Two more of the main European Leagues get their season’s underway this weekend in Italy and Spain. There is not much value, betting wise, at either end of the market in Italy as it looks the most predictable of all the major leagues. Juventus come off 5 straight Scudetto wins and head into the season having signed the striker from one of their only rivals, as Higuain joins from Napoli and midfielder Pjanic joins from Roma, their other main title challenger. The loss of Pogba (replaced by Pjanic) should be not be a huge issue. Juventus lost the likes of Pirlo, Vidal and Tevez pre-season in 2015 and despite a slow start soon found their rhythm and won the league comfortably. I don’t see the personnel changes making much difference and 2/5 could well be buying money.
Napoli and Roma will probably fill the Champions League spots, and Roma would be my pick to finish second. Higuain’s departure leaves a big gap for Napoli to fill. He netted 36 times last season and I don’t think his replacement, the Polish forward Milik, will be as prolific. Roma have signed Salah permanently, Dzeko and El Shaarawy, and only lost 4 games all season last year. There is no value in any of the prices at the top of the market though, and value for these teams may be better found week to week.
At the bottom end Crotone, who came up, are favourites for relegation and have lost a number of players and their manager, so again, the market probably has it right and at 2/5 in places – again no value.
Pescara are second favourites and only finished 4th in Serie B last season. They have sold their striker Lapadula to AC Milan so it looks a significant challenge for them to remain in the top flight, odds of 11/10 though are again prohibitive for betting purposes.
Spain
In Spain, over the last few seasons, the big two has become the big 3 with Atletico Madrid joining Barca and Real as the only realistic winners of the league. Barca are odds on favourites and Real slightly odds against. Atletico look value and certainly a trading price at 12/1 with Paddy Power. They have strengthened with Gameiro and Gaitan. With Simoeone in charge, they are perfectly capable of staying in the hunt right to the very end.
As of yet neither of the big two has produced a marquee summer signing but that does not mean with a couple of weeks to go in the transfer market that they won’t.
Barca and Real prices are about right, the front 3 of Barca, Messi, Suarez and Neymar give them the edge for me, and Ronaldo will need to play as a team player and cease his tantrums with the likes of Bale if Real are to win the league. He should be in a good mood after Portugal’s triumph at the Euros.
The promoted sides Leganes, Alaves and Osasuna fill the top 3 market places for relegation and it certainly does look a struggle for all 3 of these sides. A net spend of about €5 million between them, and a high turnover of personnel at all three, makes it look like, once again, the market has it about right. It is the first time I can remember where 3 sides are odds on to be relegated.
Only one piece of betting advice surfaces from looking at these two leagues:
2 PTS Atletico Madrid to win Primera at 12/1 (Paddy Power) with a view to trade.
PLEASE NOTE that this is just a personal bet and not an official FTS bet. It’s just advice and not guaranteed to win so if you bet it, you do so by your own decision and at your own peril. Remember money is tied up for the season.
One Response
Very good bet that Ian and like you say in SPAIN it’s just a three-horse race and ATLETICO MADRID certainly not out of it. I also have a couple of quid matched on GARETH BALE to be Top Scorer in Serie A at a superb 34.00 which should trade 😉 In ITALY Inter Milan at 9.00 and AC Milan at 10.50 could trade but it’s Juventus’s League to lose really. These two sides mentioned you might be better off Backing a few games into the season as well at 12.00/13.00 prices as well. And of course it goes without saying. Look to TRADE the pair.