, Jo or Willian can slot in and should be able to do a similar job. Dante who will replace Silva is a good player but Silva is a real leader for the hosts.

Since the first game Germany have been quiet yet progressed. France really did not press a team there for the taking and I think Brazil will not let Germany dictate the pace. Brazil played a physical game against Colombia and I think we can expect more of the same. Low is certainly expecting it having already called for the referee to be aware of the Brazilian physicality.

With the home crowd behind them and for me Germany just not quite firing on all cylinders with a few players being just too quiet I am not going to have a bet and will as I say hedge towards the hosts just nicking it.

 

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7 Responses

  1. Since you never saw the Holland v Costa Rica game Ian I will give you a quick review, the entire match was all about Goalkeepers. Costa Rica’s goalkeeper Keylor Navas was outstanding during the 90 minutes and stoppage time, he’s the kind of goalkeeper if he is playing for your side and you concede a corner you can just turn and talk to your mate in the stand because you know he is going to deal with it. His desire to come and get the ball either crosses or at Strikers feet was impressive, and his shot stopping skills were sensational, and another goalkeeper that may require a significant pay rise at his next contract negotiations.

    On to tonight.

    What is making this World Cup so hard to predict is that barring Hollands shock result against Spain in the first game none of the teams have put in a particularly outstanding all round performance, Germany have got through based on good old German efficiency lets face it if they score first tonight it is game over.

    Brazil have managed to be just a little bit better than the teams they have faced so far and they will struggle without Neymar and Silva, I can’t help but think they are carrying too many passengers in this one so I think Germany will once again find a way to not be brilliant but get the job done, and definitely if Germany score first Brazil can forget about it.

  2. Interesting that you too mention how brave Van Gaal’s decision was to substitute the goalkeeper for the penalties. I have only read comments in the same direction.
    I only fail to understand what the risk should have been. The live commentator of the game said, that the starting goalkeeper had a record of not saving a single one of his last 20 penalties. That alone would have been a valid argument to replace him, even if Krul’s record was not a lot better.
    And in comments about penalty shootouts there are basically only 2 types:
    1. praise on the goalkeeper as a hero if he saves only 1 and makes his team win. Then he is the matchwinner
    2. blame on the shooter who misses the decisive penalty and makes his team lose.
    In my opinion for the goalkeeper a penalty shootout is a proposition where he only can win. Nobody really expects him to save one but if he does he can easily gain hero status.
    For the shooter it’s the very opposite. Everybody expects you to score and if you do you are probably only one of several who did. But if you miss – especially in an important game – your place in the history books as a big loser is guaranteed.

    I have never ever heard a commment like “poor performance of the goalkeeper who didn’t save (enough) penalties”.
    If Krul hadn’t saved one who should then say that Van Gaal had messed up because the other goalkeeper had for sure saved one and won the game?

    1. Hi Klaus, I take your point but certainly in the English press had Krul not saved a penalty and Holland lost the shoot out they would have slaughtered the decision here!

  3. Sorry Robert but I have to disagree with your comments regarding none of the Team’s putting in an outstanding all round performance. For example Germany put four past Portugal (And probably would have done without the Sending off of Pepe.) whilst Colombia and Chile both looked impressive even in there final Games before being knocked out. I do feel that many of the side’s that we EXPECTED to perform simply haven’t (Brazil to some extent, Argentina still reliant of Messi for the most part and of course Spain being the biggest shocker.) whilst plenty of the UNDERDOGS have done themselves proud. Costa Rica topping there Group and at 85-1 showing just how MUCH of a shock that really was whilst Algeria, Iran (Against Argentina.) and the USA all punched above there weight. Even minnows Australia were better then everyone expected them to be and probably deserved a Draw Result against the Dutch.
    What HAS disappointed me is the distinct lack of GOALS. Not so much the Group Stages where we expected plenty ad were not disappointed but the last seven games have seen 0-0 inside of ninety minutes from FIVE of the Games whilst Germany could only scrape past France 1-0 and the Brazil/Colombia game offering the only ‘real’ excitement.
    I do agree with you one hundred percent with the Brazil/Germany game however that Brazil, despite being a ‘Hard nut to crack’ are carrying a few passengers at the wrong time and Germany will look to exploit this is quickly as possible. I’m thinking this could be another 0-1 Win and a Goal inside of thirty minutes once again. Indeed, although ‘On paper’ a Brazil V’s Argentina Final looks the most likely outcome it’s NOT impossible to see an All-European Final with both Germany and the Dutch going through.

  4. An All-European Final. Wouldn’t THAT be a turn up for the books!!

  5. I will go for a draw in both matches.
    I believe both games will be tight and could end
    up at least in extra time if not the dreaded Penalty
    shootout.

  6. I think its gonna be down to defenses today,and i think the Germans may come through,but then i think about the referee a Mexican and the 200million supporters which could turn the refs head being south American(who should not be ref in my eyes)that’s not neutral I’m not saying he will do anything underhand but a maybe ,i am stuck on an outcome,i think on a betting proposition can only be made by me at half time,as i think value is in the extra time and penalties,on both teams so a cockle on each at half time depending on score,also if Brazil lose the country will go NUTS due to the current situation,there happy cos there still there.

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